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A Trump Presidency Poses Top Risk to Global Economy

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, a Donald Trump presidency poses one of the greatest current global risks. Indeed, Trump ranks as the sixth overall potential risk to the global economy, and based on a 25-point scale, the research firm rated the risk approximately equal to the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizing the global economy.

The EIU, research and analysis sister company to the Economist, ranks risks based on both impact and probability, with a Trump presidency presenting considerable potential impact, but moderate probability. The EIU’s assessment focused in particular on Trump’s hostility toward free trade (most notably NAFTA), aggressive rhetoric on China, and “exceptionally right-wing stance” on the Middle East and jihadi terrorism.

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“In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war—and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016,” EIU analysts wrote. “His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the U.S.) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.”

The firm concluded with a prediction that, while it believes Trump will most likely lose to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, that probability could change in the event of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil or a sudden economic downturn.

In such a scenario, the trickle-down effect within the American political machine poses noteworthy risk as well.

“Innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr. Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress,” the report says.

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But “such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.”

The firm’s overall top 10 risks by point ranking are:

economist intelligence unit top global economy risks

Brussels Bombings Highlight New Risk Realities

Belgium map
The deadly terrorist bombings in Brussels this week have elicited an outpouring of support for the victims and for Belgium, along with renewed rage and consternation regarding ISIS. These are predictable reactions.

What these acts also elicited, I’ve noticed, are numerous comments from many outlets that the attacks were not surprising.

The BBC, in fact, said the bombings were “not a surprise” and security experts chimed in with similar assessments. Even Belgians themselves admit that the attack wasn’t shocking—Prime Minister, Charles Michel, lamented that “what we feared, has happened.” Think about how much has changed in less than a generation. Now, when the capital of the EU and NATO becomes a war zone, many react as though this is business as usual.

When it comes to political violence and warfare, we (or at least Western Europe) are living in a brave new world.

In fact, research I’ve conducted in recent weeks for a RIMS Executive Report on political risk confirms how much the paradigm has changed. Political risk experts I interviewed have been emphasizing this point. “I think it is truly a distinctive point in world affairs,” said one. Another confessed, “I’ve been doing this for nearly 20 years, and this is by far the most unstable, tenuous, deteriorating…risk environment I’ve ever seen.”

These sentiments are based on more than ISIS. Recent developments include the Ukraine civil war, the migrant crisis, deterioration of large swaths of the Middle East, tensions in the South China Sea, a weakening Chinese economy and Brazil’s political crisis. All contribute to a consensus that things are changing.

For the risk community, a big change is formerly reliable standards of which parts of the world are stable and which are unstable, such as developed economies versus developing and first-world versus second- and third-world. Now more than ever, risk managers considering the security of global operations need to examine a country’s vital signs rather than rely on conventional wisdom about stability. And if mass-casualty terror attacks are the new normal for Western Europe, a number of risk professionals will need to become better acquainted with the realities of political violence.

To end on a positive note, however, we do not have to believe the sky is falling. While terrorist attacks are brutal and unfortunate, it is consoling to think about the odds of being a victim. As data nerds are happy to point out, a person is much more likely to meet his or her demise from bathtubs, dogs and food poisoning. The Post has reported that you are more likely to be crushed by furniture than snuffed out by ISIS.

NFL Admits Game’s Link to Concussion Risk

football

After years of denying that the game of football could have caused degenerative brain disease in some players, the National Football League has finally admitted there is a link connecting the game to chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). According to the New York Times:

Representative Jan Schakowsky, Democrat of Illinois, asked during a round-table discussion about concussions whether “there is a link between football and degenerative brain disorders like CTE,”

Jeff Miller, the NFL’s senior vice president for health and safety policy, said, “The answer to that is certainly, yes.” His response signaled a stunning about-face for the league, which has been accused by former players and independent experts of hiding the dangers of head injuries for decades.

Miller’s comments were backed the next day by league spokesperson Brian McCarthy. Miller’s answer may actually help the NFL, as “It could make it harder in the future for a player to accuse the league of concealing the dangers of the sport,” the Times said.

“Strategically, the NFL’s admission makes a world of sense,” Jeffrey A. Standen, dean of the Chase College of Law at Northern Kentucky University, told the Times. “The league has paid a settlement to close all the claims previous to 2015. For future sufferers, the NFL has now effectively put them on notice that their decision to play professional football comes with the acknowledged risk of degenerative brain disease.”

