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7 Potential Disasters Worse than the BP Spill

If forecasters were attempting to gauge the worst disasters that could happen, a major oil spill gushing for some 90-plus days into the Gulf of Mexico would probably have rated fairly high. By some estimates, this whole mess will cost BP around $60 billion. (Other, more conservative estimates have it costing closer to 1/10th that number.)

But while this might seem like the one of the worst things that possibly could happen on American soil, it isn’t. Forbes, in its latest issue, has a list of seven other incidents that could be even more catastrophic. Here’s a recap of their list.

nuclear plant

1. Nuclear Meltdown

Depending on the severity and location, a disaster at a major plant could wreak unfathomable carnage. Writes Forbes:

The industry has $19 billion set aside to pay for accidents. But what would a Chernobyl-type release of radioactive gases into the air do to death rates and the habitability of some large area? The Institute for Policy Studies says a spent-fuel fire could cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

While nuclear energy very may well be a good option in a country (rhetorically) trying to slow climate change and wean itself off of foreign oil, the possibility of a meltdown can be sobering — even when you realize that it has thus far been very effective and safe in some parts of the world for the past several decades.

gasland

2. Liquefied Natural Gas Explosion

With supertankers out there carrying some 100,000 tons of liquid methane, the explosive potential of a single ship is equivalent to the blast that would occur if two billion sticks of dynamite went off. The last major tanker explosion killed 128 people in Cleveland in 1944. The next one? Well, it would likely be much, much worse.

And anyone who has seen the controversial — and terrifying — documentary Gasland knows that there may be other, more subtle risks involved in natural gas extraction that deserve the attention of regulators and the industry.

Bhopal Union Carbide

3. Chemical Plant Explosion

The Bhopal disaster was the worst industrial accident in history. Recently — and very controversially — seven involved officials were sentenced to two years in prison and fined $2,000 for negligence more than 25 years after the 1984 Union Carbide leak of poisonous gases (mostly methyl isocyanate) that killed some 15,000 people directly (and up to 23,000 by some estimates) while also leaving another 500,000 with injuries and ailments related to exposure. Human rights groups, victims and Bhopal locals were outraged at the leniency given, particularly since proper clean-up efforts were never conducted and that the $470 million settlement paid by Union Carbide in 1989 now looks laughable by any standard.

If something like that were to occur today, it’s almost impossible to predict how much such a politically charged incident with so many casualties would end up costing. But Forbes lists a hypothetical plant explosion in Houston that kills 600 people as totaling $20 billion, according to Risk Management Solutions.

hoover dam

4. Dam Failure

I have never done any research into a major dam failure, but it sure doesn’t sound good at all.

One of the worst scenarios would be a cascading series of failures in the Columbia River Basin of the Pacific Northwest, where the dams start in Canada, pass the Department of Energy’s Hanford Reservation, with its 50 million gallons of plutonium-laced waste, and include the 6.8-gigawatt Grand Coulee Dam, the largest hydroelectric plant in the U.S. The odds of such a catastrophe are extremely low, but the costs would quickly exceed the $85 billion tab for cleaning up Hanford.

Hopefully, someone is looking into lowering the threat for all “one-third of the 80,000” U.S. dams that FEMA claims pose at least a “high” risk.

long island express 1938

5. Category 5 Hurricane Hits New York

A few years ago, I wrote an in-depth feature article for Risk Management about the hurricane potential for New York. Honestly, I’m not really sure a cat 5 hitting NYC is even close to likely over, say, the next 100 years or so, even if ocean sea-surface temperatures continue to rise to alarming extents. But a category 3 storm hitting the area is not only likely — it’s inevitable.

In 1938, the “Long Island Express” raced up the Atlantic coast at a breakneck pace, inundating Long Island, Connecticut and, particularly, Providence, Rhode Island, with floodwaters and storm surge that, while devastating even back then when the areas were sparsely developed, would lead to well over a $100 billion in losses today. The loss of life in this densely populated, frightening unprepared region could be even worse.

Here’s an excerpt from the piece I wrote about “The Northeast Unthinkable”:

Given its geography, population density and general affluence, New York’s Long Island in particular faces a tremendous risk. When the Long Island Express hit in 1938, it was eastern Suffolk County that endured the greatest winds, storm surge and flooding, resulting in approximately 50 deaths. According to 1940 census data, the population at the time was just under 200,000. Today, nearly 1.5 million people live in Suffolk. And another 1.34 million reside in the neighboring Nassau County compared to the roughly 400,000 there in 1938.

“What really drives significant catastrophe losses is a major event hitting a major metropolitan area,” says Clark. “Otherwise, you can have a lot of activity, but you’re not going to have a lot of losses. It’s those chance occurrences where you have major events hit Galveston, Houston, New Orleans, Tampa, Miami, the Mid-Atlantic or the Northeast—those are the real areas where you’re going to get the mega-catastrophes.”

