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Inflation Considerations for Risk Managers and Insurance Buyers

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According to Beazley’s recent Risk & Resilience Geopolitical Report, inflation is a key area of concern for business leaders and they expect economic uncertainty to remain high through to the end of this year. High inflation impacts multiple aspects of corporate decision making, from the changing value of stock to rising employee wages and cost of borrowing. It is interesting to note that worries about inflation differ internationally; in the US, 42% of companies rated it their biggest concern, while only 33% of business leaders in the UK had it at the top of their list. Even more striking is the lack of perceived resilience to inflationary pressure, with 65% of business leaders in the U.S. and 55% globally feeling unprepared to meet the challenge.

US business leaders’ concerns about the impending impacts of inflation are justified, as financial market volatility and losses are currently driving the greatest run-up in prices that the U.S. has seen in four decades. The S&P 500 officially entered a bear market and is down more than 20% since the beginning of the year, and the prevailing sentiment in the U.S. is an expectation that inflation is only going to get worse. U.S. retail sales fell in May as supply chain challenges drove a decrease in major purchases like vehicles, and record high gas prices pulled spending away from other goods. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to try and reduce inflation, but businesses face a long road ahead as rising prices for everything from groceries to housing influence consumers’ buying power and economic confidence for the foreseeable future.

Inflation’s Impact on the Insurance Market

In light of current economic conditions, the directors and officers (D&O) insurance market is now facing several notable inflationary risks. Inflation and supply chain constraints led to higher costs of goods sold, including both raw materials and transportation/freight costs. If a company cannot or is not willing to pass the price on to the consumer, the margins will be impacted, leading to softer financial results. At the same time, as consumer prices increase due to inflation, companies (especially those in the retail and hospitality industries) may face a market with significantly less discretionary spending, leading to lower volume sales or lower sales overall. 

Amid these challenges, there are several signs pointing to a potential U.S. and, likely, global recession. While unemployment rates have been improving since the all-time highs during the peak of COVID, analysts warn of future mass layoffs. With high unemployment and higher costs, this also poses a risk to employment practices liability (EPL) insurers. Workers may look to recover lost wages through whatever means available, including bringing suits against their employer. A strong EPL policy and relationship with insurance carrier and broker can help during this time where unemployment may swing back the other way. 

Wage and labor inflation also remain a challenge in a tight (though softening) labor market as companies either cannot fully staff their businesses or are spending more to attract and retain talent. Both impact the bottom line. The insurance industry has already seen several supply chain and inflation-driven Security Class Action claims. Various companies have made claims as a result of challenged financials in the wake of strong inflationary and supply chain/labor impact. These were driven by everything from a shortage of staff to deal with consumer demand to slowed production as a result of supply chain constraints, and these cases are just the beginning.

In other lines of business, as inflation continues to rise and products become harder to get, we can expect to see increased crime activity, with higher value attributed to stolen goods due to shortages and inflation encouraging more employee theft. In the cyber market, larger ransom payouts are becoming regular and the costs to buy insurance, negotiate ransomware, and rebuild after a breach are all rising, but the need for more experts is also likely to present challenges as wage inflation rises.

Claims teams are seeing social inflation across most lines of business today, most prominently in bodily injury, wrongful death, EPL, and sexual abuse/molestation liability. This trend is driven largely by the plaintiff’s bar, which has been increasingly emboldened to tap into consumer unrest about everything that is happening in the world today. Jurors’ distrust of larger corporations and their empathy for impacted individuals are increasingly factors that the plaintiff’s bar is leveraging to return higher settlements.  

Increasing Complexity of Corporate Insurance Buying

The conflict in Ukraine was already an inflection point for the insurance markets, with hardening rates and capacity changes anticipated in some specific classes as a result. Now, the wider impact of inflationary pressure is likely to push costs (and, in turn, premiums) higher across all classes. This is bad news for insurers, and ultimately even worse news for the business owners who are insurance buyers.

