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Harvey Losses Could Reach $90 Billion

With weeks to go before floodwaters recede in some parts of Texas, Hurricane Harvey—which delivered more than three feet of rain in areas of Houston—has so far caused at least 38 deaths and numerous injuries. Harvey was downgraded to a storm Wednesday night, but tens of thousands of people are still in shelters, some of which are also flooded, fearful of what they will find when they return to their homes.

“Hurricane Harvey has already broken all U.S. records for tropical cyclone-driven extreme rainfall, with observed cumulative amounts of 51 inches,” Michael Young, RMS head of Americas climate risk modeling said in a statement.

Joel N. Myers, founder, president and chairman of AccuWeather declared Hurricane Harvey to be, “The costliest and worst natural disaster in American history. AccuWeather has raised its estimate of the impact to the nation’s gross national product to $190 billion or a full one percent, which exceeds totals of economic impact of Katrina and Sandy combined.”

Damage assessments are climbing, with modeling and analytics firm RMS now estimating that losses incurred by wind, storm surge and inland flooding could be as high as $70 billion-$90 billion. The majority of losses are coming from inland flooding in the Houston metropolitan area, where more than seven million properties top $1.5 trillion in value. RMS said the estimate includes damage to all residential, commercial, industrial and automotive risks in the area, as well as possible inflation from an area-wide demand surge.

According to RMS:

Most losses will be uninsured, given that private flood insurance is limited. However, although the insured losses will remain uncertain for some time they will be significant, as private coverage is not consistent: there are significant variations in how coverage is provided by individual insurers.

Coverage for some of the residential losses has been provided by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). There are approximately 500,000 NFIP policies that will be affected by Harvey, and the losses to the program will be very significant – potentially the largest event to date. However, NFIP penetration rates are as low as 20% in the Houston area, and thus most of the losses will be uninsured. This will rekindle the public policy debate around this issue.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott estimated that more than $125 billion in federal funding will be required to help the state recover from Hurricane Harvey, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Adding to the area’s woes were two explosions at the Arkema Inc. chemical plant in Crosby, Texas, 20 miles northeast of Houston early on Thursday.

The plant, which produces organic peroxides used in products like kitchen counter tops, polystyrene cups and plates, industrial paints and PVC pipes., was without electric service since Sunday and lost refrigeration when backup generators were flooded. Because the products need to be kept cold to prevent a chemical reaction, workers had moved them from warehouses into diesel-powered refrigerated containers, but those were also flooded.

A sheriff’s deputy was taken to a hospital after inhaling fumes, according to Reuters.

Residents in a 1.5-mile radius of the Arkema plant were evacuated on Tuesday, and water levels there make it too dangerous for workers to assess the situation from the ground, officials added.

Arkema urged people to stay away as the fire burns out. Black smoke was billowing from the site, Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez said at a televised news briefing.

The Federal Aviation Administration said Wednesday it had temporarily barred flights from the area because of the risk of fire or explosion.

Hurricane Harvey Hits Texas with Up to $30 Billion in Damages

Hurricane Harvey, which made landfall in Texas on Friday night as a Category 4 hurricane, has so far caused at least five deaths and more than a dozen injuries. Now a tropical storm, Harvey has dumped more than 30 inches of rain on the Houston area, with another 15 to 20 inches anticipated by Friday.

According to the New York Times:

  • With record floodwaters devastating much of southeast Texas, more than 450,000 people are likely to seek federal aid in recovering from Harvey, the storm that has battered the Gulf Coast for days, Brock Long, the director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said on Monday. The agency has estimated that about 30,000 people will seek emergency shelter, and that federal aid will be needed for years.
  • The Houston region now looks like an inland sea dotted by islands, with floodwaters inundating roads, vehicles, and even bridges and buildings. Thousands of people have been rescued from flooded homes and cars and many more are stuck in homes that remained above water but are cut off.

Bloomberg reports that damage from Harvey is expected to reach as much as $30 billion when factoring in the impact of flooding on the region’s labor force, power grid, transportation and other aspects supporting the energy sector.

Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide estimates that industry insured losses resulting from Hurricane Harvey’s winds and storm surge in Texas will range from $1.2 billion to $2.3 billion. AIR noted that these estimates do not include the impact of the ongoing torrential rain and catastrophic flooding from the hurricane unprecedented precipitation.

Hurricane Katrina, which struck New Orleans in 2005, caused about $160 billion in total economic damages, with about 47% covered by the insurance industry.

The Wall Street Journal said that despite the high damage anticipated, the timing is good for insurers and their customers:

Personal and commercial insurers have record levels of capital, the money they have on hand that isn’t required to back obligations. With insurers’ overall strong capital position, Harvey is unlikely to cause extensive damage to the industry’s financial strength, although it could hurt quarterly earnings for those carriers with blocks of business in hard-hit areas.

According to the Wall Street Journal, analysts estimate it would take $100 billion or more of losses in a 12-month period to cause distress within the insurance industry. The Insurance Information Institute reported that insurers had $709 billion in surplus during the first quarter of this year, which translates to $1 in surplus for every 75 cents of net premiums.

Although 52% of residential and commercial properties in the Houston metro are at “High” or “Moderate” risk of flooding, they are not in Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA) identified by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), according to CoreLogic. Properties within SFHA zones, categorized as Extreme or Very High Risk, require flood insurance if the property has a federally insured mortgage. Properties outside SFHA zones are not required to carry flood insurance.

Levels of flood risk for properties in seven metro areas likely to have severe rain and flooding as a result of Hurricane Harvey:

A factor in insurance costs, according to AIR Worldwide, is that more than half of the commercial buildings in both Texas and Louisiana are steel and concrete. Unlike residential structures, commercial buildings are often built to stricter standards, making them less vulnerable than single-family homes. More than 40% of buildings in the U.S. Gulf Coast region meet Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) standards set in 1980, AIR said.

