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Risk Managers’ Role in Addressing Climate Change

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QUEBEC CITY, CANADA—Salutations de la ville de Québec! At the first day of this year’s RIMS Canada Conference, climate change quickly emerged as one of the key challenges facing risk managers—and an area with tremendous potential for risk professionals to effect change.

Government clearly has a role to play, but the slower pace and greater number of obstacles they face lessen some of the possible impact. According to Tim East, director of risk management at the Walt Disney Company, that is where businesses come in. Every one of the Dow 30 companies has created environmental and sustainability initiatives, but only 12% of companies have a C-suite or other top-level executive charged with leading action on this front. The clear trend of embracing corporate responsibility stems from a moral obligation businesses all have, and corporations must take initiative in changing how people think, East said.

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Addressing sustainability and other climate change concerns cannot be done in a silo, and efforts must focus on building resilience in all of the assets a business has: facilities, systems and people.

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Risk managers should be taking a leadership role, using their perspective of corporate objectives and performance to help identify and execute the most impactful change.

Risk professionals can particularly help drive this objective to boost awareness within the organization and in the broader community, while also ensuring the business itself is performing in line with sustainability goals. “Risk managers can help become part of the solution by helping to close the gap between the desires and intentions of our organizations and the performance and impact they have,” East said. “This is part of our moral obligation to reduce our impact on the environment.”

Why should companies act? “Not just because it’s good business—although it is, and not just because it’s profitable—although I think it is, but because it’s the right thing to do in the world and for the communities they serve,” East said.

To maximize the impact of these initiatives, East urges risk managers to set and pursue to reduction targets, otherwise they stand little chance of truly achieving change.

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Then, he advises they commit to a process of assessing, identifying opportunities, and measuring impact annually.

On the organizational level, changing mindsets extends beyond having employees recycle or monitoring water use. Business continuity planning is a critical task at Disney, East said, and they were always good at crisis management, addressing urgent problems over the course of a couple of days. Now, however, they are devoting more focus to planning for longer events.

To that end, the company is working to delink events from their consequences—rather than focusing on discrete emergency situations, it is focusing on how the business will be impacted by the conditions that could stem from any of these specific scenarios, he explained.

Getting started and shifting to a long-term focus seem daunting, and the slow rate of observable change often means adaptation and mitigation are not top of mind for businesses, said Lou Gritzo, vice president of research at FM Global. But risk professionals cannot wait for the next disaster or policy change to prompt a more serious evaluation of exposure and strategy.

Getting started on—or further investing in—mitigation efforts may be best focused on one of the main changes we are already seeing: flooding. Existing data shows a clear increase in flooding, and due to sea level risk and increased rainfall and intensity of rainfall, there will only be more, Gritzo said. To manage this growing risk, he recommends risk managers take four key steps:

  1. Know your flood exposure
  2. Be above the water level, and ensure any new construction is as far above it as possible
  3. Have and exercise a plan for flood emergencies
  4. Keep water out – in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, a number of physical protection measures have been certified and made commercial available to guard against up to a meter of water

Hurricane Katrina Recovery By the Numbers

In anticipation of the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina next week, the Insurance Information Institute collated data on the range of damage it caused, including insurance claims by coverage and state, National Flood Insurance Program losses, and other sources of recovery funds. The costliest hurricane in U.S. history, Katrina killed 1,800 people and cost $125 billion in total economic losses. Such catastrophic losses do not just demonstrate the impact of megadisasters, however.

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As the III points out, while “awareness of flooding due to coastal storms rises, so too does the population of coastal communities.

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Check out the infographic below for a look at Hurricane Katrina’s total toll and key takeaways:

hurricane katrina damage infographic

Katrina’s Lessons in Windstorm Risk Management

Hurricane Katrina, which pummeled the Gulf Coast of the United States 10 years ago on Aug. 29, has proven to be the deadliest and costliest disaster on record. The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active in recorded history with more than 30 tropical and subtropical storms, including 15 hurricanes.

