Category Archives: Climate Change

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RIMS Risk Forum India 2019: Top Risks and a Special Edition Magazine

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rims risk forum india 2019

MUMBAI—”Why are we here?” asked RIMS CEO Mary Roth, welcoming over 100 risk professionals to the recent RIMS Risk Forum India 2019 in Mumbai. “If you look around this room, I think we all share very similar reasons. Risks are changing. Today’s risks seem more complex, and they hit our organizations faster. Think about our climate: heat waves, droughts, and other extreme weather events we’re experiencing. Data: it’s abundant and rich. Technology: it’s evolving overnight, and so are the related risks and opportunities.

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She added, “Expectations have never been greater for our organizations to quickly adapt and implement emerging technologies, address cyber exposures, brace for political change, and uphold ethical and social standards.”

The day’s sessions delved into critical issues like emerging technology, fraud, regulation, and building a risk culture, drawing upon expertise from panelists ranging from the C-suite to regulators themselves. Another key theme was clear to all in attendance: the rapidly shifting role of risk management in organizations across India, and the opportunities that new risks are presenting here.

top risks india 2019According to the new Marsh and RIMS “Excellence in Risk Management” report State of Risk Management in India 2019, which was unveiled at the forum, many of these issues dominate the risk landscape for organizations operating in the country. Indeed, cyberattacks, extreme weather, and data fraud or theft top the agenda for risk professionals in India this year.

Across 23 industries, a vast majority of senior risk professionals cited cyberrisk as their top concern, with 62% agreeing cyber poses the greatest risk to their organization—nearly four times the number who prioritized the runner up, weather events.

“India, like other countries, has been susceptible to malicious cyber attacks and there is growing awareness among corporates of the need to ensure they have appropriate cybersecurity controls,” said Sanjay Kedia, Country Head and CEO, Marsh India. “Firms need to keep up with the evolution of cyber threats if they are to capitalize on technology-based opportunities.

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This will require organizations to make additional investment to ensure they have adequate protection.

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As the profession matures and expands in the region, risk professionals looking to earn a seat at the table are focusing on their potential to serve as a key strategic partner driving these investments.

“Global business leaders who have engrained risk management into the fabric of the organization’s strategic planning processes have become better equipped to make informed, proactive, and rewarding decisions,” said RIMS CEO Mary Roth.

“India’s risk management community continues to demonstrate its strength, as well as its passion for developing advanced capabilities that support growth and innovation.”

risk management india special edition coverTo that end, these top issues are also covered in greater depth in a recent special issue of Risk Management curated specifically for risk professionals in India. Originally available exclusively for attendees of this year’s RIMS Risk Forum India, Risk Management Special Edition: India is now available for readers worldwide. Check it out today and, if you have any feedback, we would love your input to help inform future international coverage—email your thoughts to HTuttle@rims.org.

Venice Sees Near-Record Flooding

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The city of Venice, Italy, faced the worst flooding of its famous canals since the devastating floods of 1966. Venice has suffered major economic impact from this new round of flooding, with Mayor Luigi Brugnaro predicting that the damage will cost hundreds of millions of Euros, and claiming climate change is to blame.

The recent flooding paralyzed many local businesses, forcing schools to close and disrupting the city’s bustling tourist industry. When the salt water of the canal rises, it can destroy centuries-old architecture and wipe out entire inventories.

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And since insurers have refused to provide flood coverage to Venetian businesses due to the ever-present flooding threat, costs can surge even more.

After the 1966 floods, the city began planning a sea barrier to combat the increasing flooding, called the Mose Project, but it has largely languished since then, reportedly due to corruption and delays. The barrier consists of gates that rise with the tide to prevent flooding at different inlets of the Venetian Lagoon, the bay surrounding Venice. The project has been formally underway since 2003 and has cost billions of Euros so far, with its engineers now predicting the barrier will be in place by the end of 2021, while others say 2022.

