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Cyber Blackout Could Cost Insurers $71 Billion, Lloyd’s Reports

A cyberattack targeting the U.S. power grid would have widespread economic implications, resulting in insurance claims of between $21.4 billion and $71.1 billion in a worst case scenario, according to a report by Lloyd’s.

Lloyd’s and the University of Cambridge’s Centre for Risk Studies recently released “Business Blackout,” which examines the insurance implications of a major cyberattack using the U.S. power grid as an example. In the scenario outlined, malware is used to infect control rooms for generating electricity in areas of the Northeastern U.S. The malware goes undetected and locates 50 generators that it can control, forcing them to overload and burn out. The scenario, described as “improbable but technologically possible,” leaves 15 states in darkness, meaning that 93 million people are without power.

Economic impacts include direct damage to assets and infrastructure, decline in sales revenue to electricity supply companies, loss of sales revenue for businesses and disruption to the supply chain. The total impact to the U.S. economy is estimated at $243 billion, rising to more than $1 trillion in the most extreme version of the scenario.

Claimant types fell into six categories:

Power generation companies

• Property damage to their generators.

• Business interruption from being unable to sell electricity as a result of property damage.

• Incident response costs and fines from regulators for failing to provide power.

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Defendant companies

• Companies sued by power generation businesses to recover a proportion of losses incurred under defendants’ liability insurance.

Companies that lose power – companies that suffer losses as a result of the blackout.

• Property losses (principally to perishable cold store contents).

• Business interruption from power loss (with suppliers extension).

• Failure to protect workforces or causing pollution as a result of the loss of power.

Companies indirectly affected – a separate category of companies that are outside the power outage but are impacted by supply chain disruption emanating from the blackout region.

• Contingent business interruption and critical vendor coverage.

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• Share price devaluation as a result of having inadequate contingency plans may generate claims under their directors’ and officers’ liability insurance.

Homeowners

• Property damage, principally resulting from fridge and freezer contents defrosting, covered by contents insurance.

Specialty

• Claims possible under various specialty covers, most importantly event cancellation.

 Other key findings of the report include:

• Responding to these challenges will require innovation by insurers. The pace of innovation will likely be linked to the rate at which some of the uncertainties revealed in this report can be reduced.

• Cyberattack represents a peril that could trigger losses across multiple sectors of the economy.

• A key requirement for an insurance response to cyber risks will be to enhance the quality of data available and to continue the development of probabilistic modelling.

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• The sharing of cyberattack data is a complex issue, but it could be an important element for enabling the insurance solutions required for this key emerging risk.

FM Global Teaches Explosive Safety Lessons

FM Global Fire Hazard Lab

This week, I ventured up to West Glocester, Rhode Island, home of the coolest place any insurance broker, insurance client, or risk management journalist can visit: the FM Global Research Campus.

Hurricane Force Wind Simulation

Because FM Global is intently focused on prevention of loss as the chief means of minimizing claims, the company maintains a 1,600-acre campus dedicated to property loss prevention scientific research. The biggest center of its kind, the research center features some of the most advanced technology to conduct research on fire, natural hazards, electrical hazards, and hydraulics. Here, experts can recreate clients’ warehouse conditions to test whether existing suppression practices would be sufficient in the event of a massive fire, for example.
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Fabricated hail or seven-foot 2x4s are shot from a cannon-like instrument at plywood, windows, or roofing to test whether these materials can withstand debris that goes flying in hurricane-strength winds. Hydraulic, mechanical and environmental tests are conducted on components of fire protection systems, like sprinklers, to ensure effectiveness overall and under the specific conditions clients face. Further, in cases where there were not sufficient loss prevention solutions, the company’s scientists and engineers have even designed and patented new, more effective sprinklers and other loss prevention technology, the rights to which are released so anyone can manufacture these improved safety measures.

