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How the Internet of Things Benefits Risk Management

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An increasingly digital world is resulting in companies across all industries reassessing how they approach risk management. Thanks to the connectedness of devices brought about by the Internet of Things (IoT), executives have much more information at their disposal for assessing risk than before.

IoT is a network of devices that collect and exchange data—think back to the classic example of your fridge ordering fresh milk before it runs out. This is quickly becoming a fact for businesses that rely more and more on being connected to remote devices for competitive advantage.

For risk managers, IoT boils down to introducing a layer of technology on top of the business. Operations do not have to be reinvented. This provides organizations that are reliant on managing risks with an indispensable tool.

Increased, relevant real-time data

In the insurance industry, this promises much more than just monitoring the location of a vehicle, the temperature of its load, and the performance of a driver. By equipping a company with more sensors and devices linked to the internet, organizations are able to gather significantly more real-time data to drive business value. This also has a big impact on managing risks.

For example, when a contractor’s portable toilets get dropped off, there is often no physical address to use. This creates complications when another driver or team has to locate the units a few days later for cleaning and maintenance. Using internet-linked sensors, however, the provider can easily find the toilets and quickly improve operational efficiencies. Another example is using IoT to assist in tagging assets with Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tags. This assists with monitoring everything from the service intervals on equipment like cranes to ensuring that generators have the correct fuel levels.

The growth of IoT is also seeing a massive uptake in interest from startups to look at exploiting demand with innovative solutions.

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Wearable devices for e-health monitoring, for example, presents an opportunity for consumers to take more control towards preventative care and gives healthcare professionals richer, real-time insight on patient behavior during treatments.

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IoT gives decision-makers the ability to spot trends, adapt to changing market conditions and improve their strategies. What’s more, an IoT-led approach can be applied to any business—whether a retailer, medical practice, startup, or even a construction company.

Managing IoT risks

Despite the advantages, companies need to be mindful of how to protect against IoT risks, such as gaining access to information being fed from devices back to the head office. Security, as with any new piece of technology, has to be an integral part of utilizing IoT in the company.

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Scanning for vulnerabilities now extends beyond the network and devices such as smartphones, tablets, and laptops. IT departments need to ensure the security of machine-to-machine units, RFID tags, and so on. Fortunately, none of this is insurmountable. Taking due diligence and evaluating the cyber security strategy on an on-going basis should be a matter of course in a digital world. Again, IoT is providing the impetus to do so.

Relying on IoT as an enabling technology means risk managers are committing to the digital age. The payoff is that technology can give organizations greater flexibility in their approaches to efficiency, cost reduction and risk mitigation than in previous years.

Mexico’s Pemex Illustrates Trade Credit Risks in Latin America

With all the focus on the Middle East and Europe, it is easy to lose track of Latin America as a region with major risk issues. Companies investing and selling to Latin America have become accustomed to viewing its largest economies—Mexico and Brazil—as relatively low-risk countries with promising growth prospects. That perception has recently changed, however, largely because of a common ingredient: large state-owned oil companies on which the government depends.

With a $1.26 trillion economy and population of 122 million, Mexico is a key market for the United States and Canada, particularly since the advent of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Some $535 billion in trade occurred between the U.S. and Mexico in 2014. From 2000 through 2012, U.S. foreign direct investment into Mexico totaled $291.7 billion.

With a monopoly (until recently) on oil production and fuel distribution, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) is a colossus—the largest company in the country, representing about one-third of all government tax revenues and approximately 5% of Mexican exports. From its origin in 1938, Pemex has also been a political entity, as it was nationalized at a time when foreign companies dominated the oil sector. Since then, it has become enmeshed in Mexican politics and patronage, suffering from frequent allegations of corruption.

However, in the early 2000s, Mexico’s political leadership recognized a problem: oil production was falling and Pemex lacked the resources to invest in new fields to reverse the trend. Clearly, foreign investment was going to be needed to keep Mexico competitive in world oil markets. So, in August 2014, Mexico passed the laws necessary to open up the oil, gas, and power sectors to private companies, including foreign ones.

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Unfortunately, with oil prices taking a serious downturn, the timing of the opening was awful. Pemex was losing its monopoly at the same time its revenue was dropping and home currency was depreciating against the U.