As the floods have gotten worse, Venetians have taken to the streets to protest the city’s mismanagement of flood prevention and response measures, as well as tourist cruise ships that produce waves they allege have eroded the city’s foundations. Venice has also seen a slow trickle of people leaving the city, as the constant flood risk has made life and business operation untenable for many. According to NBC News, of about 53,000 residents in the city’s center, Venice lost over 800 residents last year alone.

As with many recent extreme weather events around the world, some experts believe the floods may be the result of climate change. Environmental economist Shouro Dasgupta told NBC News that the frequency and severity of the city’s floods have increased significantly. “Since 1951 until today, we have had 21 severe flooding events,” he said.

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“Out of those 21, 13 have been since 2000 and, out of those 13, eight have been since 2012.”

The Venice city council reportedly rejected measures to combat climate change minutes before floodwaters actually reached the council chambers. Pictures of the flooded government chambers posted by city councilor Andrea Zanoni went viral—an ironic symbol of official inaction in the face of climate change’s effects. Zanoni told CNN that the council rejected measures to fund renewable energy, to make city buses (currently running on diesel) “more efficient and less polluting,” and to address the local use of polluting stoves and plastics.

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The council’s president, Roberto Ciambetti, refuted the assertion that the city’s government was ignoring climate change, citing budget provisions dedicated to fighting air pollution and smog.

Venice Flooding

Last week, the United Nation’s Environment Program released a report stating that countries must increase their carbon-cutting measures dramatically to prevent warming of 3.2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The report noted that the many of the world’s 20 richest countries, which are responsible for 78% of global emissions, have not committed to reducing their emissions to zero. Italy is one of the few countries that have made this commitment, albeit as a long-term target.

National Flood Insurance Program Set to Expire

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As a tropical storm battered parts of Texas with more than 40 inches of rain in 72 hours last week, Congress is debating whether to extend the National Flood Insurance Program, which expires on September 30. The NFIP is a government-run flood insurance plan that covers 5 million policies and is an alternative to the relatively shallow private flood insurance market. Since the passage of the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, Congress has often waited until the last minute to reauthorized the program before its expiration and passed only short-term extensions (12 since 2017).

Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a continuing resolution to keep the federal government funded through November 21 and prevent a government shutdown. This measure included an extension for the NFIP through the same date. But it is unclear whether the Senate will pass the resolution or allow a shutdown.

The House of Representatives Financial Services Committee unanimously passed a bill titled the National Flood Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2019 (H.R. 3167), which would reauthorize the NFIP for five years and provide funding for flood mapping and flood mitigation programs. It would also mandate a number of reforms, including allowing policyholders to get refunds if they cancel their policy before its expiration date, eliminating penalties if insureds leave the NFIP for the private market, and requiring the NFIP to increase premium rates each year.

On the Senate side, there is a bill of the same name that would also extend the NFIP for five years. The bills would also cap annual rate increases at 9% (as opposed to the current law, which allows increases by up to 25% annually), making the program more affordable, especially for low-income policyholders. Additionally, it includes provisions to protect homebuyers and renters by mandating flood risk and prior flood damage disclosures, and also funds flood mapping modernization and mitigation. As of this writing, the Senate has not voted on the measure.

Climate change has exacerbated annual flooding across the United States, making storms more violent, frequent and costly. In its June report on the flood outlook for 2019, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration noted that non-storm, high-tide flooding “is increasingly common due to years of relative sea level increases. It no longer takes a storm or a hurricane to cause flooding in many coastal areas.” And in May, NASA said that the United States had experienced record-setting precipitation, characterizing it as the “soggiest 12 months in 124 years of modern record-keeping.”

They also mean millions more in property damage, which in turn means more people getting payouts from the NFIP. In fact, the series of hurricanes that hit the United States in 2017 and 2018 also hit the NFIP hard—the program lost billions of dollars in payouts, leading the government to pass a disaster relief bill that helped the NFIP pay the claims. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which runs the NFIP, aims to double the number of people who have flood insurance by 2023, but according to E&E News analysis, coverage in the United States has declined by 31% since 2011, leaving many without protection if they are hit with flooding.

