Category Archives: Disaster Preparedness

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A Trump Presidency Poses Top Risk to Global Economy

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According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, a Donald Trump presidency poses one of the greatest current global risks. Indeed, Trump ranks as the sixth overall potential risk to the global economy, and based on a 25-point scale, the research firm rated the risk approximately equal to the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizing the global economy.

The EIU, research and analysis sister company to the Economist, ranks risks based on both impact and probability, with a Trump presidency presenting considerable potential impact, but moderate probability. The EIU’s assessment focused in particular on Trump’s hostility toward free trade (most notably NAFTA), aggressive rhetoric on China, and “exceptionally right-wing stance” on the Middle East and jihadi terrorism.

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“In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war—and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016,” EIU analysts wrote. “His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the U.S.) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.”

The firm concluded with a prediction that, while it believes Trump will most likely lose to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, that probability could change in the event of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil or a sudden economic downturn.

In such a scenario, the trickle-down effect within the American political machine poses noteworthy risk as well.

“Innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr. Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress,” the report says.

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But “such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.”

The firm’s overall top 10 risks by point ranking are:

economist intelligence unit top global economy risks

Brussels Bombings Highlight New Risk Realities

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Belgium map
The deadly terrorist bombings in Brussels this week have elicited an outpouring of support for the victims and for Belgium, along with renewed rage and consternation regarding ISIS. These are predictable reactions.

What these acts also elicited, I’ve noticed, are numerous comments from many outlets that the attacks were not surprising.

The BBC, in fact, said the bombings were “not a surprise” and security experts chimed in with similar assessments. Even Belgians themselves admit that the attack wasn’t shocking—Prime Minister, Charles Michel, lamented that “what we feared, has happened.” Think about how much has changed in less than a generation. Now, when the capital of the EU and NATO becomes a war zone, many react as though this is business as usual.

When it comes to political violence and warfare, we (or at least Western Europe) are living in a brave new world.

In fact, research I’ve conducted in recent weeks for a RIMS Executive Report on political risk confirms how much the paradigm has changed. Political risk experts I interviewed have been emphasizing this point. “I think it is truly a distinctive point in world affairs,” said one. Another confessed, “I’ve been doing this for nearly 20 years, and this is by far the most unstable, tenuous, deteriorating…risk environment I’ve ever seen.”

These sentiments are based on more than ISIS. Recent developments include the Ukraine civil war, the migrant crisis, deterioration of large swaths of the Middle East, tensions in the South China Sea, a weakening Chinese economy and Brazil’s political crisis. All contribute to a consensus that things are changing.

For the risk community, a big change is formerly reliable standards of which parts of the world are stable and which are unstable, such as developed economies versus developing and first-world versus second- and third-world. Now more than ever, risk managers considering the security of global operations need to examine a country’s vital signs rather than rely on conventional wisdom about stability. And if mass-casualty terror attacks are the new normal for Western Europe, a number of risk professionals will need to become better acquainted with the realities of political violence.

To end on a positive note, however, we do not have to believe the sky is falling. While terrorist attacks are brutal and unfortunate, it is consoling to think about the odds of being a victim. As data nerds are happy to point out, a person is much more likely to meet his or her demise from bathtubs, dogs and food poisoning. The Post has reported that you are more likely to be crushed by furniture than snuffed out by ISIS.

Building Resilience, City by City

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Highline park

With escalating risks and uncertainty around the globe, cities are challenged with understanding and circumventing those risks to stay vital. Much as in the business world, municipalities are moving towards resilience—the capability to survive, adapt and grow no matter what types of stresses are experienced.

Recognizing that they have much to offer each other, communities and businesses are often working together to pool their experience and knowledge. Helping to foster this is a project called the 100 Resilient Cities Challenge, funded by the Rockefeller Foundation. The project has selected 100 cities around the world and provided funding for them to hire a chief resilience officer.

“Resilience is a study of complex systems,” said Charles Rath, president and CEO of Resilient Solutons 21.

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He spoke about resilience and his experiences with the 100 Resilient Cities Challenge at the recent forum, “Pathways to Resilience,” hosted by the American Security Project and Lloyd’s in Washington, D.C. “To me, resilience is a mechanism that allows us to look at our cities, communities, governments and businesses almost as living organisms—economic systems that are connected to social systems, that are connected to environmental systems and fiscal systems. One area we need to work on is understanding those connections and how these systems work.

