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Q&A: Cape Town’s ‘Day Zero’

On March 22, annual World Water Day will be especially relevant, as the United Nations and its co-sponsors hope to raise global awareness of water risks—particularly in Cape Town, South Africa. As we previously reported, a diminishing water supply is that city’s top priority, as it is counting down to a possible “Day Zero” (which had been set for July 9, but the City has stopped providing a date), when it could effectively become the first major city to run dry.

One of World Water Day’s partners is World Wide Fund For Nature South Africa (WWF-SA), an arm of what was formerly known as the World Wildlife Fund. Christine Colvin, senior manager of Freshwater for WWF-SA, recently discussed Cape Town’s struggles and how other major cities and businesses can learn from the preparedness plan and efforts to avoid a total drought.

Risk Management Monitor: Cape Town, which has 4 million residents, has a preparedness plan in effect that includes rationing among 200 water distribution points for 25 liters per person. Do you feel this plan is sustainable?

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Christine Colvin: At this stage, the general consensus is that Day Zero is not as imminent a threat as it was earlier in the year, and in all likelihood, there will be some rain and augmentation schemes will start to come online before dams drop to the critical 13.5% (which would activate the disaster plan).

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Consequently, the major

push is to encourage citizens to stay within their current daily limit of 50 liters of water per person, per day to see us through to the rainy season and beyond. If we are able to achieve this objective, the hope is that we should push out Day Zero as far as possible, thus buying the city time to bring on augmentation schemes.

RMM: How could Cape Town officials explore nature-based solutions (this year’s World Water Day campaign) to its water challenges?

Colvin: Ecological infrastructure is the foundation of water security and the first link in the water value chain. If our catchments are healthy and functional they deliver better quality, more reliable yields of water into our dams and aquifers. If they are invaded with alien vegetation or degraded by over-grazing or over-burning then they yield less water and more silt that will eventually destroy any downstream infrastructure we build to deliver water to our homes and farms. WWF-SA actively advocates the protection of water source areas through, among other things, water stewardship and catchment clearance of alien vegetation and has actively communicated this approach to the City of Cape Town during this drought period.

In our communications to the general public, we also encourage better stewardship of existing natural water sources such as groundwater and rivers, and promoting a water-wise culture. Our stewardship work in the Western Cape, the province in which Cape Town is located, focuses strongly on the agricultural sector which is a key industry for the region.

RMM: What steps can a major city take to prepare for a drought?

Colvin: Our Wednesday Water File on international case studies highlights many pertinent actions, perhaps best summarized in the Australian example:

  • Invest in fixing leaking infrastructure—one of the most cost-effective measures to improve water supplies
  • Introduce a demand management program which includes strict new legal requirements on business and domestic water use, coupled with a major education campaign
  • Diversify water supplies so if one source fails others can be drawn on, among them: dams, desalination, recycled water, rainwater tanks, groundwater, and storm water harvesting
  • Create a water grid which links major regional water supplies so water can be moved to where it is needed 

RMM: How is World Water Day raising awareness to the situation in Cape Town?

Colvin: While water is top of mind in Cape Town, the intention is to remind all South Africans that we live in a water-stressed country and the protection of strategic Water Source Areas and their natural capital is a national project. Water source areas are particularly important—making up 8% of South Africa’s land area but delivering 50% of our river flow to the rest of the country. Good management of these high rainfall mountainous headwater areas delivers a high return on investment downstream.

World Water Day is an important time to reflect on the relationship between water and nature.

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Many, but not all, residents of Cape Town are now aware of the “new normal” in which we are likely to experience much drier periods and have to conserve water but it remains vital to reinforce the message that water does not come from a tap—it comes from nature.

Cape Town’s Water Shortage Approaching ‘Day Zero’

Risk Management magazine recently covered the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 2018 Global Risks Report, in which environmental and technological risks dominate the worldwide threat landscape. The WEF ranked water crises as the fifth-highest risk based on impact, downgraded from the number one spot in 2015. But a diminishing water supply is certainly the top priority in Cape Town, South Africa, which is counting down to an increasingly imminent “Day Zero,” when it will effectively become the first major city to run dry.

In preparation for “Day Zero,” which is predicted to occur on July 9 (although it has been rescheduled several times), officials advised Cape Town’s 4 million residents to limit water use to 50 liters (13.

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2 gallons) per person per day, hoping to stretch the supply as far possible. Here’s how the Day Zero date has been calculated:

While assessing its own water supply risks, the Philly Voice equated that amount of water to “…a 90-second shower, two brushings of the teeth, one toilet flush, one cooked meal, a sink-full to wash dishes and a half-gallon of drinking water.”

Cape Town also has tariffs to help finance water and sanitation services and drive down demand of this basic human need. Nevertheless, the dams that supply most of the city’s water are only at 25% capacity as water usage reportedly remains well above targets. Once the dams reach 13.5% capacity, Cape Town intends to shut off the municipal water supply to all but essential services (like hospitals). Residents will then be allowed a daily 25-liter (6.6 gallon) water ration that they must collect from one of 200 water stations, which will be overseen by armed guards.