According to the study, Hurricane Katrina 10: Catastrophe Management and Global Windstorm Peril Review by Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, it was predicted that hurricanes would become more frequent and intense after 2005, however, “In reality, the exact opposite has occurred,” Andrew Higgins, technical manager, Americas at Allianz Risk Consulting explained in the report. Instead, there has been a reduction in Atlantic hurricane activity during the last 10 years, with 2013 seeing the fewest Atlantic basin hurricanes since 1983. “These results illustrate the fact that we do not fully understand the complex climate variables that affect hurricane activity,” he said.

Because Katrina’s impact was so devastating and widespread, many changes have since been made. New Orleans has built a new system of levees, for example. Flooding caused by Katrina revealed the state of the levee systems in the U.S. to be substandard and in need of repairs estimated at $100 billion,the National Committee on Levee Safety found. “There are many levee systems throughout the U.S. that would reveal similar deficiencies if subjected to the same level of scrutiny as those in New Orleans,” according to the study.

“Katrina will always be remembered as an extraordinary natural disaster that affected millions of individuals and businesses and left an indelible impact on the global insurance industry,” Hugh Burgess, head of corporate lines at AGCS, said in a statement. “Even without considering the influence of climate change, the prospect of increasing losses due to storms is more of a result of continued economic development in hazard-prone developed coastal areas. Preparedness limits windstorm exposure and Katrina has taught us many lessons on this front.”

Top lessons from Hurricane Katrina:

1. Storm surge impact and risk modeling

“Storm surge modeling prior to Katrina essentially assumed that the height of the storm surge was a function of the maximum sustained winds,” Higgins said. “Katrina clearly showed that there are other factors that affect storm surge height… We have learned that in addition to wind speed, the physical size of the hurricane can affect the storm surge. Camille’s hurricane-force winds extended 60 miles from the storm center, while Katrina’s extended 120 miles. The larger size of Katrina was a major factor in pushing more water onto the shore.”

2. Flooding threat

The flooding caused by Katrina showed that the conditions of the levee systems in the U.S. are very poor. “The 2013 Report Card for America’s infrastructure developed by the American Society of Civil Engineers rates the levees in the U.S. as a D-,” Higgins said.

3. Wind damage prevention

Substantial wind damage occurred to structures that experienced hurricane force winds from Katrina, despite the fact that the recorded wind speeds were less than the wind design speeds. So what happened? “Most of the wind damage occurred to the building envelope,” Higgins explained. “That includes the roof covering, walls and windows. If the building codes had been strictly followed, the wind damage would have been greatly reduced. Poor workmanship and a lack of knowledge were the primary culprits.” He added, “Today, the Gulf Coast is in a better position to withstand the effects of a hurricane due to better education, improved construction guidelines and increased third party inspection.”

4. The importance of business continuity

After widespread catastrophes businesses typically relocate, meaning the client base can diminish until recovery progresses. The key to recovery is to establish a plan in advance that identifies clear priorities for attention to crucial operations, so the business can get back up-and-running as quickly as possible.

5. Insurance coverage issues

While insurance claims settlement levels from Katrina were high, it’s imperative to know what’s protected ahead of time. Many insureds were surprised to find out they were not covered for storm surge losses, the main coverage issue resulting from the storm. Whether damage was caused by wind or water became a key focus of post-Katrina litigation.

6.  Unexpected impact of demand surge

Demand surge is a post-catastrophe complication which can have not only catastrophe-related consequences in terms of rising prices due to a shortage of available goods, but other loss consequences as well. For example, a shortage of American-made drywall because of the demands of rebuilding led to a significant increase in imports of defective drywall manufactured in China. This resulted in a number of environmental issues and eventual litigation, particularly in the storm-affected states of Florida and Louisiana.

Allianz concluded that businesses need to start early to prepare for the worst-case scenario. “Businesses need to be sure to have tested business continuity plans and especially communications cascades in place and have insurance policies at a safe location,” advised Andreas Shell, Head of short-tail claims at AGCS. “Creating a separate booking account to which businesses can record hurricane-related damages to easily identify the loss incurred can also help.”

