Category Archives: Disaster Preparedness

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Amid Wildfires, California’s Emergency Warning Systems Take Heat

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Overnight, the Mendocino Complex Fire in Northern California expanded far enough to oust the 2017 Thomas Fire as the largest wildfire in the state’s history. Comprising two joined fires, the Mendocino Complex Fire has burned through 443 square miles in the area north of San Francisco. As of Tuesday morning, the fires burned more than 140 structures, including at least 75 homes, and was 30% contained.

But California’s residents and businesses still should be on alert, as the incendiary activity doesn’t end there. An unprecedented 14,000 firefighters are combating between 12 and 16 wildfires in the state, according to the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Particular emphasis is in Northern California, where the fires in Mariposa and Shasta counties continue to threaten residents, businesses, and emergency responders. For 26 days, the Ferguson Fire in Mariposa County has burned nearly 90,000 acres and caused two fatalities. The fire is having a huge impact on areas near and around Yosemite National Park, which alerted the public that it had closed all but two entrances and roads.

Redding, a city 150 miles north of Sacramento, is the site of the Carr Fire, which has been ablaze for two weeks. Weather.com reported that the fire has caused seven deaths and the destruction of nearly 1,600 structures, the majority of which are homes.

The city of Redding launched an interactive map that provides residents with images of neighborhoods so they can check the status of their homes. Reports indicate that more than 1,800 structures are still in the path of the fire.

Despite such technological advances, many residents have questioned the effectiveness of the state’s emergency notification system, which they rely on for evacuation notices.

The California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services currently uses an integrated California Public Alert and Warning System (CalPAWS) Plan to warn the public of danger.

Affected residents in several areas have claimed that they did not receive the CalPAWS evacuation order – including the great-grandmother who perished in the Carr fire in July with her two great-grandchildren. On Aug. 4, California Gov. Jerry Brown held a press conference in Shasta County to discuss the damage. But California’s emergency notification systems—and its unreliability in certain areas of the state—were a central focus of the conference.

Gov. Brown said he would consider legislation to improve alert systems, acknowledging local lawmakers’ proposals in an effort to create a statewide system that requires registration from all residents.

“I think we do need the best alert system we can get, and that’s what I would help the Legislature achieve,” Brown said, according to the Sacramento Bee. “There’s a lot of things we can do, and we can always do more …

given the rising threats on the changing of the weather, the climate.”

The Bee reported that a bill with adoption plans for a uniform alert system has been drafted:

The bill, Senate Bill 833, would require counties to automatically sign up residents for a uniform cell phone alert system. It would also fund a standardized system equipped to push out alerts on all forms of media—radio, television, electronic highway billboards and landlines. County emergency managers would be required to undergo annual training on the latest alert technology.

Under such a plan, which would utilize the federal Wireless Emergency Alerts system, they’d have to opt out rather than sign up voluntarily.

Furthermore, the governor said he hopes to overhaul the state’s 911 system, which would de-centralize the calls and notifications to ensure more accurate messaging.

Also on Aug. 4, the White House approved California’s request for a Presidential Major Disaster Declaration to help with the impacts of the wildfire in Shasta County.

“This is part of a trend—a new normal—that we’ve got to deal with. We’re dealing with it humanly, financially and governmentally,” Gov. Brown said during a media briefing at the Carr Fire Incident Command Post in Anderson, California. “These kinds of horrible situations bring people together, regardless of the lesser kind of ideologies and partisan considerations.”

Resiliency in 2018: Q&A With BCI’s David Thorp

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Organizational resiliency is a focus of the Business Continuity Institute (BCI) and executive director David Thorp. It was the theme of this year’s annual Business Continuity Awareness Week, which Risk Management Monitor covered in May, and was the focus of BCI’s updated manifesto.

We reached out to Thorp to get his insight on organizational resiliency, how businesses can improve their continuity plans and for ways to better incorporate them into their culture.

Risk Management Monitor: What companies have best demonstrated resilience?

David Thorp: A few examples of organizations that have displayed a high level of resilience are Apple, TomTom, and PostNL.

Apple displayed resilience when they reemployed Steve Jobs to reshape the company.

TomTom started by making software for Palm computers. It has dealt with a rapidly changing marketplace and over the years it has:

  • produced navigation software for PDAs (personal digital assistant)
  • produced its own navigation devices
  • developed live traffic information
  • acquired a digital mapping company
  • developed navigation software for smartphones
  • struck up deals with car manufacturers

PostNL (formerly TNT) has had to adapt to the decline in regular mail as well as tapping into the requirement to deliver more packages (outside working hours) as a result of an increase of web shops.

RMM:  What do organizations most commonly overlook in their continuity planning?

DT: Two most commonly overlooked aspects are keeping plans up to date and exercising/testing.