Fire is the leading cause of loss in every calendar year, and watching a pile of plastic pallets ignite into a 60-foot fire while you feel the radiant heat through the glass of the lab’s observation deck is a powerful reality check for anyone evaluating risk exposure in their facility. As you watch the pallets melt, forming a plastic pool that also catches fire and spreads, you see the fire double in size every 45 seconds. If your strategy is primarily to rely on the local fire station, the researchers note, a minimal response time, assuming decent proximity, no traffic or inclement weather, and full staffing, would probably be at least five to 10 minutes. It only took seven minutes for their sample fire to reach almost three stories high, flickering around the edges of the massive ceiling-mounted calorimeter (which measures heat and the particles and smoke released).

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One of the most striking demonstrations comes in the form of a dust explosion. Whether released through product manufacturing, a byproduct of processing, or simply lazy housekeeping, a wide variety of dusts can fill the air in many facilities. Flour, sugar, metal dust, wood and resin are all highly flammable and exceptionally common.

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To cause an explosion, you simply need a few conditions: fuel (the dust), oxygen, ignition, suspension (in other words, the dust has not settled, increasing the surface area), and a confined space (ie. inside the facility, the dust stays in the environment). What happens then? Check out the video below for a slow-motion look at the explosion that results from just a hard hat full of phenolic resin.

Could Train Control Technology Have Prevented the Amtrak Derailment?

An Amtrak train that derailed on May 12, traveling more than 100 miles per hour on a known dangerous curve, has an unfortunate similarity to the Spuyten Dyvil crash in December 2013. In that incident, a Metro North train traveling at 82 miles per hour derailed on a treacherous curve, traveling at nearly three times the allowed speed.

Four passengers died in the Spuyten Dyvil derailment.

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Operator fatigue was deemed to be the cause for that accident. This most recent crash killed at least eight people and eight are listed in critical condition. In both cases, National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) experts contend that a safety measure called “positive train control” (PTC) could have prevented the disasters.

Robert Sumwalt, a member of the NTSB, explained during a press conference on Wednesday that Amtrak already has a system in place called the Advanced Civil Speed Enforcement System (ACES), which is installed throughout most of the Northeast Corridor. “However, it is not installed where the accident occurred,” Sumwalt said. “That type of a system, we call it a positive train control system, is designed to enforce the civil speed, to keep the train below its maximum speed. We have called for positive train control for many years, it’s on our most wanted list. Congress has mandated that it be installed by the end of this year.”

Sumwalt continued, “Based on what we know right now, we feel that, had such a system been installed in this section of track, this accident would not have occurred.”

He said that a thorough walk-through of the accident site was conducted yesterday and that investigators will be looking into the track, the train control signal system and the operations of the train. “Our mission is to not only find out what happened, but why it happened to prevent it from happening again,” he said.

The looming question is why this safety measure was not in place, even though PTC has been called for since a collision in Chatsworth, California killed 25 people. The Rail Safety Improvement Act of 2008 mandates that PTC for passenger and freight trains be operational by the end of 2015.

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But because of high costs and the complexity of the system, Congress has been considering an extension until 2020.

According to the NTSB website:

In the aftermath of the Chatsworth tragedy, Congress enacted the Rail Safety Improvement Act of 2008. The Act requires each Class 1 rail carrier and each provider of regularly-scheduled intercity or commuter rail passenger service to implement a PTC system by Dec.

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31, 2015. Progress is being made toward this lifesaving goal. Metrolink became the first commuter rail system to implement PTC, when it began a revenue service demonstration on the BNSF Railway. This demonstration project is a step in the right direction, and Metrolink reports it will implement PTC fully throughout its entire system before the Congressionally-mandated deadline.

It has been more than 45 years since the NTSB first recommended the forerunner to PTC. In the meantime, more PTC-preventable collisions and derailments occur, more lives are lost, and more people sustain injuries that change their lives forever.
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Yet there is still doubt when PTC systems will be implemented nationwide as required by law.

Each death, each injury, and each accident that PTC could have prevented, testifies to the vital importance of implementing PTC now.

Risk Management and Business Continuity: Improving Business Resiliency

Preparing for and responding to negative events, from the mundane to the catastrophic, from the predictable to the unforeseen, has become a fact of life for businesses and governments around the world. We don’t have to look any further than the seemingly daily reports of cyberattacks on governments, corporations and individuals to comprehend the severity of the problem.