According to a study by AIR, there is some $4.4 trillion worth of commercial exposure and $3.4 trillion in residential property from New Jersey to Maine. And with almost a million households in Long Island alone, this 1,200-square-mile strip of land accounts for over $1 trillion in combined commercial and residential exposure.

It is with this boom in population and wealth in mind that Roger Pielke, Jr., director of the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at Colorado State University, set out to formulate new projections for the scale of destruction a replay of the Great New England Hurricane would cause now.

In today’s dollars, the 1938 storm caused over $4 billion in insured losses alone. But this adjusted figure only accounts for the elevated currency values and ignores 68 years of regional growth in population, infrastructure, industry and commercial enterprise. “You can’t adjust for the damages that never occurred,” says Pielke.

As someone who lives in New York, this — even more so than terrorism — is the possible disaster that disturbs me the most, in part, because I believe there is actually some sort of official developed to react to the next terrorist attack. I doubt there is any comprehensive, inter-county plan at all that will be effective in the days leading up to an following the category 3 hurricane that will someday hit.

sydney opera house

6. Ferry Capsizing

This one honestly sounds less plausible as a “worse than BP disaster” for the United States than it does elsewhere, but here’s what Forbes wrote:

Ferryboats and riverboats are extremely stable because of their wide, flat design, but they also often travel in dangerous waterways with lots of passengers. As many as 4,300 passengers and crew died after the Philippine ferry MV Dona Paz collided with a tanker, caught fire and sank in 1987.

I suppose that could happen anywhere, but it seems less likely than the others listed in the developed world — especially when compared to this last, but certainly not least, one…

volcano

7. Supervolcano

Forbes quotes a Lloyd’s report that volcanoes pose an $85 billion risk “including disruption and air travel” and includes Mount Vesuvius in Italy and Mount Rainier outside of Seattle as two of the scariest locations for a major eruption.

$85 billion sure is a lot of money, but anyone who has seen the History Channel’s “Mega Disasters” episode on what will happen when the Yellowstone Caldera blows probably has worse fears on their minds. Were this thing to erupt, the only adjusters and insurers left to tally the total will likely be roaches and reptiles.

You’ve been warned.

The Seven Strangest Man-Made Disasters

Yesterday, Emily did a post recounting Aon’s list of the top five global hotspots for earthquakes. Given the seemingly relentless seismic activity and destruction wrought by shifting tectonic plates just in 2010 alone, such natural disasters should be high on everyone’s watch list.

But as we are seeing right now in the Gulf, man-made disasters can present enormous perils of their own. And it just so happens that I came across Spike’s list of “The Top Seven Most Bizarre Man-Made Disasters” today.

You can head over there for a full rundown of all the incidents (including Bhopal, the Texas City devastation and the new-to-me Boston “Molassacre”), but these are the three I find most interesting.

3. The Gates of Hell

This pit of fire that has been burning for 40 years looks more like something out or Mordor than Turkmenistan. But the burning crater of natural gas began shortly after a Russian drilling rig collapsed into the Underworld and no one knew what to do.

Having opened this huge poisonous gas cavern up, the atmosphere and the nearby residents in the village of Derweze decided the next logical move would be to set this huge crater on fire, and it has been burning ever since.

Sure, light it on fire. Why not? What could go wrong? Seems logical enough.

Here’s video of some tourists enjoying the incredible, football-field-wide hole to hell (not literally).

Yikes.

2. The Centralia Underground Coal Fire

Our former publisher and Pennsylvanian Bill Coffin used to talk about this one all the time, so I have been familiar with its existence for some time. Nevertheless, it’s completely nuts. Like the Gates of Hell, it has been burning for decades — since 1962 in fact. But unlike the Turkmenistan fire, its genesis is not so clear.

It is suspected to be a blunder by the local fire department in 1962 which had been tasked with cleaning up the local landfill, which itself sat on top of an abandoned strip mine. To accomplish this, they set the landfill on fire, apparently not an unheard of method at the time. However, the theory goes that the fire was not put out properly, and heated up veins of coal underneath the landfill, which began to smolder over time.

Eventually the reaction lit an underground fire which continued to burn, which caused little concern from local authorities until almost two decades later when in 1981, a 12-year-old boy fell into a 150-foot sinkhole which suddenly opened up in the backyard underneath his feet.

“Blunder” seems to be putting it lightly. A “blunder” is forgetting to send out an email before you leave work for the night. A “blunder” is perhaps running into a parked car while trying to do a u-turn. Or a “blunder” may even be leaving the iron on when you run out the door on the way to brunch. Accidentally igniting a 1,200-degree coal fire that has burned for a half century — and is expected to continue burning until around 2260 — is more than a “blunder.”

I think we can all agree that it should at least be considered a “my bad.”

Centralia Pennsylvania Sign

An actual sign in Centralia, PA.

