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Preparing for the Next Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic at RIMS Content Roundtable

In last week’s “RIMS Content Roundtable: COVID-19 Vaccines and Distribution,” a group of RIMS members gathered for an exclusive Q&A with Dr. Adrian Hyzler, chief medical officer at Healix International, who focused on progress with COVID-19 vaccination efforts and moving toward a “next phase” of the pandemic.

“Where we’re headed is: this pandemic will end—all pandemics end—but it doesn’t end all of a sudden, it goes out with a whimper…it sort of just seeps away at different rates around the world,” Hyzler said, noting the rates of vaccination and controls implemented country by country will curb the coronavirus at different paces. “But it’s now going to be an endemic disease, meaning it’s something we live with. We’re not going to get rid of this disease.”

He believes recognition among public health experts that COVID-19 will become endemic rather than be eradicated prompts new conversations about expectations and preparations around the world.

“The new dialogue is: what is the acceptable level of COVID and what is the acceptable level of deaths from COVID? Because COVID is a respiratory disease and people die of respiratory diseases every year, especially in winter. That’s something we live with,” Hyzler said. “We’re going to have to get to a point where there are going to be people who die from COVID every year, but they’re not going to overrun hospitals, and they’re not going to affect care of other diseases.”

Getting to the stage of “a disease we live with” requires mass vaccination, and he stressed the importance of the widespread effort to encourage people to get COVID vaccines as soon as possible. Scientists are not yet sure what percentage of the population will need to be fully vaccinated to control the pandemic sufficiently and, he said, “that’s vaccinated across the whole population evenly, and that’s not the case—we know there are communities where they are vaccine-hesitant, we know there are religious groups that are not as confident about the vaccine, and they tend to cluster, so those are always ready for outbreaks.”

Rather than discuss the sometimes controversial or scientifically debatable concept of “herd immunity,” Hyzler encouraged thinking about “community immunity.”

“‘Community immunity’ is good because it’s more about what we can do for each other,” he explained. “Getting vaccinated, for a 28-year-old, is not necessarily about that person, it’s about what it can do for the community—the older people, the people who have preexisting conditions that make them vulnerable.”

This kind of community orientation and widespread adherence to best practices will be critical in getting to any next phase of the pandemic, and to staying there. Reflecting on his experience of the acute lockdowns implemented in the U.K., for example, Hyzler stressed the lessons learned about the impact of mass adherence to mitigation and prevention measures. “Even with the variant that’s come out here that is very transmissible and has become common in the States, we’ve shown that non-pharmaceutical interventions—which are masks, distancing, isolation, hygiene—they work,” he said.

Many of these non-pharmaceutical interventions will not be going away any time soon—indeed, they may be just as critical moving forward. Hyzler predicted, “I think, into next year, we may still be wearing masks in many situations and there may be a great move to more things outdoors, since we know how much safer that is, and I think we’ll have learned a lot of things from this… Hopefully we’ll also be more ready for something that will happen again.”

As the world moves toward mass vaccination to help curb COVID-19, companies should be preparing for the next stage of the pandemic and creating detailed plans for safely returning to work. To that end, Hyzler noted some large private companies have publicly offered resources to help other enterprises protect employees and operations amid the pandemic and prepare for a return to workplaces.

For example, Ford has published two versions of a “Return to Work Playbook,” one for manufacturing and another for non-manufacturing companies. According to Ford, in addition to providing these documents to employees, “the company is also providing a copy to its suppliers, business partners and relevant third parties to ensure they are all aware of its health and safety practices when they are on site at Ford facilities or are interacting with Ford personnel.” Companies outside of Ford’s supply chain can also benefit, however.

“Add in some CDC advice, and look at what people [around you] are doing, because there are little things you can do that are very specific to your area or your workforce,” Hyzler recommended. “Then, take the information [from the playbook] that’s useful and mold it into a mini version of a playbook, if you’re a smaller company.”

