Category Archives: Disaster Recovery

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Catastrophic Floods More Frequent in 2019

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Last week, after already experiencing heavy rainfalls and flooding, New Orleans was preparing for tropical storm Barry, expecting the storm to overflow or even breach the city’s levees. Flights in and out of the city were cancelled, as were concerts and other public events, as the city braced for catastrophe. Barry ended up narrowly missing New Orleans, and instead moved inland, drenching other parts of Louisiana and Mississippi and causing floods and mass power outages in those areas. It was yet another example of how major flooding has become a normal occurrence for many regions of the country, and by all indications, it is becoming worse each year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated in its report 2017 State of U.S. High Tide Flooding and 2018 Outlook that “The projected increase in high tide flooding in 2018 may be as much as 60 percent higher across U.S. coastlines as compared to typical flooding about 20 years ago and 100% higher than 30 years ago.” This prediction turned out to be accurate, as the United States saw massive flooding throughout 2018, including “sunny-day” or “high-tide” flooding that occurs during high tides outside of hurricane events.

In its recent report on 2018 high-tide flooding and 2019 outlook, the NOAA said that these floods’ median frequency in 2018 “reached 5 days, which tied the historical record of 2015.” Of the 98 observed locations along the U.S. coastline, 12 reportedly broke or tied their all-time records for high-tide flooding in 2018. And now, the NOAA is predicting that 2019 could be even worse.

The NOAA noted that high-tide flooding “is increasingly common due to years of relative sea level increases. It no longer takes a strong storm or a hurricane to cause flooding in many coastal areas.” The Union of Concerned Scientists has said that sea level rise is accelerating, that “sea levels in the U.S. are rising fastest along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico,” and that the primary reason for this sea level rise is climate change melting land ice and heating oceans.

According to the NOAA’s 2019 projections, it expects high-tide flooding along the U.S. coastlines this year to reach double the numbers from 2000. Additionally, “the Northeast Atlantic could see a 140% increase, the Southeast could see a 190% increase, and the Western Gulf of Mexico could see a 130% increase.”

Almost 40% of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas, and could be at risk from flooding effects. With the start of hurricane season, these dangers will only increase as storms batter the coasts. Even before Barry threatened, New Orleans faced massive flooding last week, while Pittsburgh contended with flash floods. And the week before, heavy rains left Washington, D.C. and surrounding towns swimming in water that overwhelmed the city’s storm water pipes.

These increasing floods mean serious losses for people, municipalities and businesses. The recent DC-area floods reportedly caused $3.5 million in damage to Arlington, Virginia county infrastructure alone. In March, a “bomb cyclone” hit Nebraska, with heavy rainfall causing damages totaling more than $1.3 billion. This figure includes $449 million in road, levee and other infrastructure damage, as well as serious damage to more than 2,000 homes and 340 businesses. Iowa also experienced flooding that caused water treatment plants to shut down, depriving two cities’ residents of fresh water. And across the Midwest, agriculture was also hit hard by flooding, slowing corn and soybean planting. The delay may decrease harvests by at least 8% and increase prices worldwide.

As Risk Management Monitor has previously reported, Texas A&M University at Galveston and the Texas General Land Office examined the 50-year impact of a major storm hitting Galveston Bay on the Texas coast near Houston, finding that major storm events that caused flooding would have huge secondary effects on the economy, both locally and nationally.

Various states, including those along the Mississippi River, have already enacted flood control measures like levees, dams and flood walls, but have seen this year’s increased flooding defeat these measures. Others have encouraged residents to purchase flood insurance to offset losses. But the increasing scope of future floods may mean that these steps are not enough. Though tropical storm Barry missed New Orleans, experts have still expressed concern about coming storms possibly “topping” the city’s levees, which could cause even more damage to the already-flooded city.

Texas Study Shows Business Impact of Major Storms

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A new study conducted by Texas A&M University at Galveston and the Texas General Land Office examines the 50-year impact of a major storm hitting Galveston Bay on the Texas coast near Houston, including secondary effects to the economy. The study focused on catastrophic “500-year” flood events (with a one-in-500 chance of occurring in a year), which, while rare, have hit the state 3 times in recent years. This includes Hurricane Harvey, which struck Louisiana and Texas in August 2017, causing $125 billion in damage, according to the National Hurricane Center.

