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Geoengineering the Climate

geoengineering

I was lucky enough to attend a lecture Friday afternoon at Columbia University on the topic of geoengineering. Speaking on the issue were Eli Kintisch, author of Hack the Planet — Science’s Best Hope — or Worst Nightmare — for Averting Climate Catastrophe and Scott Barrett, Lenfest-Earth Institute Professor of Natural Resource Economics, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University.

Geoengineering, if you are unaware, is the the term used to describe methods, or proposed methods, to deliberately alter the Earth’s climate to counteract the effect of global warming from greenhouse gas emissions.

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It has become a much-debated topic among scientists, environmentalists and politicians. The fact that 2009 marked the end of the warmest 10 years ever measured, only gives more credibility to global warming as a serious, worldwide problem. It also places a focus on geoengineering.

Eli Kintisch talked about the different types of potential geoengineering methods:

  1. Carbon removal: this method calls for the mixing of iron into the ocean to encourage algae growth. As algae blooms, dies or is eaten, it uses up carbon dioxide.
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  2. Air capture machines: just like the name says, these enormous machines would capture air inside cylinders lined with a special substance to absorb carbon dioxide.
  3. Aerosol spraying: this method entails the spraying of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere to reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the earth’s surface.

Of course, there are several risks that could arise from such scientific experiments. Kintisch touched on a few, including:

  • Side effects (potentially disastrous ones)
  • The difficulty of connecting experiments to effects
  • Assigning blame
  • Could alienate the public
  • Could lead to a ban

But, as Scott Barrett stated, “the whole point of geoengineering is to reduce risk, but these things we would also carry risk. We’re in a world, unfortunately, where there is always a risk/risk tradeoff.

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Barrett also stressed that the key issue in geoengineering is governance — the question of who gets to decide if and when geoengineering should be tried. Barrett also voiced his concerns over the lack of a geoengineering protocol, reiterating that, currently, there are no rules regarding any aspect of these potential experiments, or the idea of geoengineering in general.

Clearly, there is much to be done.

But if full-scale geoengineering is too drastic or unfeasible to pull off, there are some other tech-related solutions that could help mitigate some of the world’s more dire problems.

The Risks of Climate Change: Overcoming the Resistance to Discussing Adaptation

adaptation

The first event after the official launch of Climate Week NYC 2010 focused on adaptation. Sponsored jointly be Swiss Re and The Climate Group, “Risk & Resiliency: Risk Transfer & Adaptation in Developing Economies” discussed the once-taboo notion of preparing now to deal with the inevitable effects that climate change will have in the future — an outcome that will occur even if society was able to completely stop putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere tomorrow.

Here is how the event’s hosts framed it:

Reducing carbon emissions is essential, but alone it is insufficient to meet the challenges of climate change.The current and potential impacts of severe weather will force society to increase its resilience through both physical and financial means.
Developing countries face the greatest challenges with the least means at their disposal. Helping them to adapt involves far more than purely doing the right thing and will require a strategy driven by both business and political actions.

Reducing carbon emissions is essential, but alone it is insufficient to meet the challenges of climate change. The current and potential impacts of severe weather will force society to increase its resilience through both physical and financial means.

There was a lot of interesting thoughts and perspectives to come out of the panel — and I will get to some of those in a later post. But first, I want to address the notion that some people are still resistant to looking past mitigation (i.e., reducing CO2 emissions) and promote/fund adaptation efforts.

The reason the momentum towards adaptation initiatives (something the UN discusses often and Time magazine explained well in layman’s terms — way back in 2007) was formerly frowned upon by most environmentalists — and still is by some — is because it is paramount to acknowledging that, at least on some level, the fight is already lost. Many have wanted politicians, businesses, nonprofits, scientists, engineers and everyone else who could help to focus solely on preventing climate change — not living with it.

“Talking about adaptation was almost an admission of defeat,” said Mark Kenber, deputy CEO of The Climate Group, a UK nonprofit that focuses on combating climate change.

Even Kenber himself admitted that he was once resistant to embracing adaptation. He now fully realizes that both sides of the equation are equally vital, however. And while the issue is less polarizing than it was in the past, some remain entrenched on the mitigation side.

Most have “seen the light” on embracing adaptation as well, but, practically, this historic divide has created a world where numerous governments have different sections that deal with mitigation/emissions reduction and adaptation. “That separation has become institutionalized,” said Kenber. And that still complicates things.

Many projects financed for their ability to combat climate change, for instance, get looked at through different lenses by different groups with different motivations. Kenber has seen certain projects in the developing world in which one group looked at them as aiding adaptation, another saw them as mitigation efforts and still a third wanted to claim them as assisting development goals.

But given how much climate change concerns effect development in much of the emerging world, this “debate” is like looking at a project and seeing it as six of one, a half-dozen of the other. Ultimately, all parties have the same goal — even if they don’t know it. As Kenber pointed out , the cruel reality of this fractured outlook on mitigation and adaptation is that “the worse we do on the former, the more we need to succeed on the latter,” he says.

If this was just about semantics, it wouldn’t be significant.

But it is more than that. It is about money — lots of money.

