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Global Heat Waves Signal Climate Risks

India is currently suffering under a heat wave that has lasted over a month, with temperatures reaching a record 118 degrees Fahrenheit (48 degrees Celsius) in New Delhi on June 10 and 122 degrees (50 degrees Celsius) in the western city of Churu. The death toll has been estimated to be at least 36, though some sources put the number at more than 150. Europe is also preparing for its own massive heat wave this week, with temperatures expected to be 36 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) higher than the seasonal average of 72 degrees (22 degrees Celsius).

This pattern of heat waves has become a yearly occurrence across the globe. Europe faced similar heat last year, as did Asia, with Japan experiencing record-breaking temperatures in 2018, which sent more than 71,000 to hospitals, killing 138. North America also saw extended higher temperatures in 2018, with 41 heat records across the United States, and heat-related deaths overwhelming Montreal’s city morgue.

Experts say that these global record-breaking incidents are the result of climate change, and likely forecast a new normal of dangerous summer heat.

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According to Stefan Rahmstorf, co-chair of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research (PIK), “Monthly heat records all over the globe occur five times as often today as they would in a stable climate. This increase in heat extremes is just as predicted by climate science as a consequence of global warming caused by the increasing greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil and gas.

” French national meteorological service Météo-France echoed these concerns, saying that heat waves’ frequency “is expected to double by 2050.” And according to a 2017 study from The Lancet Planetary Health journal, the number of deaths resulting from weather-related disasters could skyrocket in the future, killing as many as 152,000 people each year between 2071 and 2100, more than 50 times greater than the average annual deaths from 1980 to 2010.

As Risk Management has previously reported, these changes are also already impacting business operations globally, with direct economic losses from climate-related disasters (including heat waves) increased 151% from 1998 to 2017, according to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Heat waves have serious effects on business operations, impacting things like road conditions and agriculture, as well as workers’ health and safety. More than 15 million U.S. workers have jobs requiring time outdoors, and according to the World Bank, even for indoor workers, productivity declines by 2% per degree Celsius above room temperature.

Many countries have taken steps to mitigate the effects of heat waves on their populations. For example, since 2016, India has been providing shelter for homeless people, opening water stations for hydration, cutting building heat absorption by painting roofs white and imposing working hour changes, curfews and restrictions on outdoor activities. These efforts have successfully reduced heat-related deaths from more than 2,400 in 2015 to 250 in 2017.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommends similar steps to the ones India is taking, as well as ensuring that energy and water systems are properly functioning, establishing hotlines for reporting cases of high-risk individuals and encouraging energy conservation to reduce the chances of overwhelming electric systems. The U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) recommends that employers and workers facing higher temperatures in the workplace pay close attention for the signs of heat stroke, and keep three words in mind: water, rest and shade.

While these on-the-ground measures can reduce the immediate effects on workers and vulnerable populations like the elderly, children and the homeless, PIK’s Rahmstorf warns that “Only rapidly reducing fossil fuel use and hence CO2 emissions can prevent a disastrous further increase of weather extremes linked to global heating.”

Texas Study Shows Business Impact of Major Storms

A new study conducted by Texas A&M University at Galveston and the Texas General Land Office examines the 50-year impact of a major storm hitting Galveston Bay on the Texas coast near Houston, including secondary effects to the economy. The study focused on catastrophic “500-year” flood events (with a one-in-500 chance of occurring in a year), which, while rare, have hit the state 3 times in recent years. This includes Hurricane Harvey, which struck Louisiana and Texas in August 2017, causing $125 billion in damage, according to the National Hurricane Center.

These larger storms have serious economic impacts locally, regionally and nationally. Over a 50-year time frame, the study notes, “the projected economic impact on Texas’ Gross State Product (GSP) of storm surge without coastal protection is substantial.” In the wake of a 500-year magnitude event, the regional petroleum and chemical manufacturing sectors would see their output decline by 19% (or $175.4 billion) in lost revenue, as well as a projected 17% loss of petroleum jobs (approximately 155,000 jobs) and a petroleum price increase of 13%. It would also impact the region’s housing, with the sector declining by 8%, or $39.5 billion lost in sales.