While CTE has been found in former players, the NFL has for decades denied the danger, even after researchers with Boston University announced in 2014 that, in autopsies of 79 brains of former NFL players, 76 tested positive for CTE. A report in 2003 by the Center for the Study of Retired Athletes at the University of North Carolina found a connection between concussions and depression among former professional football players.

According to a 2007 UNC study, Recurrent Concussion and Risk of Depression in Retired Professional Football Players:

Our observed threefold prevalence ratio for retired players with three or more concussions is daunting, given that depression is typically characterized by sadness, loss of interest in activities, decreased energy, and loss of confidence and self-esteem. These findings call into question how effectively retired professional football players with a history of three or more concussions are able to meet the mental and physical demands of life after playing professional football.

The NFL has directed millions of dollars to research of CTE and head trauma and it gave $45 million to USA Football to promote safe tackling and reassure parents that football’s risks can be mitigated through on-field techniques and awareness, the Times said.

Why You Need a Vendor Management Policy Right Now

In recent years, more and more cybersecurity incidents have taken place as a result of insecure third-party vendors, business associates and contractors. For example, the repercussions of the notorious Target breach from a vulnerable HVAC vendor continue to plague the company today. With sensitive data, trade secrets and intellectual property at risk, hackers can easily leverage a third party’s direct access into a company’s network to break in.

While such incidents may cause significant financial and reputational harm to the first-party business, there is hope.

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Regulators are instating a growing number of legal requirements that an organization must meet with respect to third-party vendor riskcybersecurity management. As liability and regulations take shape, it is important to assess whether your company currently employs a vendor risk management policy, and, if not, understand how a lack of due diligence poses significant risk on your organization’s overall cybersecurity preparedness.

A vendor management policy is put in place so an organization can tier its vendors based on risk. A policy like this identifies which vendors put the organization most at risk and then expresses which controls the company will implement to lessen this risk. These controls might include rewriting all contracts to ensure vendors meet a certain level of security or implementing an annual inspection.

All this probably sounds pretty good, but you may still be wondering why you really need a vendor management policy—and why it’s urgent.

Here are four explanations to give you a better idea:

  1. Legal Liability

There are a growing number of legal requirements in a variety of sectors—from finance, to retail, to health care, to energy—on how companies should manage their third-party risk. Regulators have recognized that data breaches through third parties can present significant and sometimes catastrophic consequences to an organization. To deal with this risk, they have created various legal requirements in an effort to have organizations manage their third-party cyber risks more carefully. If you are in a regulated industry and do not currently have a vendor management policy, you could be out of compliance (and in a lot of trouble).

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  1. Well-Known Risks

An organization should be concerned about third parties that have either access to their most sensitive data or direct access into their corporate network. So if you work with a lot of third parties, you are naturally creating more targets that hackers and criminals can exploit. This is becoming more common, as organizations are outsourcing to vendors more frequently in an effort to either save costs or capitalize on vendor expertise. While that is all well and good, the more vendors you have, the larger risk landscape you create. This is a well-known risk—but all too many companies don’t give it enough thought.

  1. Unknown Risks

Not all risks are easily understandable. Many organizations today have entered into business relationships with third parties, not fully understanding the risk to their data. What’s more, the first party may not have set requirements for how their vendors should secure their data.

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A number of organizations struggle to even know who has access to their sensitive data, how much access they have, where it resides, and more. These unknowns give plenty of companies a valid reason for concern.

  1. Significant Consequences

To see how very real the consequences of not managing vendor policy are, simply read some of the latest cybersecurity headlines. An example that demonstrates the significant impact of a third-party breach is the recent Experian breach, which exposed the personally identifiable information of over 15 million consumers. In this case, Experian was holding loads of sensitive T-Mobile customer data, which hackers were able to access. The T-Mobile CEO John Legere expressed how furious he was at Experian for being the source of this compromise. Nothing has been stated yet, but we’re certain that this business partnership will be reevaluated after this experience.

The truth is that if you don’t have a vendor management policy in place today, your company is falling behind the times. Unfortunately, not having such a policy in place also means there is a good chance that your organization’s sensitive data is being handled by someone who shouldn’t have access to it. This puts the health of your entire company on the line.