Category Archives: Disaster Preparedness

New Forecasting Method Predicts 75% Chance of El Nino in 2014

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There is a 75% chance of an El Niño event in 2014, according to an early warning report published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The researchers used a new method that uses network analysis to predict weather systems up to a year ahead, instead of the usual six-month maximum of other approaches. The model successfully predicted the absence of El Niño in 2012 and 2013.

El Niño events are characterized by a warmer Pacific Ocean, which results in a disruption to the ocean-atmosphere system. This can lead to warmer temperatures worldwide, droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia, and heavy rain and flooding in parts of the U.S. and South America. If such an event occurred toward the end of 2014, the increased temperatures and drought conditions could persist through 2015.

The researchers suggested that their work might help farmers and government agencies by giving them more time to prepare and to consider investing in flood- or drought-resistant crops.

“Farmers might find it worthwhile to invest in drought- or flood-resistant varieties of crops,” Josef Ludescher and Armin Bunde told Businessweek. “A strong El Niño event in late 2014 can make 2015 a record year for global temperatures.”

The current highest record global temperatures date back to 1998, during the last strong El Niño. Given the continued increases in baseline temperature around the world, an El Niño event this year could lead to the record-breaking heat.

Last week, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center issued a similar warning. While the forecasters expect neutral conditions through the spring, a change in temperatures may “portend warming in the coming months.

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El Nino Phenomenon

Protect Outdoor Workers from Extreme Cold

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During this winter’s extreme cold spells, caused by a polar vortex creating frigid temperatures, workers are at added risk of cold stress. Increased wind speeds can cause air temperature to feel even colder. This increases the risk of cold stress for those working outdoors—including snow cleanup crews, construction workers, postal workers, police officers, recreational workers, firefighters, miners, baggage handlers, landscapers and support workers for the oil and gas industry.

The U.S. Department of Labor notes that what constitutes extreme cold and its effects can vary across the country. In regions that are not used to winter weather, for example, near freezing temperatures are considered “extreme cold.” Because a cold environment forces the body to work harder to maintain its temperature, as temperatures drop below normal and wind speeds increase, heat can leave the body more rapidly.

Wind chill is the temperature felt by the body when air temperature and wind speed are combined. For example, when the air temperature is 40°F, and the wind speed is 35 mph, the effect on exposed skin like an air temperature of 28°F.

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Cold stress can occur when the skin temperature goes down and the internal body temperature (core temperature) drops. This can lead to serious health problems and also cause tissue damage and possibly death. Exposed workers are vulnerable to hypothermia, frostbite and trench foot, the DOL said.

Some risk factors that contribute to cold stress are:

  • Wetness and dampness, dressing improperly and exhaustion
  • Predisposing health conditions such as hypertension, hypothyroidism and diabetes
  • Poor physical conditioning

The DOL recommends that employees working in frigid temperatures avoid alcohol, smoking and some medications to help minimize risks.

The best way to avoid cold stress is by wearing proper clothing. The type of fabric makes a difference as well. For example, cotton loses its insulation value when it becomes wet, while wool, silk and most synthetics retain their insulation even when wet.

Here are some clothing tips for workers in cold environments:

• For better insulation wear at least three layers of clothing: An inner layer of wool, silk or synthetic to wick moisture away from the body; a middle layer of wool or synthetic to provide insulation even when wet; and an outer wind and rain protection layer that allows some ventilation to prevent overheating.  Avoid tight fitting clothing.

• Wear a hat or hood to help keep the entire body warm.

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Hats reduce the amount of body heat that escapes from the head.

• Wear insulated boots or other appropriate footwear.

• Keep extra clothing (including underwear) handy in case clothing gets wet.

• Do not underestimate the wetting effects of perspiration. Venting of the body’s sweat and heat can be more important than protection from rain or snow, according to the DOL.

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) also issues guidelines. For example, because it is easy to become dehydrated in cold weather, employers can provide warm sweetened liquids to workers. Additionally:

• If possible, schedule heavy work for the warmer part of the day. Assign workers to tasks in pairs so that they can monitor each other for signs of cold stress.

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• Allow workers to interrupt their work if they are extremely uncomfortable.

• Give workers frequent breaks in warm areas.

• Acclimatize new workers and those returning after time away from work by gradually increasing their workload. Also allow more frequent breaks in warm areas to help them build tolerance for working in the cold environment.

These and other safety measures should be incorporated into the organization’s health and safety plan.

Northridge Quake Remembered

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Last week was the 20-year anniversary of the Northridge Earthquake. The 6.7-magnitude event that hit on Jan.

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17, 1994 at 4:30 a.m. stands as the second costliest disaster in U.S. history, following Hurricane Katrina. Northridge cost $42 billion in total damages, while Katrina cost $81 billion, according to federal figures.

The U.S. Geological Society (USGS) said that 60 people were killed, more than 7,000 injured, 20,000 were left homeless and more than 40,000 buildings were damaged in Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange and San Bernardino Counties.

The San Fernando Valley saw maximum intensities of magnitude-9 in the areas of Northridge and Sherman Oaks. Significant damage also occurred in Glendale, Santa Clarita, Santa Monica, Simi Valley, Fillmore and in western and central Los Angeles, the USGS said.

