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NOAA Releases 2014 Hurricane Season Outlook

hurricane season

In a press conference this morning, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its official 2014 outlook for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons.

The East Coast may see below-average activity this year, thanks, in part, to the anticipated development of El Nino this summer. According to NOAA, “El Niño causes stronger wind shear, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.”

There is a 50% chance for a below-average season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-average season, the center predicts. “For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which three to six could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to two major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher),” they announced.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane OutlookBut the forecast is no reason to take preparations lightly. “Thanks to the environmental intelligence from NOAA’s network of earth observations, our scientists and meteorologists can provide life-saving products like our new storm surge threat map and our hurricane forecasts,” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “And even though we expect El Niño to suppress the number of storms this season, it’s important to remember it takes only one land-falling storm to cause a disaster.”

On the West Coast, it may be a more tumultuous summer. The outlook calls for a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The center predicts there is a 70% chance of 14 to 20 named storms, which includes 7 to 11 hurricanes, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

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“The key climate factor behind the outlook is the likely development of El Niño this summer. El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the eastern tropical Pacific, favoring more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.

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D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The eastern Pacific has been in an era of low activity for hurricanes since 1995, but this pattern will be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño.

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Next week (May 25-31) is National Hurricane Preparedness Week, and NOAA and FEMA will be offering additional tips and insight on their websites ahead of the official start of hurricane season on June 1.

Marine Losses Continue Downward Trend

The marine industry continued to see a steady decline in the number of large ships losses globally since 2002, with 94 ships lost in 2013, down 20% from 117 reported in 2012, according to a study by Allianz.

The “Safety and Shipping Review 2014” by Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty found that of ships lost, the largest number, 32, were cargo vessels; 14 were fishing vessels; and 12 were bulk shipments. Only six passenger ships were lost, the survey found. The most common cause of losses in 2013, and over  the last 12 years, was foundering (sinking or submerging). The demise of 69 ships accounted for nearly three-quarters of all losses—with bad weather a significant driver.

Worldwide there were 1,673 losses from Jan. 1, 2002-Dec. 31, 2013, with an average of 139 per year. The top geographic area for losses has been South China, Indo China, Indonesia and Philippines. The area including British Isles, North Sea, English Channel and Bay of Biscay is still ranked fourth, despite improvement. With 45 losses overall, the U.S. eastern seaboard improved in 2013, dropping out of the top 10 regions.

According to the study, January is the worst month for all casualties in the Northern Hemisphere. There were 23% more losses in January compared with the quietest month, June. In the Southern Hemisphere July sees 41% more losses than April.

The majority of losses are caused by machinery damage, the reason for most losses in marine insurance. Statistics from the International Union of Marine Insurance (IUMI) report that 40% of hull claims are machinery damage and account for 20% of costs.

The review found that while piracy is still a threat, it has also subsided. Piracy at sea reached its lowest levels in six years, with 264 attacks recorded worldwide in 2013, a 40% drop since Somali piracy peaked in 2011. Fifteen incidents were reported off Somalia in 2013, including Gulf of Aden and Red Sea incidents, down from 75 in 2012, and 237 in 2011 (including attacks attributed to Somali pirates in Gulf of Aden, Red Sea and Oman).

According to the study: “The very real threat of piracy for ships operating in the Gulf of Aden reached the general public last year as the Hollywood Oscar-nominated blockbuster Captain Phillips was released. Tom Hanks played the lead as the master of the pirated Mærsk Alabama, broadcasting the piracy problem to a much wider audience and raising awareness of its consequences. The steps that the international maritime community has taken to reduce the threat of piracy in the Gulf of Aden have been extremely successful with the number of ships seized and hostages taken in 2013 significantly down on 2012.”

Lower losses overall were attributed to a number of factors including increased regulation, which has helped the maritime industry improve its safety record. Because the quality of operations varies in different regions, however, there is a big need for universal regulations on ship safety to reduce the risk of casualties and loss of life, the survey concluded.

 

New Forecasting Method Predicts 75% Chance of El Nino in 2014

There is a 75% chance of an El Niño event in 2014, according to an early warning report published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The researchers used a new method that uses network analysis to predict weather systems up to a year ahead, instead of the usual six-month maximum of other approaches. The model successfully predicted the absence of El Niño in 2012 and 2013.

El Niño events are characterized by a warmer Pacific Ocean, which results in a disruption to the ocean-atmosphere system. This can lead to warmer temperatures worldwide, droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia, and heavy rain and flooding in parts of the U.S. and South America. If such an event occurred toward the end of 2014, the increased temperatures and drought conditions could persist through 2015.

The researchers suggested that their work might help farmers and government agencies by giving them more time to prepare and to consider investing in flood- or drought-resistant crops.

“Farmers might find it worthwhile to invest in drought- or flood-resistant varieties of crops,” Josef Ludescher and Armin Bunde told Businessweek. “A strong El Niño event in late 2014 can make 2015 a record year for global temperatures.”

The current highest record global temperatures date back to 1998, during the last strong El Niño. Given the continued increases in baseline temperature around the world, an El Niño event this year could lead to the record-breaking heat.

Last week, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center issued a similar warning. While the forecasters expect neutral conditions through the spring, a change in temperatures may “portend warming in the coming months.

El Nino Phenomenon

New Year, New Natural Disaster Emergency Plans

Along with January renewals and analyzing whether existing policies offer sufficient coverage, the new year is a perfect reminder to review company-wide emergency plans. While 2013 may have been a relatively light year for catastrophe losses, there’s no reason to assume 2014 will be, too.

Check out this infographic from Boston University’s Masters in Specialty Management program for a jump-start on identifying the risks of natural disaster and updating plans for how to handle any emergency:

Survive a Natural Disaster