These larger storms have serious economic impacts locally, regionally and nationally. Over a 50-year time frame, the study notes, “the projected economic impact on Texas’ Gross State Product (GSP) of storm surge without coastal protection is substantial.” In the wake of a 500-year magnitude event, the regional petroleum and chemical manufacturing sectors would see their output decline by 19% (or $175.4 billion) in lost revenue, as well as a projected 17% loss of petroleum jobs (approximately 155,000 jobs) and a petroleum price increase of 13%. It would also impact the region’s housing, with the sector declining by 8%, or $39.5 billion lost in sales.

A 500-year surge event striking Galveston Bay would also have serious impacts for national economic activity, especially because the region processes 25% of the petroleum and more than half of the jet fuel used in the United States. According to the study, U.S. GDP could drop 1.1% (approximately $883 billion), U.S. exports would suffer a 4% drop (approximately $1.66 billion) and “30 states not including Texas will have lower GSP in response to a surge event in Texas.”

“The Galveston Bay region is one of the most flood- and surge-prone areas in the United States with vast amounts of vulnerable residential, commercial, industrial and petro-chemical areas at risk,” said Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush. “This study clearly demonstrates that, without any new protections in place, future storm surges could have substantial and lingering impacts on Texas’ economy and send lasting ripples through other economic sectors nationwide.”

Turning to mitigation, the authors of the report assessed the potential measure of a 17-foot “coastal spine,” also called a “coastal storm suppression system,” made up of “connecting seawalls and fortified dunes/levees along the coastline to retractable gates.” In October, the Army Corps of Engineers released the study Coastal Texas Protection and Restoration Feasibility Study proposing a similar example of this sort of structure—74 miles of barrier, including “floodwalls (inverted T-walls), floodgates (both highway and railroad floodgates), seawall improvements, drainage structures, pump stations, and surge barrier gates.”

The researchers estimate that a coastal spine would reduce the region’s lost petroleum and chemical manufacturing sector losses to 3% and 5%, respectively, a 1% reduction in regional unemployment, and a 1% increase in petroleum product prices. The report also claims that a coastal spine mitigation plan would reduce Houston-Galveston regional insurance premiums by as much as 28%. This could provide significant relief for insurers as well. Even though insurance and reinsurance only covered about 30% of the total wind and flood damage from Hurricane Harvey, this amounted to tens of millions in losses.

In terms of construction cost, the Texas researchers polled residents of three local counties and found that 56% “believed that both government and port industries should be responsible for financing the coastal barrier system,” and a majority agreed that some form of taxation should support its construction.

NCSA and NASDAQ Advise Risk Managers to Look ‘Beyond IT’ Following a Breach

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NEW YORK — “Incident Response and Recovery” was the theme of the National Cyber Security Alliance (NCSA) and Nasdaq Cybersecurity Summit on April 17. Security and risk professionals from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and various companies and organizations convened at the Nasdaq Marketsite to discuss methods that focus on resilience and recovery following a cyber attack or data breach.

NCSA Executive Director Kelvin Coleman led the fireside chat with Matthew Travis, deputy director for the DHS’ Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). The timing of Travis’ appearance was unique, considering that Kirstjen Nielsen–formerly the secretary of Homeland Security and Travis’ director–recently resigned from her post on April 7. While that announcement grabbed widespread attention due to her involvement with the humanitarian and immigration crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border, it also has major impacts for the country’s efforts to counteract cyberrisk and data breaches. Last September, Nielsen announced the formation of the National Risk Management Center (NRMC), an initiative focused on defending critical infrastructure from cyberattacks and providing a single point of access to the full range of government activities to defend against cyber threats.

“There is no doubt [Nielsen] was the most cyber-savvy secretary the department’s ever had. She brought real bonafide domain expertise in cybersecurity to the department,” Travis said. He added that the creation of CISA is her legacy and that the relationship with Kevin McAleenan, the new acting secretary of homeland security, has been harmonious.   

Travis reminded attendees that its partnerships with the private sector were crucial and that CISA regularly monitors national critical functions such as elections, electrical grids and financial transactions, which he said are the “big things that drive our economy.” He also said that companies can leverage CISA resources immediately after a breach as a supplement to the FBI’s criminal investigation.

“We’re going to help you understand exactly what happened and help you recover the data and mitigate some of the impact. The private sector firms do that very well, but the difference is that…

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[CISA] is free,” he said. “That is where we would like to work with owners and operators, when there is an event, to help them get back on their feet as soon as possible.”