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S. dollar, after it had accumulated enormous foreign currency debt.

Not surprisingly, in November 2015, Moody’s downgraded Pemex’s credit rating from A3 to Baa1, with a negative outlook. Without the sovereign support, the rating was put at a lowly Ba3. And Pemex’s problems have directly drained the central government: this month, the Mexican government announced over $4 billion in aid for the company.

Pemex has serious cash-flow problems and is not able to pay its suppliers on time. In late 2015, citing low oil prices, it announced that it would unilaterally extend payment terms on all contracts to 180 days from the previous 60-90. For suppliers dependent on short payment terms who were already under cash-flow stress from general industry conditions, these payment delays could cause serious financial problems, including bankruptcies. Accordingly, the trade credit insurance industry—which covers buyers’ failure to pay contractual trade obligations on the due date—is already seeing claims related to Pemex and its suppliers.

Except for people who remember the early 1980s, when Mexico defaulted following the high oil prices and debt run-up of the 1970s, Pemex’s problems were unthinkable just a few years ago. This is an example of the difficulty of predicting how commodity markets, politics and financial management can mix for any given country. However, while Pemex’s problems are serious for its suppliers and represent a drag on the economy, Mexico is still forecasted to grow 2.

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6% in 2016 and no wide political crisis is currently underway. Many other countries dependent on oil are not so lucky. Next month we will look at one with much more serious problems and risks to investors and suppliers: Brazil.

Cyber, Regulation Seen as Top Emerging Risks, Report Finds

SAN DIEGO—Forecasting risk is not expected to get easier in the next three years, with cyberattacks and regulation topping the list of emerging risks, according to a new report published jointly by Marsh and RIMS.

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The 13th annual Excellence in Risk Management report found that while risk professionals are increasingly relied upon to identify and assess emerging risks, there are still organizational and other barriers to identifying those risks. In fact, nearly half of survey respondents—48%—predicted that forecasting critical business risks will be more difficult three years from now, while just over one-quarter said it would be the same.

“Whether emerging risks are on your doorstep, around the corner, or on the far horizon, they have the potential to catch organizations unaware,” said Brian Elowe, Marsh’s U.S. client executive leader and co-author of the report. “It’s important for risk professionals to maintain awareness of global risk trends, and to make the connection to their organizations’ business strategy.”

Where do risk professionals turn when trying to understand the impacts of emerging risks on their organization? According to the report:
One of the goals of this year’s Excellence survey’s goal was to better understand how organizations view the emerging risks facing them, what tools they use and the barriers they face in assessing, modeling, and understanding the risks. According to the findings, a majority of respondents—61%—cited cyber-attacks as the likely source of their organization’s next critical risk. This was followed by regulation, cited by 58% of the respondents, and talent availability, cited by 40% of the respondents.

Based on survey responses and insights from numerous focus group discussions, it became clear that risk professionals generally agree on the importance of identifying emerging risks, and also that there is no clearly established framework for doing so. More can be done to better identify, assess, and manage the impact emerging risks may have on organizations.

For example, a majority—60%—of the risk management respondents said they use claims-based reviews as one of the primary means to assess emerging risks, compared to 38% who said they use predictive analytics.

“The widespread use of claims-based reviews means that a majority of organizations are relying on studying past incidents to predict how emerging risks will behave rather than using predictive analytic techniques like stochastic modeling and game theory to help inform their decision making,” Elowe said.

Survey respondents also cited several barriers to understanding the impact of emerging risks on their business strategy.

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Decisions with lack of cross-organization collaboration ranked first among risk professional respondents.

“Lack of collaboration across the organization is still an issue for many risk professionals. On the other hand, breaking down silos has become less of a concern for executives,” said Carol Fox, vice president of strategic initiatives for RIMS and co-author of the report. “Tackling emerging risks often requires creative yet pragmatic approaches. It has to encompass internal cross-functional conversations — formal and informal — around the intersection of risk and strategy, senior-leadership engagement, and tapping into external information sources. Risk professionals are encouraged to broaden the scope and collaboration around emerging risk issues within their organizations.”

According to the report:

As the risk environment becomes increasingly complex and more entwined with financial decisions, risk strategy is increasingly a boardroom issue. As we have seen in past Excellence surveys, senior leaders’ expectations of the risk management department have increased in everything from leading enterprise risk management to providing better risk quantification and analysis.

