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Cape Town’s Water Shortage Approaching ‘Day Zero’

Risk Management magazine recently covered the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 2018 Global Risks Report, in which environmental and technological risks dominate the worldwide threat landscape. The WEF ranked water crises as the fifth-highest risk based on impact, downgraded from the number one spot in 2015. But a diminishing water supply is certainly the top priority in Cape Town, South Africa, which is counting down to an increasingly imminent “Day Zero,” when it will effectively become the first major city to run dry.

In preparation for “Day Zero,” which is predicted to occur on July 9 (although it has been rescheduled several times), officials advised Cape Town’s 4 million residents to limit water use to 50 liters (13.

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2 gallons) per person per day, hoping to stretch the supply as far possible. Here’s how the Day Zero date has been calculated:

While assessing its own water supply risks, the Philly Voice equated that amount of water to “…a 90-second shower, two brushings of the teeth, one toilet flush, one cooked meal, a sink-full to wash dishes and a half-gallon of drinking water.”

Cape Town also has tariffs to help finance water and sanitation services and drive down demand of this basic human need. Nevertheless, the dams that supply most of the city’s water are only at 25% capacity as water usage reportedly remains well above targets. Once the dams reach 13.5% capacity, Cape Town intends to shut off the municipal water supply to all but essential services (like hospitals). Residents will then be allowed a daily 25-liter (6.6 gallon) water ration that they must collect from one of 200 water stations, which will be overseen by armed guards.

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Researchers from Stellenbosch University, located in the Western Cape province of South Africa provided a thorough evaluation of the preparedness plan’s feasibility, particularly during the post-Day Zero period. Taking a risk management approach of assuming no additional supply until the next rainy season, they called for strategies that either double the number of distribution points or increase the number of taps and water pressure at each of the 200 points:

“But even these strategies won’t help if Cape Town doesn’t address the reality of conflict and related delays. These are unpredictable and incalculable. They are also the greatest indication for why Day Zero should be avoided at all costs.”

As Risk Management Monitor reported in 2016, “the world’s largest underground water reserves in Africa, Eurasia and the Americas are under stress, with many of them being drawn down at unsustainable rates. Nearly two billion people rely on groundwater that is considered under threat.”

Water Foundry Founder and CEO Will Sarni recently offered a six-step strategy that other cities can take to avoid future Day Zeroes; the plan calls for the combined efforts of private sector leaders and public sector authorities:

“In building a solution, we call for a greater role for market forces balanced with regulatory oversight. In particular, the private sector has an essential role to play in devising technology and infrastructure solutions.

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But we have to incentivize companies to develop these solutions and then reward those that succeed. We applaud the initiatives of companies such as Coca-Cola Peninsula BeveragesABInBev and others, but we need much more.”

The BBC has listed 11 other major international cities that may be faced with a similar water supply crisis.

TSA’s Anti-Terror Trackers Tested at Penn Station

The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) had a presence in New York’s Penn Station this week, as it partnered with Amtrak to test new security technology that can help prevent and detect risks of terrorism and violence.

The TSA set up a passive system known as a stand-off explosive detection unit at the Amtrak concourse to identify individuals carrying/wearing a person-borne improvised explosive device (PBIED), such as a suicide bomb or vest. Such a vest was worn by terror suspect Akayed Ullah, when he attempted to blow himself up in a tunnel connected to the Port Authority in Midtown Manhattan last December.

The system will be tested at Penn Station through the end of this week and operated by Amtrak police officers. TSA spokesperson Lisa Farbstein said that local enforcement agents can be trained on the technology and laptop in one day and that local police would establish protocol if a weapon were to be detected.

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According to TSA information, the unit’s main feature is a screening technology that can be used by Amtrak and mass transit agencies to detect potential threats—metallic or non-metallic—by identifying objects that block the naturally-occurring emissions emitted by a person’s body.

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The unit does not emit any radiation and no anatomical details of a person are displayed.

The use of the detection technology enables a rail or transit agency to help safeguard against terrorist threats in a mass transit environment.

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The TSA is supplying two models of the equipment for the purposes of the demonstration. One model is mounted on a tripod, the other is contained in a trunk.

The equipment is mobile, which allows agencies to easily relocate it to different stations. Users operate it via a laptop computer in the station. The image that appears on the laptop reveals concealed objects that block the body emissions and indicate the location and size of those objects on a green image of an individual.

Penn Station was the most recent stop in the new technology’s national testing tour. In December 2017, the scanners were used in the Los Angeles 7th Street metro station where more than 86,000 people pass through each weekday; one month earlier they were used by Amtrak in Washington, D.C. They were also used in Secaucus, New Jersey in 2014 as riders made their way to MetLife Stadium for Super Bowl XLVIII.

Amtrak Positive About Meeting PTC Deadline

Earlier this month, Amtrak President Richard Anderson told the House railroads subcommittee that his company is on target to complete installation of positive train control (PTC) on the infrastructure it controls and on all of its equipment by the Dec. 31, 2018 federal deadline. He warned, however, that trains without PTC by the deadline could not use Amtrak’s tracks.

