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Time Line: A Dry, Hot Summer

The summer of 2012 has been one a farmer would love to forget and one that weathermen never will. Daily temperature records were regularly shattered throughout the United States and historic drought conditions, which remain ongoing in many areas, caused crop yields to suffer. By July 19, after weeks of “unrelenting heat and a lack of rain continued the downward spiral of drought conditions,” according to National Climate Data Scientist Richard Heim, nearly 64% of the nation had officially entered drought, the highest percentage since 1950s.

Worst of all, some fear that this is less of an anomaly and more a sign of what’s to come in a warmer future. If that is the case, farmers, states and the nation at large will have to find new ways to ensure expected results can still be met. Regardless, the summer of 2012 will be notable, either for its harsh conditions or as the first in a line or extreme summers.

So here, we look back at a memorable season.

June 23

Wildfires burned in many areas of the western United States this summer, but a blaze in Colorado set historic state records. At least six were killed and some 600 homes were destroyed by a wildfire that devastated the Waldo section of Colorado Springs. The property damage has been estimated north of $500 million, some $350 million of which is insured, but the human toll looms even larger. A local resident, C.J. Moore told NPR that the fire was so hot her driveway exploded and, in the blaze, she lost much more than possessions. “One of the things I thought about the other day was the flag that was over my late husband’s casket,” Moore told NPR. “And I’m going, ‘I can’t replace that.’ I mean, yeah, I can get another flag, but it wouldn’t have served the same purpose. And you [think about it], and then tears well up.”

June 28

As a relentless heat wave blankets much of the country, and cities throughout the United States set temperature records, the nation’s capital sets a historic mark. June 28 to July 8 marks an 11-day stretch of 95-degree-or-hotter days in Washington, D.C., breaking the previous record set in 1930. The 105 Fahrenheit reached on July 7th becomes the second-hottest day in the city’s history. (Chart above, and data, via the Washington Post.)

July 17

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that 38% of the U.S. corn crop is rated as poor to very poor. “That 38% represents the highest amount of U.S. corn rated poor to very poor since the end of the 1988 growing season,” said USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey. “We now see in 13 of the 18 major production states in the U.S., at least one quarter of the corn crop rated poor to very poor.” In Kentucky, Missouri and Indiana, more than 70% of the corn crop is rated as poor.

July 18

A Milliman report estimates that a dozen major corn and soybean-producing states could tally underwriting losses of $2.8 billion. The 12 states included were Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin, and Milliman notes that “other states, including Arkansas and many western states, are also experiencing an intense drought and could see high crop insurance indemnities as well.”

July 20

The U.S. drought monitor releases shocking findings: due to “unrelenting heat and lack of rain,” 63.5% of the United States is now officially suffering from drought. Mark Svoboda, climatologist for the U.S. drought monitor notes that the summer heat, on top of a dry winter and a warm spring, “Our soil moistures are depleted.”

July 25

In a summer full of them, the USDA extended yet another series of disaster proclamations for counties in several states, raising the number of counties where farmers were eligible for drought-related disaster assistance to 1,369. The department noted that this highlighted the need for Congressional action. “The urgency for Congress to pass a food, farm and jobs bill is greater than ever,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. “The hard-working Americans who produce our food and fiber, feed for livestock, and contribute to a home-grown energy policy—they need action now.” One week later, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack would report that more than 50% of the nation’s counties were officially designated disaster zones, including more than three-quarters of U.S. cattle acreage. “It’s the most severe and expensive drought in 25 years,” said USDA economist Timothy Park.

August 2

The House of Representatives passes a $383 million drought-assistance package for farmers and livestock producers. The short-term care package is generally seen as a reasonable relief effort but also highlights Congress’s failure to pass a long-term farm bill. “My priority remains to get a five-year farm bill on the books and put those policies in place,” said House Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank Lucas (R-OK) in a statement, “but the most pressing business before us is to provide disaster assistance to those producers impacted by the drought conditions who are currently exposed.”

August 5

Outspoken NASA climate scientist James Hansen writes a Washington Post op-ed proclaiming that extreme weather such as the ongoing drought and recurring heat waves this summer are the direct result of man-made climate change. “Our analysis shows that it is no longer enough to say that global warming will increase the likelihood of extreme weather and to repeat the caveat that no individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change,” wrote Hansen. “To the contrary, our analysis shows that, for the extreme hot weather of the recent past, there is virtually no explanation other than climate change.”

August 10

The National Crop Insurance Services, an industry trade group, reported that U.S. crop insurers had already paid out $822 million in indemnities so far this season.

August 13

The USDA updates its corn outlook to show that 51% of the corn in the 18 states that yield upwards of 90% of the U.S. crop yield are rated poor. 26% of that total is considered very poor. “This again shows that rains this week were too little, too late to stabilize the corn crop,” said DTN Analyst John Sanow.

Companies Release Climate Change Combat Guide

We’ve heard over and over again about how companies are not adequately preparing for the changing climate, but rarely do we see reports praising companies for being proactive in the face of increasingly severe weather events and rising temperatures.

