Category Archives: Disaster Preparedness

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Going Lo-Fi At Sea May Mitigate Cyberrisk

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Cyberthreats have become seaborne in recent years, and preventative measures are on the radars of governments and the shipping industry.

GPS and other electronic systems have proven to help ensure safe and accurate navigation, but they have also put digital bullseyes on ship decks. These technology upgrades have unwittingly exposed ships to cyberrisk because their signals are weak enough for remote perpetrators to jam.

When ships and crew members rely solely on GPS systems, they can be at the mercy of a cyberhacker seeking to provide wrong positions (or “spoof”), endanger the crew and their cargo, or hold the crew, cargo or sensitive information for ransom.

These risks are exacerbated by the fact that ships typically do not have automatic backup systems, and younger crew members are increasingly reliant upon the newer electronic navigation tools.

Allianz’s Safety and Shipping Review 2017 highlighted the growing threat of cybercrime in the sector, and noted the increasing level of activity in the last five years. For example, World Fuel Services fell victim to an online bunkering scam in 2014 when it agreed to participate in a tender for a large amount of fuel from what it believed to be the United States Defense Logistics Agency. Cybercriminals collected $18 million from that successful impersonation. In 2016, hundreds of South Korean vessels had to return to their ports after North Korea allegedly jammed their GPS signals.

The report noted that most maritime cyberattacks have been aimed at breaching corporate security, rather than taking control of vessels, but warned that such attacks could occur.

Captain Rahul Khanna, head of marine risk consulting at Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, noted in the report that more, larger-scale attacks are imminent if the risks are not appropriately addressed. “We can’t put IT security on the backburner,” Khanna said. “Just imagine if hackers were able to take control of a large container ship on a strategically-important route. They could block transits for a long period of time, causing significant economic damage.”

The report also stressed that “crew education and identifying measures to back up and restore systems should be implemented” to reduce cyberrisk.

Looking Back For a Signal Forward
Some companies and governments have heeded the warnings and are identifying these indicators of attack. Preventative measures may lie in a maritime tool that had taken a backseat to the prevalence of GPS—a backup radio technology called Enhanced Long-Range Navigation (eLoran), which was developed in the United States in the mid-1990s. It has continental reach, emits strong signals via a low-frequency and relies on land-based transmitters that reveal a limited number of fixed positions. These once-limiting traits could be the automatic backup systems ships need in the event of jamming or spoofing.

On July 20, 2017, when the Department of Homeland Security Authorization Act (H.R. 2825) passed the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives, eLoran’s importance was stressed. The act includes a section titled “Backup Global Positioning System,” which features provisions for the U.S. Secretary of Transportation to initiate an eLoran system. H.R. 2825 proposes that eLoran be made available as a “reliable…positioning, navigation and timing system,” with the purpose of providing “a complement to, and backup for the Global Positioning System to ensure availability of uncorrupted and nondegraded positioning, navigation and timing signals for military and civilian users.”

Reuters this week reported that South Korea’s Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries is looking to establish the technology in a test form by 2019.

Time will tell if eLoran is the most practical and cost-efficient method to mitigate cyberthreats at sea. It seems if companies want to mitigate maritime cyberrisk now, the first steps would be to look to the technology of the past and turn on the radio.

Combating Risks to the Electric Grid

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Electricity is the foundation of society, making the electric grid one of our most critical infrastructures.

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It is also one of the most vulnerable, and is subject to a number of variables, according to, Lights Out: The risks of climate and natural disaster-related disruption to the electric grid, a study by students of Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, funded by Swiss Re.

According to the report, in recent years there has been a trend of more natural disasters globally, with 191 natural catastrophes in 2016 and a 24% increase from the level in 2007.

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In the United States, 43 natural catastrophes caused huge property losses in 2016, almost double those of 2007.

Lights Out focuses on the Pacific Northwest, which is an “illustrative case study in climate and natural disaster related electric grid disruption. The region is prone not only to high-frequency, low-intensity natural disasters such as droughts and flooding, but also at risk of catastrophes like the Cascadian Subduction Zone (CSZ) event, an earthquake-tsunami combination that is expected to devastate the coastline from northern California to southern British Columbia,” according to the report.

As climate change alters the seasonality of water runoffs in the Pacific Northwest, the study found that electricity generation and the operation and maintenance of hydroelectric dams face greater challenges. What’s more, different parts of the grid are vulnerable to different perils. For example, above-ground lines are vulnerable to weather events, while underground lines are susceptible to earthquakes. In Oregon, for example:

More than 50% of substations would be damaged beyond repair in the event of a magnitude 9.0 earthquake. In addition, the vulnerability of the electric grid is highly interdependent with other critical infrastructure systems, including roads, water and sewage treatment, and natural gas pipelines. In the event of a major earthquake, damage to road networks can make it impossible to repair transmission and distribution lines, thereby preventing the restoration of all other electricity-dependent lifeline services (water, sewage, telecommunications).

The costs of outages for construction and restoration of the grid are estimated to be 1.59 times higher in highly populated locations versus flat land areas with fewer inhabitants. Costs are also higher when infrastructures such as emergency roads are destroyed, which would slow down repairs to roads, in turn delaying restoration of electric power and impacting telecommunications, water and sewage services.

There may be long-term financial implications as well, as entire communities would be impacted, leading to a possible migration of residents to areas not effected by the disaster. Following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, for example, the population of New Orleans dropped dramatically, and 10 years later, had only returned to 90% of its pre- 2005 levels.