1. The Great Pacific Garbage Patch

This is one of the neatest, worst things I have ever found out about. Discovered by chance by Captain Charles Moore some 12 years ago, the Great Pacific Garbage Patch is an unfathomably immense, floating, amorphous collection of trash in the middle of the planet’s largest ocean. It is located between Hawaii and California due to the fact that that is where multiple sea currents meet — and there the (mostly) plastic mass churns in the water at twice the size of Texas.

Pretty cool, huh? But sorry, folks, it’s not all beautiful pollution.

There is also a downside.

Over the decades the garbage patch has been developing, much of the debris has been broken down into smaller and smaller particles, comprised largely of various kinds of plastics, which is then mistaken for food by the marine life, which in turn contaminates the ecosystem all way up the food chain.

Since the area is so massive in scale (both in terms of width and depth underwater), many scientists believe it is nearly impossible to cleanup the contamination at sea, and that it would likely do even more damage to the surrounding sea life in the process. When people talk about our need to recycle plastics, this is why.

All cavalierness aside, this is obviously a terrible problem and represents one of the unforeseen — and, until relatively recently, unknown — risks of our modern society. What can be done? Who knows. Perhaps nothing. But it’s just another lesson for all of us about what types of unexpected disasters can compile — little by little, day by day — when you’re no one is paying attention.

Below, Cpt. Moore speaks about the problem with Stephen Colbert.

Stephen speaks much truthiness.

Arkansas Flash Flood Kills at Least 19

Last Friday, America received yet another tragic lesson that Mother Nature’s wrath is unpredictable and unstoppable. At least 19 were killed by a flash flood at an Arkansas campground that hit while most of the campers were asleep with no way to escape the rush of water, mud and debris.

CNN is reporting a first-hand account from one of the flood survivors.

Survivor Terri Rhoeder, who lost her mother, brother and sister-in-law in the tragedy, described for CNN’s “American Morning” how quickly the water rose. She had been sleeping outside on an air mattress when she awoke and realized she was floating on the water.

“When I stood up from my bed, it was at my knees,” Rhoeder said. “By the time I could contemplate what was going on, its at my waist. And I was being swept out with it at my shoulders. As campers, we are used to nature. Not this extreme.”

The water rose from the normal level of four feet to 23 feet within a short period, Beebe said

Fortunately, her niece did survive — by grabbing a tree branch and hanging on for three hours waiting for a rescue team, which continued its efforts to locate as many people as possible in the immediate aftermath, eventually growing to some 100 rescuers as it continued to search throughout the Ouachita National Forest in western Arkansas.

Even with the tragedy so recent, it is — as always — important for those responsible for disaster response to evaluate what could have been done better. In this case, officials will look at the flash flood warning system.

The warning system intended to notify campers on federal land about potentially devastating weather will be re-examined in Arkansas and throughout the nation, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Saturday.

You can hear about the disaster in the video below.

BP Oil Spill Claims Reach $1.6 Billion

This morning, BP announced that the Gulf of Mexico oil spill has cost the company $1.6 billion. The London-based company said that included in the $1.6 billion figure were payments of $62 million that have been paid out to 51,000 claims. The figure also includes “the cost of the spill response, containment, relief well drilling, grants to Gulf states” and federal costs.

With several years (or decades, even) of cleanup ahead, the $1.6 billion is seen as a merely an initial cost figure. Credit Suisse actually estimated the total bill at $37 billion.

President Obama, who has been criticized for what has been perceived as a lack of urgency towards the situation, has announced that the government wants BP to set up an independently managed escrow account to compensate those with damage claims.

A majority of the Senate called on BP to set up a $20-billion account, administered by an independent trustee, to pay for cleanup and economic damages from the massive gulf oil spill, “ensuring that there will be no delay in payments or attempt to evade responsibility for damages.”

The letter was signed by 54 senators, almost the entire Democratic caucus. “The damages caused by your company are far reaching,” the lawmakers wrote to BP’s Tony Hayward.

Obama is scheduled to address the nation Tuesday evening in regards to ongoing oil leak.

Though the current situation in the Gulf of Mexico may seem like the worst oil spill in history, it has, so far, been a far cry from the Ixtoc oil spill. The Ixtoc 1, like the Deepwater Horizon, was an exploratory rig that suffered a blowout in the Bay of Campeche (Gulf of Mexico) in 1979. Fast Company created an interesting infographic that compares the world’s worst oil spills. Here is a section from the rather large graphic:

bp oil spill

When you look at the Deepwater Horizon oil spill this way, it doesn’t look as bad as you thought, right? Well take a look at the environmental impact of this current spill, compared to the impact of previous, and some larger, spills:

Picture 6

Experts say that this event could become the largest oil spill in the world in terms of amount of oil leaked, money required for cleanup and claims and damage to the environment. If BP doesn’t find a solution soon, there is little doubt the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might make the number one spot — an unfortunate accolade.