Inflation brings uncertainty and demonstrates the increasing criticality of insurance in certain key areas. For those trading internationally, trade credit insurance becomes essential. With rising business pressure, D&O and EPL insurance-related risks also rise. Business interruption also becomes more likely in a world where energy supply and supply chains are both less certain. As pricing goes up, whether due to supply chain constraints or wage increases, this cannot help but impact companies’ overall performance, leaving them open to potential litigation from shareholders. In a land of rising costs and rising risks, many business owners may consider protecting their business operations as a continued priority, no matter what happens to cost.

Key Action Steps for Risk Managers

One of the most important things that risk managers can be doing in this landscape is proactively seeking to understand what is happening in the world. This includes considering not only the risks that are present, but also what is happening as a result of the inflation and social inflation trends we are seeing—namely higher costs and more pressure from the plaintiff’s bar.

With this understanding in hand, risk managers are then well-advised to call upon trusted experts, including brokers, insurance partners and third-party vendors who are available to test systems and table-top strategies. The priority should always be to find the best vendors and build long-standing relationships with them. This is the time to leverage that trust.

It is essential to be proactive when it comes to risk management. Do not wait for a crisis to come in the door and then behave reactively. Rather, prepare yourself with education and resources and then, after identifying risks unique to your business, proactively seek to mitigate them.

As inflationary risks look to be with us for the immediate future, it is critical for organizations to have a plan. Use your enterprise risk management strategies to develop responses to potential economic and geopolitical events. Communicate regularly and conservatively with shareholders. Consider diversifying your supply chain, as working with different suppliers can add to the confidence level of meeting demand levels. It is also important for businesses to demonstrate empathy for the suffering and hardships that employees and customers may be experiencing.

Many of today’s senior business leadership have not dealt with inflation, unlike the previous generation of leaders who endured double-digit inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s. Use data and rely on the experience of management that survived the Great Recession of 2008 to 2011 to help navigate these new concerns. And of course, work with your carrier partner to ensure that you are properly covered for the road ahead. If COVID-19 has taught us anything, it is that companies must be prepared and plan for the unexpected. This adage will continue to prove true as we weather the coming period of inflation-driven challenges.

Q&A: Resiliency in India

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The 2018 Lloyd’s City Risk Index was analyzed during the RIMS Risk Forum India in Mumbai, and it notes a possible turning point for the subcontinent’s cities regarding resiliency. In short, Indian cities were rated as weak, but recent government and public investments and campaigns that focus on strengthening infrastructures and people may strengthen those assessments.

During a November 14 morning session, “Assessing the Impact of Natural and Man-made Threats on India’s Economy,” Shankar Garigiparthy, country manager and CEO of Lloyd’s India discussed how much economic output (GDP) cities in India could lose annually as a consequence of various types of rare risk events – such as the Kerala floods this past July – or from more frequently occurring events such as cyberattacks.

He discussed with Risk Management Monitor reasons why he is hopeful for a resiliency turnaround in India and how the combined wills of the government, media, public and business can strengthen the country’s infrastructures and ultimately, its risk ratings.

RMM: How do India’s cities rank in Lloyd’s City Risk Index?

SG: Lloyd’s City Risk Index was published three months ago and we researched 279 cities. We found that a vast majority of cities within the subcontinent of India have been rated as very weak from a resilience point of view. They are at high risk for flood, geopolitical security, market crash, just to name a few.

RMM: What steps are being taken to improve the collective resiliency?

SG: What we have seen in last three or four years is a significant level of investment from the government in terms of building infrastructure. It’s been in the form of roads, bridges, railways, ports, and airports, there has been a significant level of investment. And it seems there is more to come. In the budget, the government has announced more – which is encouraging to see from an infrastructure-building point of view.

However, where we still see a bit of lack is in the area of insurance penetration in the country. That’s where I think insurance companies can be a useful partner and tool to mitigate some of the level of these risks.

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RMM: Could this be a chance for insurers to get in on the ground floor of India’s improvement projects?

SG: Yes.

RMM: What incidents have influenced the government to act?

SG: The Chennai floods [in 2015] and the floods in Kerala [in July]. That was a once-in-a-hundred-years occurrence. The entire state was flooded, which I think was the first of its kind. It was completely underwater.