Total population of New Orleans 2000-2015; Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005:

With the increase in natural disasters, the recent destruction caused by Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy as well as the prospect of a magnitude 9.0 Cascadia earthquake, “It is imperative that public and private sector entities explore potential solutions for combating and mitigating damage to the electrical grid and disruption from power outages.” The report urged utilities to increase the resilience of their systems in a number of ways, beginning with conducting utility vulnerability assessments to identify vulnerable infrastructure and develop resilience plans. While many utilities have taken the initial step of identifying the resilience and mitigation strategies that they intend to implement, their implementations after these assessments vary widely by utility.

Utilities have several options for hardening the resilience of their systems, depending on the specific types of natural hazards they face. For example, checking poles for rot and moving infrastructure out of flood zones and landslide-prone areas helps to maintain distribution and transmission infrastructures, keeping them from going down in regions with heavy rainfall and flood risk. Pruning trees to protect wires from falling branches is also important in regions experiencing higher intensity storms, according to the report.

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Highlighted trends:

  • Climate change is causing more severe and frequent natural disasters, meaning power systems face increased strain from catastrophes.
  • The interdependence of systems creates further complications: if the electric grid is down for an extended period, collateral effects can lead to disruptions in other services such as water, sewage and telecommunications.
  • The economic implications are challenging governments and energy providers. Not only do they require pre-disaster financing provided by insurance, they must address how to make their systems more resilient to future flooding, droughts and earthquakes.

Protecting Your Business from Wildfires

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There are currently about 60 large wildfires burning in the United States, mostly in western states.

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But a combination of high temperatures and dry and windy conditions can make wildfires a threat almost anywhere. Adding to the situation is the fact that more and more businesses are expanding into the wildland-urban interface (WUI)—wildfire-prone areas where homes and businesses are located. This creates a growing wildfire risk to businesses, according to the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety (IIBHS).

The Property Casualty Insurers Association of America lists the most expensive U.S. wildfires to date, all in western states:

To protect buildings from wildfires, IIBHS recommends that businesses survey the materials and design features of their structures; as well as the types of plants used, their location and maintenance.

Organizations also should determine their fire hazard severity zone (FHSZ) by evaluating the landscape, fire history in the area and terrain features such as slope of the land. Organizations can request the FHSZ rating from local building or fire officials in their area.

IIBHS notes three sources of wildfire ignition:

  1. Burning embers, or firebrands, generated by a wildfire and made worse in windy conditions.
    • Embers can ignite in several ways: By igniting combustible construction materials directly when accumulating on or immediately adjacent to them. Combustible construction materials are those that ignite and burn such as wood, plastic, and wood-plastic products used in decking and siding. By igniting nearby plants and accumulated debris such as pine needles or other combustible materials such as a wood pile.
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      By entering a building through openings, such as an open window or attic vent, and ignite combustible items inside the building.
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  1. Direct flame contact from the wildfire
  2. Radiant heat emanating from the fire

It is critical to assess a building’s construction, including roofs, windows, vents and exterior walls, also important is the area surrounding a structure, including trees and plants, IIBHS said.

A defensible space zone around the building will reduce the risk of fire. This includes consideration of specific types of plants and how they are grouped and maintained.

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Plant characteristics associated with higher combustibility include:

  • Narrow leaves or needles (often evergreen)
  • Volatile resins and oils, as indicated by leaves that have an aromatic odor when crushed
  • Accumulation of fine, twiggy, dry, or dead material on the plant or on the ground under the plant
  • Loose or papery bark that often falls off and accumulates on the ground (such as palms and eucalyptus).

Marsh Tracks Top Captive Trends

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The number of captive insurers continues to increase globally, from 5,000 in 2006 to more than 7,000 in 2016. Once formed primarily by large companies, the captive market has opened up to mid-size and small businesses. The industry is also seeing a trend in companies forming more than one captive, using them for cyber, political risk and other exposures, according to a recent Marsh report, Captives at the Core: The Foundation of a Risk Financing Strategy.

Organizations are seeing disruptions in a number of areas and are relying more on their existing captives, Marsh said. Because of their flexibility, captives are also being used to respond to market cycles and organizational changes such as mergers and acquisitions.

While North America and Europe still dominate in numbers of captives, other regions have shown more interest in the past three years. In Latin America, captive formation increased 11% in 2016, the study found.

Within the United States, there is more competition among domiciles and some of the newer domiciles are experiencing growth. The top-growing U.S. domiciles in 2016 were Texas, Connecticut, Nevada, New Jersey, Tennessee, and New York. Domiciles outside the U.S. seeing the most growth include Sweden, Guernsey, Singapore, Malta, and the Cayman Islands.
As organizations’ exposures increase in number, complexity and severity, shareholder funds generated by captives are becoming more important. According to Marsh:

For many clients, captives are at the core of their risk management strategy, going beyond the financing of traditional property/casualty risks.

Specifically, we are seeing an increase in parent companies using captive shareholder funds to underwrite an influx of new and non-traditional risks, including cyber, supply chain, employee benefits, and terrorism, as well as to develop analytics associated with these risks and fund other risk management initiatives.

Risk management projects funded by captive shareholder funds in 2016 included initiatives to determine capital efficiency and optimal risk retention levels in the form of risk-finance optimization; quantify cyber business-interruption exposures; accelerate the closure of legacy claims; and improve workforce and fleet safety/loss control policies.

For example, Marsh-managed captives used to address cyber liability increased by 19% from 2015 to 2016. Since 2012, in fact, cyber liability programs in captives have skyrocketed 210%.
“We expect to see a continued increase, driven in part by companies that are already strong captive users and by those that may have difficulty insuring their professional liability risks,” Marsh said.