Category Archives: Disaster Recovery

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Train Disaster Calls for Safety Action

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Photo: eddtoro/Shutterstock.com

At 7:20 a.m., Dec. 1, four people died and more than 68 were injured, 11 critically, when a speeding passenger train headed for Grand Central Terminal derailed on a steep curve.

Brake failure was cited as a possible reason for the crash, but inspections determined that the brakes were in good condition. The train’s operator, who recently had been switched to an early shift, later said he may have dozed off, failing to apply the brakes in time to avoid the crash.

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The derailment is of special interest to me. The Hudson line is the one I take to work every day and is the same line that suspended service in July when 10 CSX garbage cars derailed near the same location, just north of the Spuyten Duyvil train station.

This week the Federal Railroad Administration cited the MTA’s safety record as “unacceptable.” The agency noted a series of other recent major accidents on the commuter railway: a two-train derailment May 17 in Bridgeport, Conn., where more than 70 people were injured, the death of a track worker in West Haven, Conn., who was struck by a commuter train, and the CSX train derailment, according to DNAinfo New York.

The Associated Press said that injuries from train accidents on Metro-North are higher this year than any of the past 10 years, with 123 people injured in train accidents through August. A 2012 report by the Government Accountability Office found human error to be the cause of almost one-third of train accidents from 2000 to 2009.

The question being asked is why a safety measure—an automated system that would stop a train that is out of control—was not in place, even though “positive train control” has been called for by the national safety board. In response to several fatal accidents and to combat human error, The Rail Safety Improvement Act of 2008 mandates that positive train control for passenger and freight trains be operational by Jan. 1, 2015. Because of the costs to install the technology, estimated between $6 billion and $22 billion, however, Congress is considering an extension of the deadline until late 2018.

The GAO report described positive train control as a system designed to prevent accidents caused by human factors, including train-to-train collisions and derailments that result from trains exceeding safe speeds. It is also designed to prevent incursions into work zones and movement of trains through switches left in the wrong position.

While its safety record leaves much to be desired, the MTA was fast to resurrect its contingency plans. On Monday, thousands of commuters were transported by bus from the Yonkers train station to a Manhattan-bound subway. I made the trip, which was seamless but understandably slow-going. It took me two-and-a-half hours to get to work.

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A standout were the first responders. They were fast to arrive on the scene, rescuing people from damaged cars and getting them to area hospitals. Responders and spokespeople were articulate, and did not speculate as to the cause of the crash. They were impressive.

As of yesterday service on the Hudson Line is fully restored.

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This is an amazing feat considering that the train cars had to be removed by cranes from a tight section of track flanked by the Hudson River and a steep rock embankment, all during an intense investigation. Sections of damaged track also had to be rebuilt.

Yesterday’s train ride was thankfully uneventful and today’s even more so, but there was a sad reminder of the disaster on both days, when the train came to a crawl as it approached the deadly curve at Spuyten Duyvil. Another reminder was several pieces of heavy equipment used for cleanup, still sitting near the tracks.

Weather Risks Often Overlooked

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Unpredictable weather is a risk that can’t be put off or ignored. In fact, insurer payouts for weather-related catastrophes rose from $15 billion a year between 1980 and 1989 to a staggering $70 billion annually between 2010 and 2013, a study found.

While major weather events are a focus of businesses, small events can still have a big impact, according to The Weather Business: How Companies Can Protect Against Increasing Weather Volatility by Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty.

Even though weather volatility is shown to be rising globally, organizations are still failing to protect their revenue from the risks of changes in temperature, snowfall, wind levels, rainfall and too much sun, the report found. Changes in weather can also impact a number of industries including construction, energy, retail, tourism, food, distribution and transport.

Bad weather, however, is no longer an excuse for company stakeholders. Analysts, lending and rating agencies are increasingly looking at whether weather risks are included in a company’s risk management program, the study found.

Weather risk management can help companies hedge the risk posed by fluctuations in weather, similar to how companies already combat the threats of interest rate and foreign currency exchange movements, the report said.