Business continuity management is often initiated as a project, usually assisted with external expertise. Internal personnel frequently have this role in addition to their “normal” functions. As the organization changes, these plans often get overlooked. After one or two exercises have been carried out, the focus on exercising quickly diminishes.

Unfortunately, these two aspects have a large impact on the ability to recover as planned. It could be argued that this is an indication of a lack of management commitment.

RMM: Why do so many companies overlook their continuity planning and emergency preparedness?

DT: The biggest reason is that it is not a requirement for many organizations. When not required by a regulator or a customer, the organization must:

  1. know about continuity planning and emergency preparedness
  2. understand their risk
  3. understand its value before there is a possibility of it being implemented

By not having done a risk or impact analysis, it is also easy for organizations to think that a disruptive event will not happen to them and therefore not worth the hassle and investment.

RMM: How much time and effort does creating and initiating a business continuity plan take?

DT: This depends on the size and complexity of the organization, the ambition level and the resources available. For small organizations, it is possible to create and exercise plans within a month—but this would typically take a little longer as the required people will also have other tasks. For a large and more complex organization, it may take two-to-three years to reach the desired maturity level.

RMM: What advances would you like to see the global risk management community achieve with regard to planning and preparedness?

DT: I would like to see a better understanding of each other’s disciplines and a better collaboration between them. There is much overlap between the two disciplines and with better collaboration, we can more efficiently and effectively minimize risks and improve the continuity. We are currently working on better understanding how we achieve synergy between business continuity and risk management. We see this as being a prerequisite for achieving organizational resilience. Collaboration with other disciplines is also necessary.

RMM: We’ve seen examples of reputation crises that have in some cases forced companies to close. How can organizations avoid these pitfalls?

DT: A major factor in managing the extent of the reputation damage is the quality of the crisis communication. How well and honestly you inform those affected and of course how you deal with social media makes the difference in how you are perceived. The subsequent actions need to be in line with the messages communicated.

RMM: What has changed in the BCI’s Manifesto for Organizational Resilience that risk professionals should know about?

DT: The manifesto is built on the simple premise that resilience is not the responsibility of one part of the organization—it is the responsibility of discipline within an organization working closely together toward a common purpose. Risk Management, emergency planning, disaster recovery, security, facilities management, business continuity management, supply chain management, IT management, HR management…all have an equal role to play in delivering resilience.

The manifesto contains our undertaking to seek out alliances with other professional bodies along the spectrum of what might be termed “resilience disciplines” in order to work collaboratively. This would make organizations more resilient than if we each work within our own silo.

Safety Groups Warn of Added Summer Risks

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Summer has arrived, but it is not a time for total relaxation. According to the National Safety Council (NSC), July and August typically see more accidental deaths than any other two-month period—a trend that includes drowning, pediatric vehicular heatstroke, pedestrian deaths, natural disasters and gun-related fatalities.

To stress the need for extra caution, the NSC has updated its Injury Facts interactive online database. This year marks the first time the NSC has categorized “hot car deaths” – which it recognizes as an emerging risk.

“Unfortunately, when we look at accidental deaths, summer is not the carefree period we’d like it to be,” NSC Manager of Statistics Ken Kolosh said. “The numbers underscore the need for public awareness. We hope Injury Facts can help people understand the biggest risks to their safety and take the steps needed to ensure no one gets hurt.”

With Independence Day arriving next Wednesday, more workers are expected to travel and take time off from their jobs. With an increase of people on the road and in pools and oceans, for example, more people are at risk of injury or death.
The NSC information released earlier this week dovetails with the end of National Safety Month. Facts and trends include:

  • Pedestrian fatalities. Pedestrian deaths start to increase in late summer and continue a steady increase through the end of the year. Since 2009, pedestrian deaths have risen sharply, totaling 7,330 in 2016 compared to 4,109 in 2009. For the first time, Injury Facts shows where pedestrian fatalities tend to occur, outdoor lighting conditions at the time of the death and the day of the week the incident occurred.
  • Drownings. Swimming, playing in the water or falling in the water claimed 656 lives in July alone in 2016, a 108% increase over the yearly average and their highest level that year. In total, 3,786 people died in 2016 from drowning. Injury Facts now breaks down all preventable deaths by month so people understand the biggest risks facing them throughout the calendar year.

When chronicling drunk driving incidents, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) is pointing out the deadliness of the four-day period between July 2 and July 6. Over the 2016 Fourth of July holiday:

  • 188 people were killed in crashes involving at least one driver or motorcycle operator with a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of .08 or higher.  (A 28% increase from 2015, which had 146 fatalities).
  • Nearly half of those who died were in a vehicle crash involving at least one driver or motorcycle operator with a BAC of .15 or higher—almost twice the legal limit.

