Category Archives: Disaster Preparedness

Aon Unveils Five Earthquake Hotspots

Posted on by

Aon has listed five earthquake hotspots around the world, following the launch of its report, “When the Earth Moves: Mega-Earthquakes to Come?” Aon lists the five hotspots as:

Caribbean (Lesser Antilles) – The 2cm a year rate of plate convergence is enough to produce a mega-earthquake of Mw 9.0 once every 3000 years. A major loss in the Caribbean would quickly use up available reinsurance capacity.

buy stromectol online abucm.org/assets/jpg/stromectol.html no prescription pharmacy

Chile – As the only segment of the Chile-Peru Subduction Zone not to have ruptured within the last 100 years, the north Chile segment is now considered to be a region at high risk from an earthquake similar in size to the 2010 event. Following this year’s earthquake in Maule, reinsurance programs are now renewing with increases of 75% or more.

Indonesia (Sumatra) – Padang is now regarded as being at high risk from a mega-earthquake comparable to that which occurred in 1797, with a magnitude of 8.5 or more. A mega-earthquake would undoubtedly increase the price of reinsurance following a sizeable insured loss.

buy rotacaps online abucm.org/assets/jpg/rotacaps.html no prescription pharmacy

Japan – The South Japan Subduction Zone (Nankai Trough) has a complex pattern of three segments. The largest earthquakes rupturing along the whole subduction zone may have magnitudes up to 8.6. A mega-earthquake in this region would most likely be a market-moving event.

North America (Cascadia) – The last mega-earthquake on this subduction zone occurred 300 years ago. While the short to medium term probability of a mega-earthquake may be low, insurers should not disregard the associated risks to the cities along the coast.

buy zetia online abucm.org/assets/jpg/zetia.html no prescription pharmacy

After the devastation in Chile and Haiti this year, predictions like these are a valuable resource. As John Moore, head of international analytics at Aon Benfield said:

“Predicting the location of the next mega-earthquake is an inexact science but by examining the fault lines and historical precedence of earthquake activity in five of the world’s most vulnerable regions, this report sets out to assess the current risk and improve our understanding of where and when the next mega-earthquake could hit.”

Understanding when and where the next catastrophe could take place is the ultimate form of risk management.

Arkansas Flash Flood Kills at Least 19

Posted on by

Last Friday, America received yet another tragic lesson that Mother Nature’s wrath is unpredictable and unstoppable. At least 19 were killed by a flash flood at an Arkansas campground that hit while most of the campers were asleep with no way to escape the rush of water, mud and debris.

CNN is reporting a first-hand account from one of the flood survivors.

Survivor Terri Rhoeder, who lost her mother, brother and sister-in-law in the tragedy, described for CNN’s “American Morning” how quickly the water rose. She had been sleeping outside on an air mattress when she awoke and realized she was floating on the water.

“When I stood up from my bed, it was at my knees,” Rhoeder said. “By the time I could contemplate what was going on, its at my waist. And I was being swept out with it at my shoulders. As campers, we are used to nature. Not this extreme.”

The water rose from the normal level of four feet to 23 feet within a short period, Beebe said

Fortunately, her niece did survive — by grabbing a tree branch and hanging on for three hours waiting for a rescue team, which continued its efforts to locate as many people as possible in the immediate aftermath, eventually growing to some 100 rescuers as it continued to search throughout the Ouachita National Forest in western Arkansas.

Even with the tragedy so recent, it is — as always — important for those responsible for disaster response to evaluate what could have been done better. In this case, officials will look at the flash flood warning system.

The warning system intended to notify campers on federal land about potentially devastating weather will be re-examined in Arkansas and throughout the nation, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said Saturday.

You can hear about the disaster in the video below.

The Sun Hates You

Posted on by

You would never know it amid the cloudy, 40-degree weather here in Boston, but the sunny days of summer will be with us before you know it. The thing is that while many of us (particularly my fellow Northeasterners)  look forward to a little more sun in our lives, I’m not so sure the sun has our best interests at heart. I attended a session on solar storms the other day at RIMS 2010 and basically learned that there’s a good chance that the sun will be wreaking havoc on our cushy modern lives sometime in the not-so-distant future.

According to Dr. Sten Odenwald, a NASA astronomer, our sun is gearing up for what is called the 24th cycle–a period of increased sunspot activity, known to result in an uptick in solar flares and coronal mass ejections (massive jets of plasma that shoot out from the sun’s surface) that can effect the earth’s magnetic field. This sort of solar activity can damage GPS and satellite systems and cause power grid problems that evidently we are not prepared to deal with. In past periods of increased solar activity, earthlings have experience everything from TV and radio interference to a general increase in feelings of anxiety and panic. Airline traffic has had to be rerouted away from polar areas because radio communication is imposible. Satellites are degraded, shaving years off their useful lives and requiring millions of dollars of replacement or repair costs. Cosmic rays can fry sensitive computer components causing errors, glitches, of even total system failures. Basically it’s a mess.

But the real problem is that today, we are so much more dependent on technology than we ever were. We have a lot more to lose. John Kappenman of Storm Analysis Consultants pointed out that the power grid is particularly vulnerable. Many of the high-voltage transformers that we depend on to run just about everything are not adequately protected from exposure to cosmic rays and considering how costly and time-consuming these transformers are to replace (it takes a year or more just to build one), we would have a real problem if one goes down and,  say, takes out the power for the entire East Coast. According to estimates, about 130 million people are at risk in the most probable areas of power failure in the United States and we could see $1-2 trillion dollars in economic losses in the first year alone from a particularly bad, and unfortunately not unprecedented, solar storm. It’s a risk that sounds like the plot of a bad science fiction movie (I’m thinking something with Nicholas Cage) but its actually not even a little far-fetched.

The presenters were of the opinion that we need stronger design codes mandated by the government to prevent a sloar catastrophe. It certainly seems like a fine idea to me. Personally I’m thinking of starting my own sun worshipping cult. At the very least, it can’t hurt to get on the sun’s good side, right?

the sun

How the National Weather Service Uses Weather Balloons to Predict Disasters

Posted on by

It’s great to see FEMA embracing online video and pumping out so much interesting disaster-related content. As the agency reiterated recently, education and awareness are the keys to preparedness and, these days, there is no easier way to get the message out then with free-to-distribute online media.

Well done, FEMA.

This one is about how the National Weather Service helps predict disasters by using weather balloons. It clearly wasn’t direct by Matin Scorsese, but it is interesting and gives a nice, behind-the-scenes look at how NWS does its job.