In addition to the Ford playbooks Hyzler mentioned, check out these publicly available resources from the private and public sectors that may offer help in managing COVID-19 risks and creating a return-to-work plan for your enterprise:

Ford’s Return to Work Manufacturing Playbook [PDF]
Ford’s Return to Work Non-Manufacturing Playbook [PDF]
IBM’s Return to Workplace Playbook [PDF]
Kaiser Permanente’s COVID-19 Return to Work Playbook
CDC’s Guidance for Businesses and Employers Responding to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
CDC’s “Daily Activities” Guide for Returning to Work
OSHA’s Protecting Workers: Guidance on Mitigating and Preventing the Spread of COVID-19 in the Workplace

Participants in the roundtable event were able to debrief with fellow risk professionals in breakout rooms, sharing impressions from the session and experience addressing related risks within their own organizations. For more opportunities to discuss return-to-work plans, vaccine considerations and other COVID-related risks with other risk professionals, all RIMS members can continue the conversation on Opis, the society’s community engagement and networking platform. Among almost 200 education sessions, the upcoming RIMS Live 2021 virtual conference will also offer dozens of COVID-related education and networking events from April 19 to 30, and registration is now open. To hear more insights directly from Dr. Hyzler, you can check out his appearances on the RIMScast podcast.

Human Trafficking and Supply Chains: Q&A with Tim Nelson of the Slave-Free Alliance

The International Labour Organization estimates that 25 million people are subject to human trafficking around the world, with children comprising one of every four victims. In many cases, the victims are used and transported by their traffickers in supply chains. 

Tim Nelson is the international development director for Hope For Justice, an anti-trafficking organization that aims to end modern slavery. He also holds the same title at the Slave-Free Alliance, an affiliated group that collaborates with businesses to assess and prevent the risk of human trafficking in their supply chains. Nelson recently appeared on RIMScast to discuss the how human trafficking has evolved into a major supply chain risk and how employers and employees can identify signs of this abuse.

Check out some highlights below, and to take a free deep-dive with Nelson and learn how to take action to prevent human trafficking in your company and community, download RIMScast episode 120.

For more information on steps businesses should take to help identify and combat modern slavery on their premises, you can also check out the Risk Management feature article “Human Trafficking: How Businesses Can Combat the Modern Slavery Epidemic.”

What inspired the creation of the Slave-Free Alliance?

Tim Nelson: We primarily started in the U.K., and formed because of the Modern Slavery Act, which requires companies with £36 million (about $50 million) or more in their annual revenue to state their efforts to remove slavery from their supply chain. Consequently, we tend to work with businesses above that £36 million level and we try and effectively help them honor their commitment.

We also work alongside federal or local police and alongside other NGOs and effectively try and be a trusted friend. Many people, because of the countries that they come from or what they’ve been told, are suspicious of police or are worried about corruption. We can be there to build that bridge of trust.

How can someone identify trafficking and modern slavery?

TN: Traffickers are those individuals who would use other people to generate profit for themselves and are looking for every opportunity. Global estimates indicate that there’s $150 billion made from this illegal activity. And therefore, the traffickers have thought it through. 

One of the complexities in identifying it is that human trafficking is hidden in plain sight. The common form that most people are aware of is sexual exploitation. But ultimately, traffickers [also] realized that they could traffic individuals to work in the supply chains of businesses, making components, working in manufacturing, working in agriculture.

Could you provide an example of how traffickers permeate supply chains?

TN: Last year there was a case where 400 victims were identified as being slaves within the primary supply chain of some of the major supermarkets within the U.K. And, like we said earlier, it was in plain sight—no one could see how this was happening.

This particular occurrence happened because the traffickers had gotten control of a recruitment company and they were able to bring individuals from a non-English-speaking nation to the U.K. Those individuals were given jobs, but the traffickers had control of their bank accounts. They were forcing these 30-plus individuals to live in a three-bedroom property. Many of them were washing themselves in a local river—not having running water was a sign that this is not how people should be living in 2020. 

National Slavery & Human Trafficking Prevention Month is held annually in January to educate about the different forms of human trafficking. What can risk professionals do to ensure the awareness continues all year?

TN: I would encourage all businesses to realize that they’ve got the power to change this so easily if they start to engage and put in different processes and systems. And part of what we’re trying to do is not to just encourage individuals or companies to stop buying goods from a particular company. If you just stop dealing with a company because you suspect there’s modern day slavery or trafficking happening, that company will close and another one will open like a phoenix. Companies can also sometimes be complicit just by not even looking or allowing enough due diligence to show that they are slave-free within the supply chain.

Is there a bottom-line impact as well?

TN: What we are seeing now is, internationally, inaction can be a major risk to your business. I can think of companies where issues around slavery were brought to the fore and share prices dropped by half as institutional investors pulled out. This is a key ESG issue, which makes it a C-suite-level risk in many cases.

What should companies expect when they engage with the Slave-Free Alliance?

TN: The first thing that we would do is conduct a gap analysis. This is not just looking at where you’re getting supply from—it’s to try and identify the weaknesses that may be in your supply chain. And that gap analysis forms something almost like a risk register.

