Category Archives: Cat Models

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Groundbreaking Flood Models for Latin America

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Willis Re has introduced long-awaited flood models for Latin America through their research arm Willis Research Network (WRN). The models focused on large event scenarios for key cities such as Sao Paulo, Santiago and Bogota.

“The flood models provide South American insurance and reinsurance firms, as well as local governmental organizations, with new information that helps to identify and manage their exposure to flash floods caused by heavy rains and riverine overflow. Related results will be available for individual companies as well as the market as a whole and will have implications on planning, reinsurance and risk mitigation.”

The news was presented during the Geneva Association‘s 2nd Climate Change and Insurance meeting held in Sao Paulo last month by Dr. Juan Enlgand of Willis Re, who stated that these models might be used to consider the potential impact of climate change.

These models are greatly needed to say the least. Last year, floods and mudslides in Brazil caused 44 deaths and an estimated $1 billion in damages. In April, more than 250 died in Rio de Janeiro after torrential rains caused massive flooding and landslides. In June, more flooding in Brazil killed at least 41 and left more than 120,000 homeless. As Margo Black, CEO of Willis Re Brazil commented:

“Urban flood risk is an acute concern for Latin American re/insurers who have been challenged by growing losses and the lack of models to guide risk management.”

With Willis Re’s new models, it is hoped that future losses from almost-certain floods will be lessened in the ever-growing, major cities of South America.

Aon Unveils Five Earthquake Hotspots

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Aon has listed five earthquake hotspots around the world, following the launch of its report, “When the Earth Moves: Mega-Earthquakes to Come?” Aon lists the five hotspots as:

Caribbean (Lesser Antilles) – The 2cm a year rate of plate convergence is enough to produce a mega-earthquake of Mw 9.0 once every 3000 years. A major loss in the Caribbean would quickly use up available reinsurance capacity.

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Chile – As the only segment of the Chile-Peru Subduction Zone not to have ruptured within the last 100 years, the north Chile segment is now considered to be a region at high risk from an earthquake similar in size to the 2010 event. Following this year’s earthquake in Maule, reinsurance programs are now renewing with increases of 75% or more.

Indonesia (Sumatra) – Padang is now regarded as being at high risk from a mega-earthquake comparable to that which occurred in 1797, with a magnitude of 8.5 or more. A mega-earthquake would undoubtedly increase the price of reinsurance following a sizeable insured loss.

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Japan – The South Japan Subduction Zone (Nankai Trough) has a complex pattern of three segments. The largest earthquakes rupturing along the whole subduction zone may have magnitudes up to 8.6. A mega-earthquake in this region would most likely be a market-moving event.

North America (Cascadia) – The last mega-earthquake on this subduction zone occurred 300 years ago. While the short to medium term probability of a mega-earthquake may be low, insurers should not disregard the associated risks to the cities along the coast.

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After the devastation in Chile and Haiti this year, predictions like these are a valuable resource. As John Moore, head of international analytics at Aon Benfield said:

“Predicting the location of the next mega-earthquake is an inexact science but by examining the fault lines and historical precedence of earthquake activity in five of the world’s most vulnerable regions, this report sets out to assess the current risk and improve our understanding of where and when the next mega-earthquake could hit.”

Understanding when and where the next catastrophe could take place is the ultimate form of risk management.

The Insurance Industry and Climate Change

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This morning, AIR Worldwide, in collaboration with the the U.

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K. Met Office and the Association of British Insurers (ABI), released their findings on the financial implications of climate change to the insurance industry.

The report, “Financial Risks of Climate Change,” focuses on insured risks in both the U.K and China from dominant natural hazards in those areas, including inland flooding, winter windstorms and typhoons.

Results from the study include:

  • The average annual insured inland flood losses in Great Britain could rise by 14 percent assuming a global temperature rise of 4°C (39 degrees Fahrenheit). Within Great Britain, the results vary by region (increases range from less than 10 percent to nearly 30 percent).
  • The insured inland flood loss in Great Britain occurring on average once every 100 years could rise by 30 percent. The insured inland flood loss occurring on average once every 200 years could rise by 32 percent.
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    In both cases, the estimates assume a global temperature rise of 4°C.

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  • The average annual insured losses from typhoons affecting China could increase by 32 percent; the 100-year loss could increase by 9 percent, and the 200-year loss could increase by 17 percent. In all cases, the estimates assume a global temperature rise of 4°C.The average annual insured inland flood losses in Great Britain could rise by 14 percent assuming a global temperature rise of 4°C. Within Great Britain, the results vary by region (increases range from less than 10 percent to nearly 30 percent).

“The earth’s climate system is constantly changing,” said Dr. Peter Dailey, assistant vice president and director of atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide. “Not only does a change to any component of the system influence the risk from natural catastrophes, but the interactions between components bring about an inherent uncertainty surrounding how climate will evolve in the future. By conditioning our models on future climate scenarios developed by leading climate researchers at the Met Office, the study we have conducted on behalf of the ABI advances our understanding of the relationship between these complex climate relationships and insured risk.”

The research brings together unique climate model projections with state-of-the-art catastrophe models. And as we’ve recently seen with Typhoon Ketsana, which demolished parts of China, the Philippines, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos and killed almost 700 and caused more than $1 billion in damage — research in this area is greatly needed. Nothing can stop Mother Nature, but cat models can help prepare for her wrath.
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