Tackling these risks requires an integrated and holistic framework with the capability to identify, evaluate and adequately define responses to the circumstances. For more and more organizations, this means adapting an enterprise risk management (ERM) model. ERM seeks to identify all threats—including financial, strategic, personnel, market, technology, legal, compliance, geopolitical and environmental—that would adversely affect an organization. This holistic approach gives organizations a better framework for mitigating risk while advancing their goals and opportunities in the face of business threats. But in order to implement and continuously manage this enterprise-wide model there is a critical need for closer integration of two typically distinct roles within the organization—business continuity management (BCM) and risk management. Together, these two vital elements make up a robust ERM plan and have a tremendous impact on an organization’s ability to contend with interruptions to the execution of organizational activities.

Put in the simplest terms, risk management is concerned with minimizing the probability of and destruction caused by negative events. Operational risk management, as the name implies, must cope with interruptions at the operational level. Recognizing that there are inherent imperfections in systems, people, facilities and general operational functions, the essence of operational risk management is to negate or reduce the probability of an incident occurring. Focusing upon incident-specific, site-specific analysis of potential causes of interruptions, risk managers seek to preclude incidents from occurring. If elimination of the risk is not possible, the focus moves to minimizing the results of the negative event.

For example, suppression systems reduce the risk of operational disruption caused by fire damage. Redundant equipment decreases the possibility of operational interruption resulting from machine breakdown and redundant communications help maintain connectivity. By analyzing past events and examining known hazards (defined flood plains, hurricane-prone areas, construction sites, earthquake areas and terrorism-prone areas) operational risk management seeks to avoid the occurrence of negative destructive events.

But creating strategies to minimize the probability that an event will impact an organization certainly will not prevent the incident from taking place. No degree of preparation can stop a tornado, tsunami or other massively destructive event.

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So understanding that every incident is not preventable, our other line of defense is to minimize the impact. That’s where BCM comes in. BCM is concerned with minimizing the impact upon the entity after an event occurs and restoring the organization to its normal operations and delivery of products and services as quickly and safely as possible. In short, BCM helps maintain the viability of an entity under duress.

Because it is event-neutral, BCM is able to categorize effects into four distinct categories:

  • Effects on facilities, making them inaccessible or unusable
  • Effects on operational capability, such as supply chain interruptions, processing errors or staff unavailability
  • Effects on technology
  • Effects on the organization itself, ranging from financial problems to intellectual property rights.

When an event inevitably does occur, the optimal goal is to make any business interruptions imperceptible to those outside the affected organization. Here’s an example of how risk management and business continuity management, working together, enabled an organization to achieve that goal:

One of the world’s most important foreign exchange dealers realized that, as an occupant of a high rise building, it could not control the consequences of all incidents that might impact its ability to service its customers, which were some of the largest financial institutions in the world. A review by the company’s risk manager determined that there was a likelihood of an interruption in service as a result of construction work in the surrounding area. To reduce the risk, it was recommended that they install redundant lines and route them through alternative conduits into the building. So they undertook building redundancy in their telecom network. In addition, the risk of server failure was similarly high and so mirroring was implemented to duplicate all transactions and ensure that no data would be lost in the event of a failure of the building’s infrastructure.

Despite all the precautions to reduce risk, what risk management couldn’t control was an East Coast blackout that terminated power to its operation.

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Recognizing the impact that a loss of power could have, including the loss of use of the facility, the business continuity professional determined that a robust contingency plan was required.

The business continuity plan included a strategy that automatically forwarded incoming calls to another facility outside the U.S. and also provided connectivity to its back-up technology center. When the blackout hit, the business continuity plan worked exactly as tested. Phones were switched, systems were accessible and, best of all, customers never knew the difference. The company was actually more prepared than many of its customers who failed to provide similar capabilities and had to cease trading.

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The combination of risk management and business continuity provides the level of resiliency that most organizations must achieve in light of the uncertainty that exists today. The blend will reduce uncertainty and promote a more stable operating environment.