“We believe that PTC should ultimately be in place for all Amtrak routes and, as a matter of U.S. policy, PTC should be required for all passenger rail trips in America,” Anderson told the House Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines and Hazardous Materials.

PTC is designed to eliminate human error by using four components: GPS satellite data, onboard locomotive equipment, the dispatching office and wayside interface units. The system communicates with the train’s onboard computer, allowing it to audibly warn the engineer and display the train’s safe braking distance based on its speed, length, width and weight, as well as the grade and curvature of the track, according to railroad operator Metrolink.

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If the engineer does not respond to the warning, the onboard computer will activate the brakes and safely stop the train.

Anderson’s testimony poses a challenge for major transportation providers like NJ Transit, whose trains run on the Northeast Corridor east of the Hudson River tunnels to New York City. Committee members have noted that NJ Transit “hasn’t even started” the process of installing PTC, while the company’s spokeswoman maintains that despite delays attributed to software compatibility, she believes they can meet the deadline. According to a Federal Railroad Administration progress report, 8% of NJ Transit’s locomotives and none of its tracks were updated with PTC as of the end of 2017.

After Congress passed the PTC Enforcement and Implementation Act of 2015 it also authorized the FAST Act, which allocated $199 million in PTC grant funding and specifically prioritized PTC installation projects for Railroad Rehabilitation and Improvement Financing funding. The Association of American Railroads estimates that freight railroads will spend $10.6 billion implementing PTC, with additional hundreds of millions each year to maintain. The American Public Transportation Association has estimated that the commuter and passenger railroads will have to spend nearly .

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6 billion on PTC.

“Without PTC, the system is too vulnerable to single points of failure, many of which are dependent upon the memory of a single human being interacting with a big, complicated system,” Anderson said. “When an engineer loses situational awareness or forgets a rule, we have no systems to assist them and help them prevent that error.”

He also noted that Amtrak is taking additional steps, such as installing inward-facing cameras. “These cameras monitor locomotive and engineer performance and are installed in Amtrak trains along routes in the northeast, midwest, and west and we are actively working to install them on Amtrak trains nationwide. Reviewing the data from these cameras, coupled with the data from our efficiency testing programs, provides us an excellent view of operational issues to be addressed in future training programs.”

Efforts to upgrade train technology has been a nationwide priority. The most recent major derailment occurred on Dec. 18, 2017 when an Amtrak train derailed near Tacoma, Washington, killing three passengers and injuring about 100. That crash was the result of excessive speed in a steep curve, which experts suggested could have been prevented with PTC’s automatic braking technology. Amtrak Train No. 501, on its inaugural run, was traveling 80 miles per hour in an area limited to 30 miles per hour when it derailed on an overpass, sending the train’s 12 coaches and one of its two engines careening onto the highway below.

As previously reported in Risk Managementa similar derailment in Philadelphia in May 2015 that killed eight, was also blamed on excessive speed and could have been avoided if PTC had been in place.

Companies Continue to Grapple with Cyberrisk, Study Finds

As technology becomes more critical to company success, the number of cyberattacks has climbed.

As a result, cyberrisk has become one of the top risks for companies around the world, according to the Marsh-Microsoft Global Cyber Risk Perception Survey. Almost two-thirds of survey respondents identified cyberrisk as one of their organization’s top-five risk management priorities—almost double the percentage who rated cyber as a top risk in a 2016 study, Marsh said, adding that respondents whose organizations had been successfully attacked were slightly more likely to prioritize cyberrisk than those who had not.

Despite these concerns, however, the study notes that just one in five respondents said they are “highly confident in their organization’s ability to manage and mitigate cyberrisk or respond and recover from an attack.” This was especially the case among corporate directors, who play an important role in protecting their organization from cyber threats. While about 70% of respondents who identified as board members said they ranked cyberrisk as a top-five concern, only 14% said they were “highly confident” in their organization’s ability to respond to an attack.

Board Disconnect
While organizations have traditionally relied on IT staff to manage cyberrisks, the structure of oversight is evolving in many companies as risks accelerate. Stakeholders from across the enterprise are looking beyond prevention to include risk assessment, mitigation and cyber resilience.

Asked about cybersecurity structure, however, 70% of respondents named their IT department as a primary owner and decision-maker of the risk.

This was more often true for smaller companies, as larger organizations tended to spread the responsibility for cyberrisk—from a low of 13% in the smallest organizations (many of which may not have a separate risk management function) to 58% in the largest organizations with more than $5 billion in revenue, the study found.

Ideally, boards should view cyberrisk management as part of their overall perspective on enterprise risk management. In organizations where the board is involved, however, the study found a disconnect:

Corporate directors often appear to either not understand the information on cyberrisk they receive, or to not be receiving it all. For example, 53% of chief information security officers, 47% of chief risk officers, and 38% of chief technology/information officers said they provide reports to board members on cyber investment initiatives. Yet only 18% of board members said they receive such information.

This information gap illustrates a need to develop cyberrisk economic/business models that facilitate shared dialogue including common language among IT, the board, and other corporate departments.

This disconnect also reinforces the need for a cross-functional approach to cyber risk governance, according to the study.