Midwest Tornado Insured Losses Could Top $1B

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A series of tornadoes in the Midwest on Sunday that killed six, levelled homes and businesses and left tens of thousands without power may top $1 billion in insured losses, according to risk modeller RMS.

The New York Times reported that on Nov. 18, Illinois Governor Pat Quinn declared seven counties disaster areas and said he would seek relief funding from state and federal agencies. He also said the series of tornadoes were the deadliest to occur in the state in November.

Matthew Nielsen, director of model product management at RMS said in an email that while damage estimates are far from final, “There is a good chance that Sunday’s outbreak will likely rank as one of the top five most significant November outbreaks since 1950.”

The magnitude and severity of the tornado outbreak was driven by two factors, he said, “Unseasonably strong thermodynamic instability and unusually strong wind shear throughout the depth of the atmosphere.”

Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., president of the Insurance Information Institute said from the Chicago airport, en route to assess the tornado damage first hand, that there is “No question that it will at least be the second costliest tornado event of the year.” The largest event this year was the Moore, Okla., tornadoes, which approached $1.6 billion in insured losses. By comparison, damage from the Midwest tornadoes is spread over a wider area, impacting Illinois, Michigan and Indiana.

“There are thousands of damaged structures throughout the states that were hit—residential and commercial,” he said. “What’s difficult to tell at this point is the extent of commercial damage and that can really drive up the losses. Not only are commercial structures more expensive, but there is often a business interruption component as well.”

He explained that insured losses for tornadoes are typically higher than those for floods. Because there was no flooding involved, more of the losses would be covered by insurance, meaning a faster recovery. “The vast majority of property owners here are going to have insurance coverage. Uninsured losses may include some business interruption loss, vehicles that didn’t carry comprehensive coverage and uninsured structures,” he said.

As is generally the case after tornadoes, “Most people will be getting checks [from their insurers] very quickly, which will help them with temporary living expenses. It will also help them make initial repairs more quickly and provide funds for debris removal so that rebuilding can start,” Hartwig said.

Low Insurance Impact Expected from Haiyan

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Damage in the Philippines from Typhoon Haiyan is widespread, with new information emerging daily. Insured losses, however, are expected to be low, with the greatest impact on smaller reinsurers, according to insurance industry reports.

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A.M. Best said in a briefing that it expects insured losses to be minimal, as non-life insurance is less than 1% of the country’s gross domestic product.

“Insured losses in the Philippines will be spread across many segments, including per­sonal lines, fire and property, and marine hull. Fire/property and marine hull will be well reinsured through the major global reinsurers and through Lloyd’s, which will also absorb some marine losses on a primary basis. Net losses to primary insurers will be limited, and some commercial losses also may be covered through captives or other forms of self-insurance,” the report said.

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A.M. Best expects Haiyan to be an “earnings event for reinsurers” – more substantial for smaller, regional reinsurers. While it is expected to have minor impact on larger global companies, it is “yet another loss on top of recent catastrophes in Europe.”

In an update, Dr. Robert Hartwig of the Insurance Information Institute said that economic damages will be significant, with Haiyan having a “major negative impact on the Philippine economy.”

He noted two reasons why insured losses from Haiyan are likely to be low:

• The storm did not have a direct impact on Manila, the capital and largest city in the Philippines, well to the north of the track of Typhoon Haiyan.

• The Philippines is a small market for property/casualty insurance, with premiums of just $1.23 billion written in 2012. This amounts to $12.70 per person, compared to $1,223.90 per person in the U.S. “Even compared with the rest of Asia, the penetration of insurance in the Philippines is relatively low,” Hartwig said in the report, adding that per capita premiums in Asia were $91.90 in 2012.

In 2012 the Philippine’s GDP per capital was ranked 124th out of 184 countries by the International Monetary Fund, he said. The Philippine economy has grown steadily, however—at an annual rate of 7.

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5% as of the second-quarter of 2013—and should become better insured in the future.

Philippines Life and Nonlife Insurance Premiums, 2012

 

Direct premiums written
Nonlife premiums *

$1,231
Life premiums

$2,265
Total premiums

$3,496
Percent of total world premiums

0.08%

* Includes accident and health insurance.

Source: Swiss Re, sigma, No. 3/2013.