In 2012, Congress passed a law allowing federal agencies to begin accepting private flood policies, but the market has been sluggish to fill the gaps. Some are stepping in—indeed, the American Association of Insurance Services (AAIS) today announced a partnership with Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. (Munch Re) to provide flood insurance aimed at homeowners outside major flood zones. But with few other private insurance companies offering flood policies, if the NFIP is not reauthorized, this could leave more than half-a-million people across the country without coverage.

Catastrophic Floods More Frequent in 2019

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Last week, after already experiencing heavy rainfalls and flooding, New Orleans was preparing for tropical storm Barry, expecting the storm to overflow or even breach the city’s levees. Flights in and out of the city were cancelled, as were concerts and other public events, as the city braced for catastrophe. Barry ended up narrowly missing New Orleans, and instead moved inland, drenching other parts of Louisiana and Mississippi and causing floods and mass power outages in those areas. It was yet another example of how major flooding has become a normal occurrence for many regions of the country, and by all indications, it is becoming worse each year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated in its report 2017 State of U.S. High Tide Flooding and 2018 Outlook that “The projected increase in high tide flooding in 2018 may be as much as 60 percent higher across U.S. coastlines as compared to typical flooding about 20 years ago and 100% higher than 30 years ago.” This prediction turned out to be accurate, as the United States saw massive flooding throughout 2018, including “sunny-day” or “high-tide” flooding that occurs during high tides outside of hurricane events.

In its recent report on 2018 high-tide flooding and 2019 outlook, the NOAA said that these floods’ median frequency in 2018 “reached 5 days, which tied the historical record of 2015.” Of the 98 observed locations along the U.S. coastline, 12 reportedly broke or tied their all-time records for high-tide flooding in 2018. And now, the NOAA is predicting that 2019 could be even worse.

The NOAA noted that high-tide flooding “is increasingly common due to years of relative sea level increases. It no longer takes a strong storm or a hurricane to cause flooding in many coastal areas.” The Union of Concerned Scientists has said that sea level rise is accelerating, that “sea levels in the U.S. are rising fastest along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico,” and that the primary reason for this sea level rise is climate change melting land ice and heating oceans.

According to the NOAA’s 2019 projections, it expects high-tide flooding along the U.S. coastlines this year to reach double the numbers from 2000. Additionally, “the Northeast Atlantic could see a 140% increase, the Southeast could see a 190% increase, and the Western Gulf of Mexico could see a 130% increase.”

Almost 40% of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas, and could be at risk from flooding effects. With the start of hurricane season, these dangers will only increase as storms batter the coasts. Even before Barry threatened, New Orleans faced massive flooding last week, while Pittsburgh contended with flash floods. And the week before, heavy rains left Washington, D.C. and surrounding towns swimming in water that overwhelmed the city’s storm water pipes.

These increasing floods mean serious losses for people, municipalities and businesses. The recent DC-area floods reportedly caused $3.5 million in damage to Arlington, Virginia county infrastructure alone. In March, a “bomb cyclone” hit Nebraska, with heavy rainfall causing damages totaling more than $1.3 billion. This figure includes $449 million in road, levee and other infrastructure damage, as well as serious damage to more than 2,000 homes and 340 businesses. Iowa also experienced flooding that caused water treatment plants to shut down, depriving two cities’ residents of fresh water. And across the Midwest, agriculture was also hit hard by flooding, slowing corn and soybean planting. The delay may decrease harvests by at least 8% and increase prices worldwide.

As Risk Management Monitor has previously reported, Texas A&M University at Galveston and the Texas General Land Office examined the 50-year impact of a major storm hitting Galveston Bay on the Texas coast near Houston, finding that major storm events that caused flooding would have huge secondary effects on the economy, both locally and nationally.

Various states, including those along the Mississippi River, have already enacted flood control measures like levees, dams and flood walls, but have seen this year’s increased flooding defeat these measures. Others have encouraged residents to purchase flood insurance to offset losses. But the increasing scope of future floods may mean that these steps are not enough. Though tropical storm Barry missed New Orleans, experts have still expressed concern about coming storms possibly “topping” the city’s levees, which could cause even more damage to the already-flooded city.