Terry Campbell, regional claims head, Americas at AGCS noted that every company should take these steps to ensure the claims settlement process runs as smoothly as possible after a windstorm event: “Follow the protocol outlined in the catastrophe response plan. If there isn’t one in place, one should be immediately developed for that event. Ensure there is adequate staff to respond and that there is ongoing communication to include scheduled meetings to discuss progress as well as issues, problems etc. These can be done as frequently as necessary,” he said.

Analyzing the Real Costs of Climate Change

Are companies prepared for skyrocketing energy costs to combat extreme heat? Can farmers handle average crop losses of up to 73%? Should businesses invest in oceanfront property that is virtually guaranteed to flood? Because of climate change, these are just some of the crucial questions the United States will face before the end of the century, according to “Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States,” a report co-chaired by business experts Michael R. Bloomberg, Henry Paulson and Tom Steyer. The report quantifies and publicizes the economic risks posed by a changing climate. While climate change can be a politicized topic, there is little controversy that the phenomenon presents a great deal of risk to everyone, from individuals to institutions.

Decision-makers already use risk analysis to address uncertain situations, routinely evaluating potential threats and challenges such as bad investments or schedule delays. The report adds climate change to the risks that all decision-makers should account for. Robert E. Rubin, co-chair of the Council on Foreign Relations and member of the report’s risk committee, said, “Companies should disclose both their potential exposure to climate risk, and the potential costs they may someday be required to absorb to address carbon emissions.”

The report uses risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and models to illustrate how different regions are likely to be affected by climate change. The project’s simulation also analyzes efforts to mitigate climate change, showing a changed distribution of probabilities if those efforts are made in the coming years. “As there a very high number of permutations and combinations of weather events, it would be very difficult to analyze these meaningfully using an averaged or deterministic approach,” said Robert Kinghorn, associate director at the consulting firm KPMG Australia. “MCS overcomes this by allowing thousands of possible combinations of extreme weather events to be analyzed.”

MCS can illustrate the potential costs if no adaptation takes place, or if adaptation is employed. The “Risky Business” report demonstrates that ignoring climate change risks will lead to disaster, while taking steps now will have a big impact. Luckily we have tools to face these challenges.

Many forward-thinking business and communities have already applied MCS to climate change risk analysis. For example, AECOM, a professional technical and management support company, used MCS software and optimization techniques to evaluate the risk and costs of climate-change-related flooding of the Narrabeen Lagoon near Sydney, Australia.

AECOM was asked by the Australian Federal Government to conduct an economic analysis of climate change impacts on infrastructure. When the Narrabeen lagoon’s entrance is blocked, it can fill like a bathtub, flooding the surrounding land and houses.

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The community can tackle this problem in various ways—such as a lagoon entrance opening, levee construction, flood awareness and planning controls. Because climate change is expected to increase flooding in the Narrabeen catchment over the coming century, decision-makers needed a clearer understanding of the different possible adaptation measures.

“The objective of the study was to use an economic cost-benefit analysis to identify both what measures government should invest in to prevent the impacts from flood events and when they should invest,” said Kinghorn, who, along with his KPMG colleague Lisa Crowley, developed, designed and ran the project as previous employees of AECOM.

Kinghorn and Crowley estimated the social benefits of adaptation to climate change in terms of willingness to pay, rather than just costs avoided. Using MCS, they generated more realistic probabilities of overall costs and benefits, and modeling the expected future values of variables such as rainfall.

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As the report states, even modest global emission reductions can avoid up to 80% of projected economic costs resulting from increased heat-related mortality and energy demand. While many companies may be resistant to change, the report makes an undeniable case; we cannot afford to ignore the momentous climate risks that threaten our near- and long-term future. “Responding to climate change is no longer a problem without a solution, said Crowley.

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 “It is not a question of do I need to respond, but how do I respond. An effective response to climate change is possible. The complex set of climate change data can be processed through a cost benefit analysis using MCS, producing a set of economic indicators to inform a more meaningful decision-making process on how and when to respond.”