A 500-year surge event striking Galveston Bay would also have serious impacts for national economic activity, especially because the region processes 25% of the petroleum and more than half of the jet fuel used in the United States. According to the study, U.S. GDP could drop 1.1% (approximately $883 billion), U.S. exports would suffer a 4% drop (approximately $1.66 billion) and “30 states not including Texas will have lower GSP in response to a surge event in Texas.”

“The Galveston Bay region is one of the most flood- and surge-prone areas in the United States with vast amounts of vulnerable residential, commercial, industrial and petro-chemical areas at risk,” said Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush. “This study clearly demonstrates that, without any new protections in place, future storm surges could have substantial and lingering impacts on Texas’ economy and send lasting ripples through other economic sectors nationwide.”

Turning to mitigation, the authors of the report assessed the potential measure of a 17-foot “coastal spine,” also called a “coastal storm suppression system,” made up of “connecting seawalls and fortified dunes/levees along the coastline to retractable gates.” In October, the Army Corps of Engineers released the study Coastal Texas Protection and Restoration Feasibility Study proposing a similar example of this sort of structure—74 miles of barrier, including “floodwalls (inverted T-walls), floodgates (both highway and railroad floodgates), seawall improvements, drainage structures, pump stations, and surge barrier gates.”

The researchers estimate that a coastal spine would reduce the region’s lost petroleum and chemical manufacturing sector losses to 3% and 5%, respectively, a 1% reduction in regional unemployment, and a 1% increase in petroleum product prices. The report also claims that a coastal spine mitigation plan would reduce Houston-Galveston regional insurance premiums by as much as 28%. This could provide significant relief for insurers as well. Even though insurance and reinsurance only covered about 30% of the total wind and flood damage from Hurricane Harvey, this amounted to tens of millions in losses.

In terms of construction cost, the Texas researchers polled residents of three local counties and found that 56% “believed that both government and port industries should be responsible for financing the coastal barrier system,” and a majority agreed that some form of taxation should support its construction.

Press Release: RIMS Commends Congressional Foresight to Extend Flood Program Prior to Government Shutdown

National Flood Insurance Program May 31st Extension Avoids Dangerous Lapse in Coverage

NEW YORK – In the waning hours prior to the U.S. Federal Government’s partial shutdown, RIMS, the risk management society™, welcomed congressional action to extend the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Extended through May 31, 2019, the program will become the responsibility of incoming House Financial Services Chairwoman Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) to draft a longer-term reauthorization.

A long-term reauthorized NFIP bill would provide critical financial support to a wide range of businesses experiencing flood emergencies and continues to be a RIMS legislative priority. The NFIP was the focus of the Society’s 2018 Legislative Summit held in October in Washington, DC. Additionally, this November, RIMS signed a joint letter with other insurance, real estate and banking organizations, urging Congress to take immediate action to avoid a lapse in the program.

“Business leaders, especially those located in areas of the country most susceptible to flood disasters, can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that an NFIP lapse has been avoided,” said RIMS CEO Mary Roth. “While RIMS is happy that the NFIP received an extension, the Society will continue to work diligently with elected officials, offering our support to help create a more permanent, long-term solution.”

RIMS’ Political Action Committee (RISK PAC) has been soliciting donations to allow the Society to continue to engage and support Members of Congress who have demonstrated their commitment to the reauthorization of the NFIP. For more information about RISK PAC or to donate, visit www.riskpac.org.

RIMS Risk Forum 2018 India Kicks Off In Mumbai

MUMBAI – The inaugural RIMS Risk Forum 2018 India launched on November 13, and leading risk professionals from India and Asia-Pacific countries met for two days to address the challenges facing companies in the region. In a country of 1.3 billion people, expectations are for India’s risk management profession to grow, though some presenters acknowledged the proactive need to fill a potential talent gap.

