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NOAA Releases 2014 Hurricane Season Outlook

hurricane season

In a press conference this morning, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its official 2014 outlook for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons.

The East Coast may see below-average activity this year, thanks, in part, to the anticipated development of El Nino this summer. According to NOAA, “El Niño causes stronger wind shear, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.”

There is a 50% chance for a below-average season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-average season, the center predicts. “For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which three to six could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to two major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher),” they announced.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane OutlookBut the forecast is no reason to take preparations lightly. “Thanks to the environmental intelligence from NOAA’s network of earth observations, our scientists and meteorologists can provide life-saving products like our new storm surge threat map and our hurricane forecasts,” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “And even though we expect El Niño to suppress the number of storms this season, it’s important to remember it takes only one land-falling storm to cause a disaster.”

On the West Coast, it may be a more tumultuous summer. The outlook calls for a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The center predicts there is a 70% chance of 14 to 20 named storms, which includes 7 to 11 hurricanes, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

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“The key climate factor behind the outlook is the likely development of El Niño this summer. El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the eastern tropical Pacific, favoring more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.

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D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The eastern Pacific has been in an era of low activity for hurricanes since 1995, but this pattern will be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño.

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Next week (May 25-31) is National Hurricane Preparedness Week, and NOAA and FEMA will be offering additional tips and insight on their websites ahead of the official start of hurricane season on June 1.

RIMS Risk Maturity Model: ERM Approach and Process Management

Last week, we introduced the latest findings from studies of the RIMS Risk Maturity Model. In an effort to explain the model and results of the study more fully, it’s beneficial to break the RMM into each of its attributes. Here we’ll examine the first two attributes of an effective ERM program, ERM Based Approach and ERM Process Management.

ERM Based Approach

The emphasis of this attribute is to move organizations from an old, obsolete style of governance to a more holistic, integrated approach. Old-style governance is focused on regulatory compliance and silo specific risk management. The problem with this approach is it leaves the organization exposed to risk that isn’t governed by regulatory mandates, as well as cross functional risk that may be systemic to the company.

We see examples of failures in this approach all the time. West Virginia’s water contamination crisis, for example, was caused by a series of risks with inadequate controls—the chemical tank was not adequately surveyed, the employees were not directed to immediately report the leak, even the water filtration organization wrongly estimated that it could filter the chemicals out. None of these entities were at fault from a regulatory perspective, but they were still on the hook for millions in remediation (the chemical plant filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in January).

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An ERM approach moves organizations past regulatory concerns, which are only a subset of the overall risk universe. This requires a number of activities that the Risk Maturity Model identifies as drivers of ERM Maturity—tone from the top, assimilation into front line activities, risk ownership—which when combined result in a more risk-aware enterprise.

RIMS Risk Maturity Model: ERM Process Management

With a new governance mindset in place, organizations can move to applying a risk-based process framework of Identify, Assess, Evaluate, Mitigate and Monitor within each business process.

The RMM assesses the degree to which these activities are pervasive inside business processes. Many executives misinterpret these processes as unique to ERM, when in fact the steps are iterative, constantly reoccurring within organizations but without any defined process or standardizations.

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The key to ERM process management is to create a common language and structure so areas can better transfer knowledge to each other where beneficial.  This is done by integrating these framework steps into the business in a way that provides accountability, repeatability, and adequate reporting. A great example is the Vendor Management Governance function. Vendor management is frequently tasked with identifying critical vendors, assessing their risk (such as “due diligence”) and then managing through mitigation (contracts, insurance certificates) and monitoring (shipping times, order completion).

The problem is that vendor management, like other functions, is operating independently with too little information exchanged between vendor management and other governance functions.

Why is this important?

Strategic imperatives are by nature cross-functional, but are rarely linked to processes and activities on the front line. When not linked, risks to corporate objectives are either not addressed or treated differently by the business processes. This alignment is a critical driver of ERM maturity. Organizations that can effectively communicate goals—not just at the corporate level, but down to the front lines—are better equipped to achieve results and elevate concerns.

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Interested in seeing how this approach differs from traditional governance? Watch our short video on Strategic Risk Management.

The World’s Most Resilient Cities

Toronto most resilient city

How do you invest, source and expand responsibly?

Picking the right place to do so may make or break your efforts. At least, that’s the theory of London-based property company Grosvenor. With that in mind, the company analyzed 160 data sets to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the world’s “50 most important cities” to determine which are the most resilient, with resilience defined as “the ability of cities to continue to function as centers of production, human habitation, and cultural development despite the challenges posed by climate change, population growth, declining resource supply, and other paradigm shifts.”

Grosvenor first measured vulnerability by looking at climate threats, environmental degradation (including pollution and overconsumption due to sprawl), resources, infrastructure and community cohesion. For the next half of the equation, according to the Guardian, “Adaptive capacity, or a city’s ability to prevent and mitigate serious threats, was a combination of governance (high value here on democracy, freedom of speech, community participation, transparency, accountability and long-term leadership vision), strong institutions, learning capacity (including good technical universities), disaster planner and finally funding (from budget to credit and access to global funding).”

Of particular note, eight of the weakest 20 cities are in BRIC countries, and some of the cities where population and industry growth are waiting to boom may pose the greatest risks.

New Climate Change Report Highlights Risk Management Strategies

Global Warming

This week, a new report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change summarized the ways climate change is already impacting individuals and ecosystems worldwide and strongly cautioned that conditions are getting worse. Focusing on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, the panel’s latest work offers insight on economic loss and prospective supply chain interruptions that should be of particular note for risk managers—and repeatedly highlights principles of the discipline as critical approaches going forward.

Key risks the report identified with high confidence, span sectors and regions include:

i. Risk of death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and small island developing states and other small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and sea-level rise.

ii. Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large urban populations due to inland flooding in some regions.

iii. Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency services.

iv. Risk of mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat, particularly for vulnerable urban populations and those working outdoors in urban or rural areas.

v. Risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban and rural settings.

vi. Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid regions.

vii. Risk of loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for coastal livelihoods, especially for fishing communities in the tropics and the Arctic.

viii. Risk of loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for livelihoods.

The report highlights more sector-specific risks, and one table even highlight the panel’s perception of the role of risk management in the future of climate change policy and planning:

IPCC Chart

On the whole, the report lays out many familiar risk management approaches and how they can be best applied to evaluating the risks of climate change and how to mitigate them. Perhaps the environment is warming to risk-informed decision-making as well.