Similarly, the Chennai floods marked another major event. Since then, monsoon has happened but the level of flooding has been managed pretty well.

In the session, we examined the Mumbai floods in 2005. And even last year, there was flooding here for a day, but within a day the water receded pretty quickly and was pumped out. The machinery kicked in and we were able to get out of it pretty well.

RMM: What led to that success?

SG: It was a combination of low tide and the government investing in the necessary pumping mechanisms to actually pump the water back into the sea, and unclog some of the stormwater drains as well. Steps are being taken, slowly but steadily.

RMM: What other institutions are taking measures to build resiliency?

SG: There are a few companies [which I won’t name] that are leading the way and it is encouraging to see that.

The media is also equally playing a fairly significant role as well. That’s also helping because public awareness is something that is critical. The media is raising awareness in terms of the importance of protecting your infrastructure and environment and the need for trees and planting.

RMM: Would you agree that the will to change and improve existing infrastructures is as important as the funding?

SG: I think it’s all there. The government has shown willingness to improve infrastructure. The people have demanded it, so there is a push and a pull coming from both sides. And we are seeing that development happen. Compared to where we were five or ten years ago and where we are now, there’s been a massive change.

There is still more that can be done. I’m not saying that we’re there yet. But it’s not an easy thing, as well.

Given India’s geography and how the political scenario is within the country, we will always be exposed to natural catastrophes.

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Flooding is going to be a constant phenomenon for us.

There is investment being done but it’s patchy. In some states there has been fantastic infrastructure investment and in others, less so. I think that has got to be addressed and that’s where the public [should be] demanding more actions there, where infrastructure investment has not been up to the mark.

Santa’s Impact on Business and Finance

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Just as Santa Claus brings gifts down chimneys, his name alone also carries the stigma of risks that transcend all industries. Indeed, thanks to the logistics of his job we better understand the risks of reindeer-led aviation. But perhaps more importantly, Kris Kringle’s presence has long influenced finance and business.

Mentioning him on Wall Street this year may trigger an underlying wealth management risk. The annual “Santa Claus Rally” marks an uptick in the stock market and a 1.4% average return of the S&P 500 index from the last five trading days of the year through the first two of January. This phenomenon can be attributable to people spending and investing a bit extra – possibly from holiday bonuses – leading to a generally happy mood on and off trading room floors.

Since 1950, the market has declined only 15 times during the Santa Claus Rally period. But due to the uncertainty surrounding the tax reform plan making its way through Congress, that 1-in-4.4 chance of downturn is on the minds of cynical investors. As reported recently by Investopedia, “Some bears think that, if Congress fails to make appreciable progress on tax reform before their holiday recess, Scrooge or Krampus will elbow Santa aside, and send the markets downward at year-end.”

And similar to the way Punxatawney Phil seeing his shadow on Groundhog Day can predict six more weeks of winter, Santa skipping stock exchanges’ chimneys may indicate a frosty new year. According to The Stock Trader’s Almanac, some of the more recent holiday seasons without a rally included the last two, as well as in late 2007 and early 2008 leading up to the financial crisis, and just before the dotcom bubble burst in the 1999-2000 holiday period.

Santa’s influence isn’t just relegated to stock speculation and short-term investments, however. Some executives and employees may emulate his work ethic without realizing it. All eyes turn to him in good times and especially during the bad. He’s trying to meet year-end quotas while keeping a workforce happy and focused. Plus, Santa has the burden of trans-meridian travel with frequent stops over a 24-hour period, which is sure to cause jet lag. Sound familiar?

While one all-nighter might not have major long-term effects, regular ones could lead to shift work disorder, which has been linked to chronic diseases and illnesses. Anyone known to “Santa Claus it” too frequently may accumulate a large “sleep debt” over time. According to the Sleep Foundation, “if you work at night, you’re also going against your biological clock, which is naturally cueing you to become less alert and encouraging you to sleep during the nighttime hours.”

This can lead to seasonal “presenteeism,” an issue Risk Management magazine recently explored, detailing pain management in the workforce. Presenteeism occurs when a worker inhabits a space at their job, but “is unable to focus and perform as expected” and can be an even greater drag on productivity than absenteeism. The condition is indiscriminate – it can affect interns and CEOs – and may cause someone to “miss out not only on the income, but also the sense of meaning, purposefulness and belonging that can be gained from a job. Initial distress may lead to chronic anxiety and even depression.”