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Researchers from Stellenbosch University, located in the Western Cape province of South Africa provided a thorough evaluation of the preparedness plan’s feasibility, particularly during the post-Day Zero period. Taking a risk management approach of assuming no additional supply until the next rainy season, they called for strategies that either double the number of distribution points or increase the number of taps and water pressure at each of the 200 points:

“But even these strategies won’t help if Cape Town doesn’t address the reality of conflict and related delays. These are unpredictable and incalculable. They are also the greatest indication for why Day Zero should be avoided at all costs.”

As Risk Management Monitor reported in 2016, “the world’s largest underground water reserves in Africa, Eurasia and the Americas are under stress, with many of them being drawn down at unsustainable rates. Nearly two billion people rely on groundwater that is considered under threat.”

Water Foundry Founder and CEO Will Sarni recently offered a six-step strategy that other cities can take to avoid future Day Zeroes; the plan calls for the combined efforts of private sector leaders and public sector authorities:

“In building a solution, we call for a greater role for market forces balanced with regulatory oversight. In particular, the private sector has an essential role to play in devising technology and infrastructure solutions.

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But we have to incentivize companies to develop these solutions and then reward those that succeed. We applaud the initiatives of companies such as Coca-Cola Peninsula BeveragesABInBev and others, but we need much more.”

The BBC has listed 11 other major international cities that may be faced with a similar water supply crisis.

New Bill Would Toughen Calif. Dam Inspections

DWR Photo: Lake Oroville on Jan. 19, 2018 with lake levels at 707 feet.

A year after the spillway collapse at the Oroville Dam, leading to evacuations of almost 200,000 residents and a beat-the-clock patching job to avoid a break in the tallest dam in the United States, new legislation to strengthen inspections of dams awaits approval of California Gov. Jerry Brown.

The bill would require annual inspections for high hazard dams, raise inspection standards and require consultation with independent experts every 10 years, according to ABC News.

As reported by Risk Management Magazine, problems at the Oroville Dam began when the dam’s main sluice was damaged after a winter season of record rain and snowfall, following five years of drought. Torrential rainfall caused water levels to rise so quickly that large amounts needed to be released to prevent the dam from rupturing and sending a wall of water to the communities below.

A recent report of the root-cause of the spillway failure by the Independent Forensic Team (IFC), which includes members of the Association of State Dam Safety Officials and the United States Society of Dams, notes that:

There was no single root cause of the Oroville Dam spillway incident, nor was there a simple chain of events that led to the failure of the service spillway chute slab, the subsequent overtopping of the emergency spillway crest structure, and the necessity of the evacuation order. Rather, the incident was caused by a complex interaction of relatively common physical, human, organizational, and industry factors, starting with the design of the project and continuing until the incident. The physical factors can be placed into two general categories:

  • Inherent vulnerabilities in the spillway designs and as-constructed conditions, and subsequent chute slab deterioration

  • Poor spillway foundation conditions in some locations

The IFC report concludes that all dam owners in the state need to “reassess current procedures” in light of its findings.

According to the IFC:

“The fact that this incident happened to the owner of the tallest dam in the United States, under regulation of a federal agency, with repeated evaluation by reputable outside consultants, in a state with the leading dam safety regulatory program, is a wake-up call for everyone involved in dam safety. Challenging current assumptions on what constitutes ‘best practice’ in our industry is overdue.”

Initial response to the spillway failure included erosion mitigation for both spillways during the incident, sediment removal and installation of temporary transmission lines at a cost of $160 million, According to the DWR. Phase-two includes removal of the original 730 feet of the upper chute, replacing it with structural concrete.

62% of Impacted Companies Lacked Hurricane Prep in 2017

A majority of senior executives of large U.S. companies with operations in Texas, Florida or Puerto Rico admit to being unprepared for last year’s hurricanes that devastated their communities, according to a survey by FM Global. While 64% of respondents said the hurricanes had an adverse impact on their operations, a full 62% said they were not fully prepared.

“These candid admissions drive home a fundamental truth about catastrophe,” Louis Gritzo, vice president and manager of research at FM Global said in a statement.

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“People routinely fail to understand or acknowledge the magnitude of risk until they’ve experienced a fateful event.”

One reason for a lack of natural-hazard preparation is imprecise terminology, he said. Being located in a “100-year flood” zone, for example, “does not mean you have 99 years to plan—but that there is a 1% chance of such a flood every year.” Another reason for insufficient preparation is over-reliance on insurance, which cannot restore the market share, brand equity and shareholder value lost to competitors.

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The study found that as a result of hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria:

  • 57% of all respondents said they will put in place or enhance their business continuity or disaster recovery plans.
  • 40% plan to invest more in risk management, property loss prevention, and/or reassess their supply chain risk management strategy.
  • 25% will reassess their insurance coverages or their insurers.

FM Global commissioned market research firm ORC International to survey 101 senior financial executives at Fortune 1000-size organizations by phone in October through November 2017.