Even if you’re off the road and hosting a company party or celebrating in a backyard, there are risks all around. The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) warns that there are more fires reported on the Fourth of July than any other day of the year, nearly half of which are caused by fireworks. With extreme drought plaguing the western states, fireworks, outdoor grilling areas, and campfires require extra caution. The NFPA said that July is the peak month for grilling fires, with gas leaks cited as the leading cause.

And while looking to the sky for a fireworks show is always fun, the aforementioned groups recommend attending displays put on by professionals only and avoiding consumer fireworks. According to the Consumer Product Safety Commission’s (CPSC) 2017 Fireworks Annual Report, fireworks were involved in an estimated 11,100 injuries treated in U.S. hospital emergency departments in 2016.

“Preventable injuries are the third leading cause of death for the first time in United States history,” NSC President and CEO Debbie Hersman recently told Risk Management Monitor. “Sadly, our national opioid epidemic and the sudden recent increase in motor vehicle deaths have propelled preventable injuries past chronic lower respiratory disease and stroke in terms of how many lives are lost each year. Every single unintentional injury could have been prevented.”

Despite A ‘Near-Average’ Forecast, Hurricane Flooding May Increase

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With so many businesses and individuals affected by Hurricanes including Maria, Harvey and Irma in 2017, risk managers and insurers are looking to revised forecasts of this year’s hurricane season for a glimmer of hope that 2018 will not bring the same destruction. They may have found it in new information released by Colorado State University, which indicates that a near-average season is likely. It predicts 14 named storms between now and Nov. 30, of which six would become hurricanes. But the caveat is that one immense storm during a “near-average” season can still wreak havoc on businesses and homes.
The criteria is heavily based on the number of hurricanes and not their economic impact. Look to other years with similar buzzword descriptors to determine if its impact is included in your organization’s systematic risk.

“The years 1960, 1967 and 2006 had near-average Atlantic hurricane activity, while 1996 and 2011 were both above-normal hurricane seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.

Most of those years endured damage caused by heavy tropical storms—the most noteworthy was 2011 when Hurricane Irene touched down and ultimately cost $15 billion alone. Klotzbach’s team predicts that 2018 hurricane activity will be about 135% of the average season. By comparison, 2017’s hurricane activity, highlighted by Harvey, Irma and Maria, exceeded average season expectations by about 245%.

Given the outlook, experts are still optimistic about the insurance industry’s resilience. A recent Moody’s report noted that despite last year’s losses, the reinsurance industry has sufficient capital to absorb hurricane-related claims.

“Hurricanes, particularly Harvey, Irma and Maria, alongside other catastrophe events last year wiped out a number of reinsurers’ profitability for the year and drove the sector’s profitability to its lowest level since 2005,” analyst Rocio Nunez said in a statement.

Here Comes The Flood
There is another risk associated with hurricanes that could also explain the rising costs and number of claims. The storms themselves—not their windspeeds—have been moving slower than they did 70 years ago. With the collective pace of weather systems slowing down, the risk for flooding increases. Jim Kossin, a researcher at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), recently published findings and offered some theories to explain why storms and hurricanes are overstaying their welcome.

According to his recent report, A Global Slowdown of Tropical Cyclone Translation Speed:

One thing scientists do know is that the location where tropical cyclones reach maximum intensity has been shifting toward the poles. And, this may be related to or even causing the overall slowdown.

Using the ‘operational best-track’ data from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF), the 2017 mean-over-land Atlantic translation speed is 17.9 km h-1, which is at the slowest 20th percentile of over-land translation speeds for the period since 1949.

Some experts believe that global warming also contributes to the slower pace since it “weakens the summertime circulation of the atmosphere in the tropics.” Still, a stalled hurricane and ongoing precipitation may be too much for some infrastructures to handle, as was demonstrated in Houston last year.

Hindsight
The 2017 hurricane season was undoubtedly a wakeup call for the United States, as it saw 12 named storms causing 100 deaths—68 from Hurricane Harvey alone—and is considered the 17th deadliest hurricane season since 1990. With regard to economic impact, last year’s natural disasters between June 1 and Nov. 30 caused $200 billion in reported damages, making it the second-costliest season on record behind the 2005 season.

“Hurricane Harvey was a different beast—its movement stalled because of high pressure regions that essentially blocked its path. It’s not clear whether we’ll see that specific situation more commonly as the world warms,” an Ars Technica article noted. Other ways in which climate change contributed to Harvey’s impact—like warmer ocean water and warmer air holding more water vapor—are more obvious.

Risk Management Monitor reported that the majority of senior executives of large U.S. companies with operations in Texas, Florida or Puerto Rico admitted to being unprepared for the hurricanes that devastated their communities in 2017. According to a survey by FM Global, 64% of respondents said the hurricanes had an adverse impact on their operations, a full 62% said they were not entirely prepared.