However, while more is being asked of risk professionals, investment is not necessarily keeping pace. For example, the percentage that say they expect to hire more staff dropped to 25% this year from 37% when we asked in 2015. “We’ve all experienced this elevation of risk management at our institutions, but…as we are battling for budget, it becomes pretty easy for risk management to get pushed over to the side,” said the assistant vice president of risk management at a major university.

The survey is based on more than 700 responses to an online survey and a series of focus groups with risk executives in January and February 2016.

Phishing: Understanding Your Cyber Adversaries

Nearly two years ago, an infamous incident occurred where stolen pictures of celebrities flooded the internet. Originally, it was thought that this was due to an iCloud vulnerability that allowed a brute force attack. But it now turns out it was because of a simple social engineering phishing hack.

Phishing usually involves sending mass emails that masquerade as legitimate communications, coming from a trustworthy source like a big bank or credit card company. The phisher seeks to trick the recipient into clicking on a link or opening an attachment that downloads malware onto the victim’s computer. The malware can then be used for criminal activity including theft of sensitive data or money. While phishers may send thousands of emails, all they need are a few or even one individual to fall for their trick to get into the IT system. It’s easy to forget that security threats aren’t always the work of sophisticated technology geniuses with malevolent intent. As in the case of the celebrity photos, the method was relatively simple. However, it still caused reputational damage.

Cyber attacks don’t appear out of nowhere.

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At the beginning and right through development and attack, humans are involved. Recently, we profiled half a dozen types of attackers. We call them the “Unusual Suspects.” An attack might start with the Professional working in the digital shadows seeking to make the most money possible from the damage they cause. Then you’ve got the Mules and Getaways who are on the front line, and will be the first to get caught when the law comes knocking. There are also Activists and Nation State Actors who are looking to change the world or steal information on behalf of their country’s government. And then there’s the Insider leaking sensitive information accidentally or on purpose with malicious intent.

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These are all just some of personas BAE Systems recently identified as key threats to businesses and without them, cybercrime can’t exist.

Wising up to phishing attacks

In the IT space, one of the most common ways cyber criminals target employees of a company is through phishing. In the aforementioned celebrity photos case, court documents said Ryan Collins, 36, of Pennsylvania, hacked more than 100 people. According to reports in the press he used email names like ‘e-mail.protection318@icloud.com’ and asked for password details.

With these credentials, the hacker was able to go through email accounts looking for photos and videos, managing to get into around 50 iCloud accounts and 72 Gmail accounts mostly belonging to celebrities. It’s quite easy to imagine the damage hackers could cause if they got hold of corporate emails – think of the damage the 2014 Sony hack inflicted.

You can’t patch a human

Employees will always be a weak spot, and clever social engineering is leading to more examples of how this weakness can be exploited. The effects can be devastating. For example: a company that collects credit card data from its customers is at risk of a major data breach from a single employee clicking on an email leading to a website laced with malware. The financial and/or reputational damage and the related fines or compensation claims that result could be significant.

At its core, combating social engineering is a human problem that requires human solutions. In certain cases victims may violate policies, but it may often be the case that the rules or training were not clear enough for the employee to know they were doing something that could have serious consequences. And because humans are behind social engineering attacks, they are capable of evolving, matching the way the business world is using technology.

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To mitigate against social engineering attacks, there needs to be security awareness and culture from top to bottom. This might mean ongoing training for employees to understand the threats, as well as the right policies and procedures in place. This helps employees understand the risk from social engineering and what role they have in preventing it. Remember, this all has to be done in tandem with putting the right technology in place.

Defeating the Unusual Suspects

Defending against cyber threats is all well and good, but what about catching these Unusual Suspects? This is difficult, because they use sophisticated tactics to escape detection–they are located all over the world, and use secure software to escape detection and remain anonymous, often routing communications through multiple countries to avoid being caught.

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Fortunately this is a case where human fallibility is a good thing–criminals will make mistakes and leave digital finger prints that sophisticated analytics and forensic analysis can pick up. Finally don’t underestimate the power of human ingenuity–thanks to the efforts of security professionals, we’re finally getting to a point where the investigation of online crime is being slowly demystified and defenses put in place to mitigate the threat.