Seven freeway bridges collapsed, 212 others were damaged and 82,000 residential and commercial buildings were damaged or destroyed. About 200 steel-frame buildings suffering significant cracking, AP reported. Collapsed overpasses closed sections of the Santa Monica Freeway, the Antelope Valley Freeway, the Simi Valley Freeway and the Golden State Freeway.

The quake resulted in $12.5 billion in insurance payouts. If the event happened today, insured losses would be about $24 billion, AIR Worldwide said.

This was a significant event for me, as I was living in Los Angeles at the time. I had been living there for five years and this was my first, and hopefully last ever, earthquake experience. There had been many false alarms over the years that usually ended up being something like an extra heavy truck rumbling by. But when the real thing happened there was no question that it was, indeed, an earthquake.

Pretty much anything that could have been broken in my place was. Bookcases tumbled over sending contents everywhere. One of my sisters, who lived in Simi Valley, had every cabinet and drawer emptied by the shaking. Televisions, appliances and most furniture were ruined. Because there was no power for days and everyone in her neighborhood risked losing all their frozen food, she and her neighbors came together. They brought all of their grills and frozen food into the middle of the street where they proceeded to cook everything, supplying food for the neighborhood for days. This not only used up any food that would have otherwise spoiled, but it gave the kids a chance to run around and play with their friends and get their minds off of the terrible destruction surrounding them.

Because an earthquake is so sudden and severe, experiencing something like that is a shock to the system and takes a while to get over. Driving through L.A., I saw flattened homes, cars, apartment buildings, office buildings and parking structures.

One big success story and source of pride for Los Angeles was the Santa Monica Freeway, one of the world’s busiest, which had two areas collapse during the earthquake. It was a proud moment when freeway repairs were finished a full 74 days early. It’s a testament to what strong wills, traffic tie-ups and a large bonus will do.

The Los Angeles Times reported:

Spurred by the promise of an extra $200,000 a day for every day work was completed ahead of schedule, the contractor, C. C. Myers Inc., will finish the project 74 days before a June 24 deadline and rack up a $14.5-million bonus for the company.

The high-speed construction was made possible by crews working around the clock, seven days a week, and by state officials cutting through red tape.

“This freeway, with its broken bridges, broken connectors, became one of the most visible signs of the devastation brought upon Los Angeles by the Northridge earthquake,” Gov. Pete Wilson said during a news conference at the freeway.

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“Now its rebuilding and its reopening . . . will serve as one of the . . . symbols of the energy of this great community.”

In Sacramento, Caltrans Director James van Loben Sels estimated that without the accelerated effort the project would probably have taken two years to complete.

But the acceleration did not come without cost. With the bonuses given to C. C. Myers, the price tag on the project rose from the original bid of .

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9 million to nearly $30 million.

TRIA Will be Renewed, P-C Panel Agrees

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Photo by Don Pollard

NEW YORK—Insurance industry experts in a panel discussion agreed that while terrorism risks are changing, they believe the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA), set to expire Dec. 31, 2014, will be reauthorized by Congress. In fact, a poll taken at the annual Property/Casualty Insurance Joint Industry Forum found that 93% of attendees believe TRIA will be renewed.

“In the U.S., we’re moving away from the risk of catastrophic-scale terrorism. But we are probably more likely to have the Boston Marathon type of terrorism,” said Stephen Flynn, professor of political science and founding director of the Center for Resilience Studies at Northeastern University in Boston.

The reasons are that, “The know-how to carry out these low-end acts is pervasive and the opportunities for this type of terrorism are relatively high. Because they can be conducted on a small scale, they are difficult to plan for in advance and intercept,” he explained, adding, “In my mind there is no question that the feds need to play a backstop role. This isn’t a natural market. It’s not a natural disaster environment. The role an industry can play in educating about risk and engaging mitigation measures is a very useful public policy outcome of the feds playing a role as a backstop.”

The six-member panel was moderated by Julie Rochman, president and CEO of the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety.

Robert H. Easton,executive deputy superintendent of the insurance division at the New York Department of Financial Services [pictured above with John Huff, director of the Missouri Department of Insurance] said, “We would like to see TRIA in some form become permanent so we don’t have to have this discussion every few years.”

Easton added, “The political reality is that this is unlikely to occur, but our view is that if anybody should be taking one of the more extreme views it is New York. The program has been critical to insuring that there is sufficient capacity in the marketplace.”

Huff agreed that it needs to be renewed, but noted that TRIA should not be a “big state, small state issue.” Rather it should be supported by states of all sizes. “Missouri has a significant urban, suburban and rural presence,” he said.

Jay Gelb, managing director and senior equity analyst for Barclays believes TRIA will be reauthorized at the last minute. If reauthorization doesn’t happen, “It would be concerning from an investment viewpoint,” however, “Insurers could underwrite the exposure or limit their concentrations in target areas, especially in lines where losses cannot be excluded, such as workers compensation.”

Matthew Mosher, senior vice president and chief rating officer for the A.M. Best Company observed that while insurers can, indeed, manage the risk of terrorism, and even avoid it, “what does that do for the nation as a whole? When you look at the impact of TRIA, it comes down to how much risk you want individuals to absorb. At this point insurers are not able to provide a large amount of coverage without a backstop.”

In terms of adjustments to the program, Easton said, “We would like to see the inclusion of cyber as a risk that TRIA addresses. The cyber world is very different today than even 12 or 13 years ago.”

For the poll questions and full survey results, go to 2014 Property/Casualty Insurance Joint Industry Forum Questionnaire.