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But that did happen recently with the issuance of a step-by-step tool for businesses to prepare for such risks. For the first time, leading companies from the food and beverage, insurance, investment, technology and energy industries are taking action with certain tools, one being Business ADAPT. The guide cites several recent weather events that have caused economic and social harm, including the 2010 heat wave in Russia, which triggered severe wildfires and shaved off 1% of the country’s GDP, and the 2011 Texas drought, which caused a loss of .

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6 billion within the agricultural sector.

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The tool is part of the Value Chain Climate Resilience Guide and states that companies should follow the below points:

  • Analyze the issues — Have you started thinking about the resilience of your business in the face of climate-related impacts?
  • Develop an internal strategy — Have you mobilized the right team to address climate resilience?
  • Assess risks and opportunities — Have you taken steps to assess the areas where opportunities to build climate resilience or invest in emerging market opportunities exist in your business value chain?
  • Prioritize actions — Have you taken steps to identify and assess measures to build climate resilience in your value chain?
  • Tackle actions, and evaluate progress — How will you successfully implement actions to build climate resilience in your value chain, and evaluate and monitor the effect of your actions over time?

Companies who fail to take preventative steps to address climate threats could find themselves facing extreme and unmanageable risks. As James E. Rogers, CEO of Duke Energy put it, “If we’re not ready, we’re in trouble.”

Wildfire Risk in the United States Will Rise Throughout the Next Century

Scientists from the University of California at Berkeley, and Texas Tech University expect more wildfires throughout North America and Europe by the end of the century as temperatures continue to rise across the globe. In summing up the results of their new study, which was conducted by using 16 different climate models (something they called “one of the most comprehensive projections to date of how climate change might affect global fire patterns”), one of the researchers was not necessarily surprised by the fact the threat is increasing. But he was surprised by how quickly it is increasing.

“In the long run, we found what most fear: increasing fire activity across large parts of the planet,” said study lead author Max Moritz.

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“But the speed and extent to which some of these changes may happen is surprising.
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This obviously means that regions that cities, states and nations that are already struggling to control the wildfires of today (for example, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA) need to figure out new ways to adapt to an even-riskier future. “We need to learn how to coexist with fire,” said Moritz.

And as with seemingly everything regarding climate change, it seems that the world’s poorest, most-vulnerable region’s will have the hardest time adapting.

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 “In Southeast Asia alone, there are millions of people that depend on forested ecosystems for their livelihoods,” said study co-author David Ganz.

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“Knowing how climate and fire interact are important factors that one needs to consider when managing landscapes to maintain these ecosystem goods and services.”

There is some good news, however. Equatorial regions may actually see fewer wildfires. This is due to projected increases in rainfall in those regions as the climate changes.

Other scientists who contributed to support the study include the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the U.S. Forest Service, the National Science Foundation and The Nature Conservancy.

IPCC Climate Change Report Highlights Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters

The above video highlights the challenges the world will face throughout the rest of the century. Extreme weather, agricultural disruptions and other crises are expected to proliferate as the decades go on and the fallout of rampant carbon dioxide emissions continue to exacerbate climat change.

A recent report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights some likely scenarios for the future. When it comes to discussing disasters, there is a variety of scientific consensus on different issues. Many believe, for example, that maximum hurricane wind strength will rise as global sea-surface temperates increase. But when it comes to various means to manage risks climate extremes and disasters, there is “high agreement” on which solutions will work. The following is a list of many ideas expressed in the report.

Multi-hazard risk management approaches provide opportunities to reduce complex and compound hazards (high agreement, robust evidence).
Considering multiple types of hazards reduces the likelihood that risk reduction efforts targeting one type of hazard will increase exposure and vulnerability to other hazards, in the present and future.

Opportunities exist to create synergies in international finance for disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change, but these have not yet been fully realized (high confidence).
International funding for disaster risk reduction remains relatively low as compared to the scale of spending on international humanitarian response. Technology transfer and cooperation to advance disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation are important. Coordination on technology transfer and cooperation between these two fields has been lacking, which has led to fragmented implementation.

Stronger efforts at the international level do not necessarily lead to substantive and rapid results at the
local level (high confidence).
There is room for improved integration across scales from international to local.

Integration of local knowledge with additional scientific and technical knowledge can improve disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation (high agreement, robust evidence).
Local populations document their experiences with the changing climate, particularly extreme weather events, in many different ways, and this self-generated knowledge can uncover existing capacity within the community and important current shortcomings. Local participation supports community-based adaptation to benefit management of disaster risk and climate extremes. However, improvements in the availability of human and financial capital and of disaster risk and climate information customized for local stakeholders can enhance community-based adaptation (medium agreement, medium evidence).

Appropriate and timely risk communication is critical for effective adaptation and disaster risk management (high confidence). Explicit characterization of uncertainty and complexity strengthens risk communication. Effective risk communication builds on exchanging, sharing, and integrating knowledge about climate-related risks among all stakeholder groups. Among individual stakeholders and groups, perceptions of risk are driven by psychological and cultural factors, values, and beliefs.

An iterative process of monitoring, research, evaluation, learning, and innovation can reduce disaster risk and promote adaptive management in the context of climate extremes (high agreement, robust evidence).
Adaptation efforts benefit from iterative risk management strategies because of the complexity, uncertainties, and long time frame associated with climate change (high confidence). Addressing knowledge gaps through enhanced observation and research can reduce uncertainty and help in designing effective adaptation and risk management strategies.