Identify these risks now, so that the mention of Santa Claus doesn’t put a humbug in your eggnog this holiday season.

In a Changing World, Questions For the CRO

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Before the financial crisis in 2008-2009, many businesses didn’t think of risk as something to be proactively managed. After the crisis, however, that paradigm shifted. Companies began perceiving risk management as a way to protect both their reputations and their stakeholders.

Today, risk management is not just recommended, it is considered crucial to successful operations and is required by federal and state law. The SEC’s Proxy Disclosure Enhancements, enacted in 2010, mandate that organizations provide information regarding board leadership structure and the company’s risk management practices.

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Company leadership is required to have a direct role in risk oversight, and any risk management ineffectiveness must be disclosed.

The CRO’s role

Volatility in the current business environment—a confluence of factors including transfers of power, the world economy and individual markets—is nothing new. Political transitions have always been accompanied by new agendas and shifting regulations, economies have always experienced bull and bear markets, and the evolution of technology constantly changes our processes.

Even so, recent events like Brexit, the uncertainty of a new administration’s regulatory initiatives, and thousands of annual data breaches have contributed to an unprecedented atmosphere of fear and doubt. To navigate this environment, the chief risk officer needs to adopt a proactive risk management approach. Enterprise-wide risk assessments grant the visibility and insight needed to present an accurate picture of the company’s greatest risks. This visibility is what the board needs to safely recognize opportunity for innovation and expansion into new markets.

To grow a business safely—by innovating and adding to products/services and expanding into new markets—risk professionals should not focus on identifying risk by individual country. This approach naturally leads to a prioritization of “large-dollar” countries, which aren’t necessarily correlated with greater risk. Countries that contribute a small percentage of overall revenue can still cause major, systemic risk management failures and scandals.

A better approach is to look at risk across certain regions; how might expanding the business into Europe, for example, create new challenges for senior management?

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Are there sufficient controls in place to mitigate the risks that have been identified?

When regional risks are aggregated to create a holistic picture, it becomes possible for the board to make sure expansion efforts are aligned with strategic goals.

Three processes that require ERM

Risk management is an objective process, and best practices, such as pushing risk assessments down to front-line process owners who are closest to operational risk, should be adhered to regardless of the current state of the international business arena.

While today’s political climate has generated a significant amount of media strife, it’s important not to let emotion influence decision-making. By providing the host organization with a standardized framework and centralized data location, enterprise risk management enables managers to apply the same basic approach across departments and levels.

This is particularly important when an organization expands internationally, which involves compliance with new sets of regulations and staying competitive. Performing due diligence on an ad hoc basis is neither effective nor sustainable. Instead, the process should follow the same best-practice process as domestic risk management efforts:

  1. Identify and assess. Make risk assessments a standard part of every budget, project or initiative. This involves front-line risk assessments from subject matter experts, revealing key risks and processes/departments likely to be affected by those risks. For example, financial scrutiny is no longer a concern just for banks. Increased attempts to fight terrorism mean transactions of all kinds are becoming subject to more review. Anti-bribery and anti-corruption processes estimate and quantify both vulnerability and liability.
  2. Mitigate key risks. Connect mitigation activities to the resources they depend on and the processes they’re associated with. ERM creates transparency into this information, eliminating inefficiency associated with updating/tracking risks managed by another department.
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    Control evaluation is the most expensive part of operations. Use risk management to prioritize this work and reduce expenses and liability.

  3. Monitor the effectiveness of controls with tests, metrics, and incident collection for risks and controls alike. This ensures performance standards are maintained as operations and the business environment evolve. Evidence of an effective control environment prevents penalties and lawsuits for negligence. The bar for negligence is getting lower; technology is pulling the curtain back not only internally but (through social media and news) to the public as well.

Lastly, the CRO role is increasingly accountable for failures in managing risk along with other senior leaders and boards—look no further than Wells Fargo.