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“Green space

Rath said that cities that have successfully implemented innovative resilient solutions have been able to “identify and communicate co-benefits. If you do some research around those jurisdictions that received funding, you’ll see interesting strategies that address their risks, but also have added economic, social and other co-benefits.”

Examples were evident after Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy. “Those communities that were able to bounce back quickest were those that had strong, socially cohesive societies. We also know that social cohesion drives economic activities in urban areas as well,” he said.

One of the first projects he worked on for the Resilient Cities Challenge was with the city of El Paso. “It is in the southwest and excessive heat is an issue they are dealing with,” he explained. “They have many parts of the city that see significant spikes in temperature, which leads to asthma, increased cooling costs and the list goes on. It’s projected over the next 70 or so years to increase 7 to 10 degrees, so it’s a big problem.”

To address the issue, he researched the issue and met with El Paso’s city manager. “We were able to pinpoint all of the different areas in El Paso where there is heat island effect,” he said. “We could tell what degree it was and roughly what was causing it.”

Causes for the escalating heat proved to be a lack of reflectivity, impermeable surfaces and lack of green space. “But it was at the point where we told him that he was costing the city about $150 million a year in increased cooling costs—because we were able to isolate the building outlines in the downtown area—that he began to pay attention,” he said. “Then we also showed him areas of the city where there was increased heat island effect where there was a significant amount of concrete. There were also a large percentage of children in the area who didn’t have access to parks.”

A solution for both dilemmas could be achieved by “transforming those vacant lots to pocket parks so that kids could have access to playgrounds.” he said, adding, “Those types of solutions with multiple co-benefits are an important element of what we are doing and this encouraged us to explore that.”

Is Fear of Terrorism Grounding Your Business Travel?

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Paris

The recent acts of terrorism in Paris stunned the world, when 150 were killed and more than 300 were wounded. But the collateral damage went far beyond buildings being ripped apart and one of the most popular cities in the world being virtually shut down.

Business Travel Coalition, a U.S.-based lobby group, recently released a survey of 84 corporate, university and government travel and risk managers from 17 countries on their attitudes of trips to France following the bombings.

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Twenty-one percent of the respondents said they were very or somewhat likely to cancel travel to France for “some period of time,” and 20% were somewhat likely to cancel travel to and within Europe. A large majority said they’d probably allow employees to decide whether they were prepared to head to France.

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One in five corporate travel managers is likely to cancel trips to Paris “for some period of time.” These are not surprising statistics.

Terrorism has been defined as “The use of violence to instill a state of fear,” and that effect is far-reaching; a bomb explodes in Paris and it’s likely that 5,600 miles away in California some corporate risk manager for a Fortune 500 company is seriously considering cancelling a business trip to Europe—a visceral reaction that could cost his company untold sums of money. Mission accomplished.

But it doesn’t have to be that way.

I fully realize that the fire that fuels business owners is the desire to overcome any obstacles perceived to hinder the bottom-line. But there’s no way a sane person can watch the news today and not wonder, “What is the risk of undertaking a business trip overseas? Will I fall victim to a terrorist act?” I contend that the answer to this question is to put your risk in perspective.

Although it’s a sad state of affairs that there will most likely be another terrorist attack in Europe sometime in 2016, it doesn’t mean that a high degree of risk involved for you, personally. According to the U.S. State Department, the number of U.S. citizens killed overseas by incidents of terrorism from 2001 to 2013 was 350. In other words, your odds are greater to be killed in a car crash (one in 19,000), drown in your bathtub (one in 800,000), or be struck by lightning (one in 5.5 million) than to perish in a terrorist attack (one in 20 million).

It is important that we don’t allow acts of terrorism to knock the wheels off our economy. Business travel is a key element in making us what we are, so it’s imperative that we mitigate that risk whenever possible.

The first thing is to make sure you are not so focused on terrorism that you fall victim to the common risks swirling around us every day. For instance, when traveling overseas don’t be so obsessed with where you think an incident might happen (no matter how statistically unlikely) that you select an alternate route that takes you through the last place on earth where you’d want to get a flat tire in the middle of the night.

Second, minimize the risks you have control over.

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Stay up-to-date on the State Department’s list of global hot spots, and have your business travel professional plan each step, down to the slightest detail (air, hotels, ground and communication).

Detailed planning is paramount because with any type of business travel in these uncertain and even downright scary times, it is all about controlling the risk. And that can start with the simple act of driving carefully on the way to the airport. That way the most likely risk you’ll ever face on your trip is already behind you before you even board the plane.