The experts on the panel suggested that $400 billion is needed throughout the world for adaptation initiatives. During climate talks in Copenhagen in 2009, developed countries agreed to pool together some $30 billion to deal with climate change. Actual commitments beyond those that dovetailed with previous pledges have lagged, however.

This piece from Reuters breaks down the accounting.

Kenber said that, so far, $3.2 billion has actually been ponied up. That number is not the total that has been pledged with a “check’s in the mail” wink, but the actual committed funds. And of this, he says that barely $600 million is earmarked for adaptation efforts.

I’m not a mathematician, but $600 million seems a lot less than $400 billion.

So while it is nice that, rhetorically, many people now believe adaptation belongs alongside mitigation when talking about combating climate change, talk does little to build the dams and floodwalls that will be vital to the survival of the people in places like Pakistan and Bangladesh in the coming decades nor does it help provide the drought-resistant crops that will increasingly be needed if local agriculture is to continue being a viable means to feed people in places like Ethiopia and Malawai.

Mark Kenber Climate Group

Mark Kenber of The Climate Group discussing adaptation to climate change during Climate Week NYC 2010. (Photo: Swiss Re)

Countries Most Vulnerable to Economic Losses

Natural disasters in any form wreak havoc not only on the property and residents of the area affected, but also on its economic stability. Risk intelligence company Maplecroft set out to answer the question of which countries are most vulnerable to economic losses from natural disasters.

To answer this, they used their Natural Disasters Economic Loss Index (NDELI), which evaluates the economic impact of “earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, storms, flooding, drought, landslides, extreme temperatures and epidemics between 1980 and 2010.”

The results highlighted the top 10 most vulnerable countries as:

  1. Haiti
  2. Mozambique
  3. Honduras
  4. Vanuatu
  5. Zimbabwe
  6. El Salvador
  7. Nicaragua
  8. Sri Lanka
  9. Fiji
  10. Tajikistan

As for industrialized economies, Italy, Japan, China, USA, Spain and France all ranked in the “high risk” category.

“When economic losses are taken as absolute figures, it is predominantly the industrialised countries, such as USA and China, that shoulder the greatest costs,” explained Maplecroft Environmental Analyst, Dr Anna Moss.

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“However, when losses are calculated as a percentage of GDP, it is developing countries that are most exposed. For example, the USA’s losses from the 1997-1998 El Niño were US$ 1.

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96 billion, or 0.03 percent of GDP, whereas in Ecuador, economic losses were US$ 2.9 billion, or 14.6 percent of GDP.”

Maplecroft says that the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that struck Haiti in January cost the country close to $8 billion, or 73% of annual GDP. As for number two Mozambique, it’s the increasing amount of flooding over the last decade. The World Bank has reported that Mozambique is at “increasing risk from storm surges . . . due to climate change and estimates that 41% of the country’s coastal area and 52% of coastal GDP is vulnerable.”

Says Profesor Alyson Warhurst, CEO of Maplecroft:

“Climate change has the potential to raise global temperatures and affect weather patterns – the fear for insurers is that this will lead to more frequent and extreme hydro-meteorological related losses.”

If you add up the costs associated with the earthquakes in Haiti and Chile, plus this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, the cost of natural disasters to the insurance industry in 2010 could reach $110 billion worldwide, according to Swiss Re. A frightening figure to say the least.

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Sustainability — Managing a Major Business Risk

sustainability

True, businesses need to make money to stay afloat in the competitive business world. But in this modern marketplace, companies are increasingly focusing on remaining profitable while incorporating sustainability. With evidence that business activities are influencing climate change and companies are depleting the earth’s resources at an alarming rate, environmental risks have become business risks.

Marsh recently released a white paper entitled, “Sustainability – Managing Your Risk” that addresses the risks companies face in trying to manage one of the newest business risks. First, the report stresses companies to look for tangible evidence that their own suppliers have signed up to a sustainability code, saying that not only should your company become sustainable, but your company’s supply chain as well.

With legislation passing, companies are realizing their operations may not be considered environmentally friendly. As an example, the European Union enacted the Environmental Liability Directive, meaning that businesses must now ensure that they do not cause damage to water, land or biodiversity.

But many companies believe “going green” is more costly. Though that may be true in the near-term for some instances, the long-term return is proof that green is good.

“There is evidence that changing business practices to a more sustainable model can reap financial rewards. The Fairtrade movement is an example where consumers are willing to pay higher prices to be reassured about how the products have been produced.”

Among the sustainability issues for businesses and society is water (we ran an in-depth feature on this topic in the June 2009 issue). Water-intensive companies (think Coca-Cola, Nestle, Texas Instruments) are now assessing the risk they pose to the areas in which they operate. In fact, the Carbon Disclosure Project is now asking the world’s biggest companies for the first time to disclose how much water they use. And this is no tree-hugging initiative — major investors “with trillions of dollars in assets have backed this call for such information.”

In today’s business world, people’s view of a company is not based simply on what it does, but how the company does it. As Marsh says:

“With the increasing pressure on depleted natural resources and a greater level of scrutiny concerning environmental performance from policymakers and investors, it makes more sense than ever to fully understand the impact that a business is having on the environment and to make changes to business process that are seen to be having a deleterious effect on the environment and society.”

Lagging behind on the issue of sustainability within business operations will eventually mean lagging behind the competition.