During the opening keynote address, Dr. Viswanathan Ragunathan, CEO and general manager of the Varalakshmi Foundation said that examining the role of risk in Indians’ behavior and culture will initiate the dialogue among students and aspiring professionals.

“We are obviously a contradiction,” he said. “We are, at once, eternal optimists and fatalistic. At one level you can relate to what I’m saying in that Indians do not take too much risk in their day-to-day lives. Yet anyone who has taken the Mumbai trains knows…it’s almost as if we have a death wish.”

Ragunathan also discussed approaches he tends to use to assess risk, including viewing them in a VUCA environment (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity), where one weighs how much of a situation is known against the results of controllable actions and their predictability.

“The management of volume,” he said, is ultimately at the heart of India’s challenges, and that issue is exacerbated by interconnected risks, such as a dense population and struggling infrastructure. He proposed transparency and broad communication within the Indian risk management community as starting points for solutions.

“The risk manager who understands the risk but does not share it widely does not help,” he said.

As the forum progressed, ISO31000 implementation, natural disasters and resilience, infrastructure, risk frameworks, data storage and diversity hiring practices were some of topics that received special focus on Tuesday.

“The State of Risk Management in India” was a Marsh-led panel on the findings from the newly-released, India-wide survey on risk management practices co-conducted by RIMS. The report found that risk managers are a crossroads in India, where they can assume greater leadership roles that transcend just compliance and insurance matters and can expand their knowledge base, hone their skillsets and gain access to best practices, tools and technology.

During “Thinking About Thinking in Risk Management,” Peter Young, PhD of the University of St. Thomas’ Opus, discussed the major questions facing risk managers today. He discussed how, according to his findings, experience rises dealing with uncertainty – as opposed to risk – as one looks further up on the corporate ladder.

“Risk is uncertainty when you have the capacity to measure it, and when you get to the executive suite you hardly ever deal with risk at all because you’re responsible for the strategy,” he said. “I would submit that’s broadly true among organizations at all levels. We are little ships bobbing in a big sea of uncertainty.

“[Executives] can bring a level of comfort operating in an environment of uncertainty. That turned out to be only partly true, but we think it’s an abiding truth that is slowly revealing itself.”

“Diversity in Corporate India” inspired some spirited discussions about how women’s voices and the concept of assumption are emerging as integral parts of hiring practices throughout organizations in India. Panelists were Ragunthian, Praveen Gupta, CEO of Raheja QBE General Insurance Co., and Carissa Hickling, Talent Acquisition Strategy and Technology Global Consultant for Siemens Technology India.

They spoke of how efforts to better represent women have progressed. Additionally, gay and lesbian communities are experiencing a new level of acceptance now since September, when the Supreme Court of India ruled parts of Section 377 – which was introduced in 1864 – was unconstitutional for criminalizing homosexuality. The panel agreed that while talent itself should win above all else, they acknowledged that it was a sign of progress for the nation and should be thought of as such by its corporate sectors. Hickling explained how Indian companies can now use be more open-minded in their hiring and promotion practices.

“When we look at onboarding plans and organizations, these are the moments of truth,” she said. “We can have conversations about making a small change to our HR system because this is an opportunity to change the first impression of our organization.”

She added that Siemens leadership is taking the initiative to recognize same-sex partners when discussing health benefits and taking the progress a step further extending the welcoming to transgender workers. “This is all happening very fast,” she said, “but it is a time when an organization can demonstrate that this is a time when this does matter.”

For more coverage of the forum, visit Risk Management Monitor’s Q&A with Shankar Garigiparthy.

Live RIMScast coverage of the forum is also available. Download Speaking with Leaders in Risk Management Part I and Part II.

And exclusively for RIMS members, download Peter Young’s audio live from Mumbai: Thinking about Thinking in Risk Management: New Skills for the Future.