Every company is different. I spoke to a Fortune 100 company last month that didn’t even have a procurement division. And that’s what I would have assumed every major multinational had. But every company has a different approach to it.

Quite often, a lot of people find that the even the thought of how big their supply chain creates a massive complexity because there might be just three people running the procurement department.

When we see something that would sit within the risks that we identify, then we work with the companies to diminish that risk. It could be an [unannounced] site assessment or working with those people who are going in and auditing the factories themselves.

For more information about how your business can combat and identify modern slavery, visit the Slave-Free Alliance and Hope For Justice. You can report suspected activity in the U.S. to the National Human Trafficking Hotline and internationally to the International Labour Organization.

How to Prepare Now for Your Next Crisis Post-COVID

As business leaders remain hyper-focused on navigating through the pandemic, few have sufficiently considered how to prepare for the next major crisis. There are many steps leaders can take, some of which include reassessing their risk management plans, constructing cohesive frameworks that proactively identify potential gaps, and identifying protocols and procedures to fill those gaps in preparation for future crises, no matter how big or small. 

Reflect and Optimize

Very often, companies have not taken the time to assess how they responded to previous crises because they are either too busy afterwards, or too happy to have survived with minimal consequences. But the pandemic has shown that this is a dangerous game to play. While we have seen that most organizations had some of the core elements of crisis management success—whether a crisis management plan and team, mass notification technology, risk and intel monitoring capabilities, or business continuity plans and teams—many had (and still have) not connected these parts into a successful framework. Moreover, they have not reflected on those plans to improve them and optimize their crisis and risk management approaches.

Businesses must evaluate their preparedness for and response to past crises and use lessons learned in those reviews to optimize their responses moving forward. Given COVID-19’s unexpectedly “long tail,” companies should review and reflect on their plans now, rather than wait months or years.

Create or Enhance Your Plan

While enhancing an old crisis plan or developing a new one will take work (and cost money) upfront, it is a process that will pay massive dividends in the long run. Once businesses have a concrete crisis management plan in place, have practiced the plan, and are prepared, the cost will realize itself both in terms of the monetary outlay and by mitigating potential risks that could prove highly detrimental to the business down the line. While different companies take varied approaches to crisis management planning, certain plan elements have proven their value during COVID-19 and likely will again during future crises. This is demonstrated in “the 3 S’s”: scenario analysis, stakeholder analysis, and standing media agenda.

  • Scenario analysis: Scenario analysis encourages companies to focus on the best, worst, and most-likely case scenarios when confronting a crisis and planning for various organizational responses. At the beginning of COVID-19, many companies saw the crisis as a “China problem,” and did not actively prepare for its potential global impact. Preparing in this way would have enabled them to have a broader, more proactive approach to crisis management, rather than getting caught in constant response mode, as many companies were. 
  • Stakeholder analysis: In times of crisis, businesses must quickly identify the key internal and external players that will be impacted and require critical attention. The companies that do so will be able to quickly identify their specific needs and/or interests and build their crisis responses around them. Not doing so often results in disorganized management of key stakeholders, exacerbating the impact of the crisis and/or causing additional work for the crisis team.  
  • Standing meeting agenda: Standing meeting agendas are crucial for helping to keep meetings on track, ensure discussions are impact-based and holistic, and guarantee key facets of the response are consistently revisited until resolved. Organizations that do not utilize standing meeting agendas often find their meetings to be frustrating, disorganized, and never-ending as conversations go around in circles.

Practice Responding to Crises

It would be easy to believe that you do not need to practice your crisis responses and exercise your plans after navigating a massive crisis like COVID-19, but that would be a mistake. Every crisis has its own unique characteristics, impacts, and challenges, and crisis exercising has proven to be one of the most effective means of preparing organizations and their leaders for navigating the next crisis or managing multiple, smaller crises at once. Just as with physical exercise, crisis exercising keeps organizations nimble and helps develop organizational muscle memory to ensure businesses and leaders are prepared for a real crisis.  

Do Not Forget Travel 

While most business leaders are thinking about bringing people back to the office, few have considered that many, ironically, are going to be looking for opportunities to leave it again—getting back on the road and visiting suppliers, customers, etc. So it would be short sighted for companies to only focus on policies and procedures around returning to the office, when they should start thinking about policies around returning to travel too. This will bring exponentially more challenging situations given the lack of consistency and (likely) inequity of vaccine distributions across the world, especially in developing nations where many employees may be traveling. Business leaders should be thinking about this now and planning for how to enable and support employee travel when it is safe to do so.