Additionally, Coleman and Travis discussed that though CISA is not part of the intelligence community, it does have access to the intelligence collection and monitors trends that can be used to warn private sector companies of cyberrisks. He cited the recent Domain Name System (DNS) infrastructure hijacking campaign that CISA warned about in February—in which at least 40 different organizations across 13 different countries were compromised—as an example of the agency taking steps to alert both the public and private sectors.   

“When we issue technical alerts or emergency directives,” Travis said, “[we] communicate to our stakeholders what to look out for.”

How to Reduce Uncertainty After A Breach  

In the next session, panelists agreed that even when companies use new technologies to remedy security flaws and migrate data to cloud storages, new vulnerabilities occur. Dr. Michael Siegel, principal research scientist and director of cybersecurity at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), said that the old adage of risks being rooted in people continue to be prophetic.

“It’s always been about people and things that sit in our systems for a long time,” he said. “You’ve heard this since the 2000s and it’s still true, and even more true today.”

Should a business find itself in a situation where ransom is being demanded for intangible assets and information, Siegel advised that then is not the time when stakeholders should first decide whether they’d be willing to pay.

“They should know whether they’d pay ransomware because they have [presumably] done tabletop exercises…that will be absolutely essential because any time you wait and indecision will be [catastrophic],” he said. “You have to have practiced it in advance. You can build a scenario-generator and run it through a classroom.”

Companies can also learn from breaches, if tracking is implemented within their code, noted Tyler Shields, vice president of strategy for Sonatype, and open source governance platform. “The ability to track your code from creation to deployment—that entire life cycle—needs to be instrumented so that when a breach occurs you know what component was affected, where it came from, who implemented it and what protections were in place.”

Incident Response Recovery Beyond IT

The final session panelists agreed that holistic approaches were essential for successful responses and recovery periods. Internal and external communications should be well thought-out and designating a person or team to handle them sets the appropriate company precedent. Lisa Plaggemier, chief evangelist at Infosec and NCSA board member said that, for example, while a company’s lawyers are critical during these times, they might not be the best communicators.

“Lawyers, when they write for communications, tend to sound more scary than reassuring,” she said.

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“You want to have collaborations and have that communications person in the room with them.”   

Photo courtesy of the National Cyber Security Alliance

When it comes to crisis communication, Plaggemeir advocated that employees—especially those who detected the incident—should be armed with talking points for traditional and social media outlets to avoid data leakage.

“We want to make sure we equip those people so that the rumor mill doesn’t start flying and we don’t end up with communications that are out of our control,” she said.

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Dovetailing on that notion, moderator Andrew Derboben, senior director of security operations at Nasdaq was quick to mention reputation risk. He said another way to reduce data leakage and misrepresentations in the media—which can further harm a company’s reputation in the aftermath of a breach—is to arm all company employees with a brief script on what to say to anyone, even just passersby making small talk.

“Don’t even have them say ‘no comment,’” Derboben said. “Point them to the experts who have all the data. Because if we’re missing a key piece of information and it’s not communicated properly it could determine how an article will be written.”

Press Release: RIMS Commends Congressional Foresight to Extend Flood Program Prior to Government Shutdown

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National Flood Insurance Program May 31st Extension Avoids Dangerous Lapse in Coverage

NEW YORK – In the waning hours prior to the U.S. Federal Government’s partial shutdown, RIMS, the risk management society™, welcomed congressional action to extend the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Extended through May 31, 2019, the program will become the responsibility of incoming House Financial Services Chairwoman Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) to draft a longer-term reauthorization.

A long-term reauthorized NFIP bill would provide critical financial support to a wide range of businesses experiencing flood emergencies and continues to be a RIMS legislative priority. The NFIP was the focus of the Society’s 2018 Legislative Summit held in October in Washington, DC. Additionally, this November, RIMS signed a joint letter with other insurance, real estate and banking organizations, urging Congress to take immediate action to avoid a lapse in the program.

“Business leaders, especially those located in areas of the country most susceptible to flood disasters, can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that an NFIP lapse has been avoided,” said RIMS CEO Mary Roth. “While RIMS is happy that the NFIP received an extension, the Society will continue to work diligently with elected officials, offering our support to help create a more permanent, long-term solution.”

RIMS’ Political Action Committee (RISK PAC) has been soliciting donations to allow the Society to continue to engage and support Members of Congress who have demonstrated their commitment to the reauthorization of the NFIP. For more information about RISK PAC or to donate, visit www.riskpac.org.