All estimates have the projected path of Hurricane Irene heading straight for the most populated city in the nation. Just this morning, AccuWeather.com‘s Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski, predicted that the storm “is now on a path that could take it dangerously close to, if not over, the mid-Atlantic coastline and New York City on Sunday, posing a serious danger to millions of people.”
Following the almost-imminent brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the storm will come extremely close to or directly over New York City. In preparation, the city’s Department of Environmental Protection is lowering the water level in some of its upstate reservoirs to make room for storm runoff while Mayor Bloomberg is urging residents to prepare for the worst. (Good risk management, Mike B!).
The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model shows a direct landfall on New York City of a Category 2 Irene, an outcome that would be likely to push a significant storm surge up the Hudson River and raise the level of New York Harbor by 10 to 15 feet. This would truly be a historic blow to the city should it come to pass.
Though it is necessary to prepare for the worst when it comes to any natural disaster, we must keep in mind that forecast error for hurricane projections this far in advance averages about 150 to 200 miles.
The NYC Office of Emergency Management lists 1999’s Tropical Storm Floyd as the last storm affect the area. It brought flash flooding that caused NYC schools to close for the first time since 1996 and led the city to open emergency storm shelters. But the deadliest and most destructive hurricane to hit NYC was the “Long Island Express” in 1938. The category 3 hurricane crossed over Long Island and into New England, killing nearly 200 people — 10 of those in NYC. The storm knocked out power in all areas above 59th street and in all areas of the Bronx.
Here’s is an amazing (and somewhat horrifying if you live in NYC as most of our staff does) video by the History Channel of what could happen if the 1938 hurricane made landfall here today.
I’m a sucker for shows about disasters. “Mega Disasters” on the History Channel might be my favorite show. (With the one about the Yellowstone “Supervolcano” being my favorite.
Recently, I was watching another program in this genre, “Earth Under Water,” on Nat Geo. I’m not sure if this is a series or just a one-off, but it is pretty fascinating. It predictably discusses the coming climate change sea-level rise with the subtext being that we’re all pretty much, no pun intended, up the river without a paddle on this one. And if you live on the coast? Just move inland now.
A large structure stands out on the exhibition floor at the World Conference on Disaster Management, enticing virtually every attendee wandering around to poke his or her head inside. Directly next to it is the same structure in different form, this one a 5′ x 5′ x 5′ Lego-looking cube on wheels that draws people over to give it a roll.
Half-disaster shelter, half-Transformer, they call it the Life Cube.
And given its design it is one of the more innovative, comfortable and convenient temporary dwellings that anyone arriving on the scene of a disaster could hope to call home. It’s waterproof, fire-resistant, able to stand up to 70 mph winds and comes equipped with a hard plastic floor (which is a true luxury), bedding, a portable toilet and a solar panel-powered master console/table that has a stove, AM/FM radio, CB and a phone charger. And it goes from its cube state (which can fit into the bed of a normal pickup or be stacked on a flatbed or carried by a forklift) to its fully inflated command center state in under five minutes.
Nice digs if you can get it.
This tricked-out model starts at around $14,000, I’m told, although a more basic version can be purchased for as low as $9,000 and custom orders with even more gadgets could get as expensive as your imagination allows.
Heck, throw in a flat screen and it might be nicer than my New York apartment.