Take Risk Management and Monitoring Seriously

Risk management programs can no longer be developed with a “check-the-box” approach. As COVID-19 proves, high impact-low probability events are not only possible but probable, and so companies must take risk management and monitoring seriously. During this time, companies have started to build information and intelligence monitoring capabilities to help them digest the large volume and varied kinds of information they are receiving. This has included agreeing on scenarios and triggers that, when met, result in particular organizational action (e.g., reopening the office when case counts are at a certain level or enough people have received the vaccine). The last thing companies should do is stop monitoring when it seems as though the pandemic or any other crisis seems to be slowing or ending. In fact, organizations should not only maintain this monitoring but expand it to include other risk types identified during the crisis that could create another significant disruption down the line. This will allow the organization’s leaders to make data-based, proactive decisions rather than waiting until a crisis happens.

Crisis and business continuity planning has never been more important. The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically shifted the way businesses operate and has created new problems that business leaders must solve. To effectively plan for the next crisis, leaders must prioritize these capabilities, creating a holistic framework that addresses various types of threats. Taking these steps now will better prepare organizations for the next major crisis, however unlikely and no matter the scope and scale.

Strengthening Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Efforts

Improving diversity, equity and inclusion in the workplace seemingly remains an elusive goal for many companies. This persists even as many business leaders have stepped up to demonstrate that they value diversity and inclusion by making public commitments and dedicating time and money to training and development for their teams.

Society has a legal and moral obligation to extend equal opportunity to all people—regardless of gender, gender presentation, sexuality, sexual orientation, skin color, social class, religion and age, among other factors. But there is also a strict business dollars-and-cents reason for doing so: judging people on their talents and their potential, regardless of any of the factors above, means that you are getting the best people available. Discriminatory hiring practices simply dilute the talent pool.

A diverse workforce also brings a range of viewpoints and perspectives to a company. If employees feel safe to bring their authentic selves to work, they will feel empowered to help develop new ideas, products and missions to support the business and cater to its customers. Medium’s HR Blog and Resources published an article showing that diverse companies have increased revenue, more innovation, improved decision making, higher rates of job acceptance and better performance compared to competitors.  

Additionally, a 2018 analysis by McKinsey painted an even clearer picture:

  • Companies in the top 25th percentile for gender diversity on their executive teams were 21% more likely to experience above-average profits.
  • Companies with more culturally and ethnically diverse teams were 33% more likely to see better-than-average profits.

While most leadership teams believe that it is important to prioritize diversity and inclusion, they may also think it is something that will just fall into place. In reality, it will only succeed if it is deliberate—companies must plan for it, buy into it and incentivize it. It is also easy for businesses to believe they are doing a good job promoting inclusion and unwittingly stumble. Unconscious bias is real, and even people with the best of intentions can be guilty of microaggressions and other offenses against underrepresented groups.

Organizations seeking to embrace inclusion need to do so from the very top, and the practices, language, norms and processes that support these inclusionary goals need to move directly and effectively down the organizational chart. Something along the lines of superficial copy written in a policy memo will not do. Too often those kinds of actions are taken to “tick a box” without ever moving the needle. Company leadership needs to clearly set the tone and be certain managers and supervisors are not only onboard, but executing these missions on a regular basis. As with any for-profit project, achieving diversity is a goal that requires a comprehensive plan identifying the deficiencies and setting goals and a timeline to correct them.

Ensuring that promotions and new hires reflect diversity are obvious goals, but how does a company achieve them if it does not recognize that groups are still underrepresented in its workforce despite following what it believes are anti-discriminatory practices? A few years ago, a Silicon Valley startup called GapJumpers developed a platform to allow companies to hold blind auditions for openings in lieu of the traditional application and resume review process. They developed this process from an initiative that many of the world’s classical music orchestras undertook in the 1970s to try to diversify groups of predominantly white male musicians. The results were eye-opening: 60% of the applicants that made it through the selection process for interviews were from underrepresented groups. This approach may be out-of-the-box thinking for many organizations, but the fact that many companies are still struggling to achieve their diversity goals indicates that this is the time to throw out the old playbook.

Goals need to be set high enough so they are challenging while remaining realistic considering the company’s size and turnover rate. Achieving diversity is not a quick, one-size-fits-all fix and it is not going to happen overnight. However, as with many goals worth achieving, mindfulness, perseverance and commitment can prevail.