RIMS Survey Reveals Continued Confidence in Cyber Insurance

Cyber insurance is still a priority for risk professionals and stand-alone policies continue to gain international prominence, according to the 2017 RIMS Cyber Survey.

The survey’s 288 respondents represented industries ranging from financial services, government and non-profit and manufacturing to retail, health care and more.

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Based on survey insights it is clear that cyber exposure is a primary concern, with nearly half of respondents confirming they are spending more now than they did last year to protect against it. The most alarming elements of risk continue to include business interruption and its consequent expenses, reputational harm, and notification and response costs. In light of recent ransomware attacks, 72% indicated that cyber extortion is also an important and growing first-party exposure their organizations are facing—a 9% increase from 2016.
Key findings from this year’s RIMS Cyber Survey include:

  • Organizations with a stand-alone cyber insurance policy increased 3% (to 83%) from 2016.
  • Of the organizations without a stand-alone cyber policy, 84% indicated that other insurance policies include cyber liability coverage.
  • Nearly three-quarters (72%) of respondents transfer cyber exposures to a third-party (up 3% from 2016).
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  • Only 34% of respondents thought that the government should mandate cybersecurity standards.

With 61% of respondents considering purchasing cyber coverage in the next two years, it is likely the industry will continue to see slow-but-steady growth.

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But with 83% of respondents reporting that their companies have stand-alone cyber insurance policies, up 3% from 2016, the survey suggests that the market for these policies may be nearing maturity.

“At any given moment, cyber predators can unleash a new hack to infiltrate an organization’s system, steal or lock critical data and cause significant business interruption damages,” said RIMS President Nowell Seaman. “RIMS Cyber Survey shows that risk professionals continue to invest in cyber insurance products and must work in tandem with their insurers and IT professionals to help develop innovative and adaptable solutions for the next generation of cyber threats.”

Manufacturers Vulnerable to Cyberrisk

Manufacturing companies face a serious threat from cyber criminals. According to IBM’s latest intelligence index, theirs is now the second-most targeted sector, after attack numbers increased significantly year-on-year. This heightened risk is compounded by increased vulnerability: the connectivity that manufacturers have embraced to bring about greater operational efficiencies is accompanied by significant and largely uninsured exposures, such as physical damage arising from cyber incidents or loss of income due to stolen intellectual property.

Part of the vulnerability lies in process control and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. Previously deemed impenetrable, due to their proprietary and highly customised networks, the convergence of these industrial control systems with enterprise infrastructure, particularly web services and ethernets, has created a potentially catastrophic risk. Such connections and the increasing Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) can drive through great advantages, but also simultaneously produce weak links that manufacturers can not afford to overlook.

For example, expensive capital assets such as production machines will be retrofitted with technology that allows them to be connected to corporate networks. But they were typically built without the sophisticated measures to afford cyber-protection, or have operating systems that are incompatible with current cyber-security products. All these factors make manufacturers’ industrial control systems particularly vulnerable to cyber-attack.

Physical damage
Physical damage arising from cyberattacks has to date been relatively rare. Early high-profile events, such as claims that Russians hacked into U.S. water treatment facilities to damage pumps, or the Israeli-U.S. ‘Stuxnet’ attack on Iran’s nuclear centrifuges were believed to be state-sponsored.

One of the most underestimated threats to manufacturers is the rogue employee, disillusioned with their employer or falling victim to blackmail. One such attack involved a German steel mill.

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Hackers, thought to involve a rogue employee, took over its industrial control systems via its enterprise system, preventing employees from shutting down a blast furnace. This caused irreparable damage to expensive equipment and yet physical damage, as well as bodily injury caused by a cyber event, is typically excluded on most policies. The rise of the hackers-for-hire phenomenon further multiplies potential sources of attack, with competing companies looking to use third parties for corporate espionage, for example.

Stolen Innovation
Other rising areas of threat revolve around the significant non-physical assets residing in manufacturers’ information systems. Cyber theft of intellectual property (IP) has been difficult to insure properly, despite the extraordinary value of items such as the technical specifications of a new product, or the composition of a new pharmaceutical. PwC reports that the number of such thefts, notably of product designs, has doubled.

While competition is a big driver of IP cyber theft, risks such as the loss of income due to stolen IP or the legal pursuit of it are not currently insurable. When you consider the degree to which a manufacturer’s value will be directly linked to their IP, this represents a considerable risk but also one where evidencing and quantifying a loss is very difficult.

Cyber attacks are now identified as the leading cause of supply chain stoppages but supply chain risk is also largely uninsured.

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Some losses, like business interruption arising from a cyber incident on an IT provider’s network, can sometimes be covered but an interruption caused by a product supplier’s cyber-event typically cannot. Upstream supply risk, associated with liabilities arising from failure to supply goods following an attack, is also difficult to insure.

Market developments
According to research by consultancy BDO USA, 92% of manufacturers cited cyber-security among their top 10 risk concerns in 2016, up 44% from 2013. Another study, however, found only 8% of manufacturers “very confident” in their ability to prevent an IT breach.

This rising risk issue demands action from all parties.

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Manufacturers must invest further in heightened security and control for their operating technologies, while cyber insurance specialists must continue to develop further sophisticated solutions to more effectively transfer manufacturers’ unique exposures. Insurance carriers are starting to work together more effectively across lines to more sufficiently underwrite the complex cyber risks facing the sector. Failure to respond to this new era of cyber threats and vulnerabilities will leave manufacturers exposed to reputation and physical damage, bodily injury, severe business interruption, loss of intellectual property, and significant financial loss.