Author Archives: Justin Smulison

About Justin Smulison

Justin Smulison is the business content manager at RIMS and the host of RIMScast, the society's weekly podcast.
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Safety Groups Warn of Added Summer Risks

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Summer has arrived, but it is not a time for total relaxation. According to the National Safety Council (NSC), July and August typically see more accidental deaths than any other two-month period—a trend that includes drowning, pediatric vehicular heatstroke, pedestrian deaths, natural disasters and gun-related fatalities.

To stress the need for extra caution, the NSC has updated its Injury Facts interactive online database. This year marks the first time the NSC has categorized “hot car deaths” – which it recognizes as an emerging risk.

“Unfortunately, when we look at accidental deaths, summer is not the carefree period we’d like it to be,” NSC Manager of Statistics Ken Kolosh said. “The numbers underscore the need for public awareness. We hope Injury Facts can help people understand the biggest risks to their safety and take the steps needed to ensure no one gets hurt.”

With Independence Day arriving next Wednesday, more workers are expected to travel and take time off from their jobs. With an increase of people on the road and in pools and oceans, for example, more people are at risk of injury or death.
The NSC information released earlier this week dovetails with the end of National Safety Month. Facts and trends include:

  • Pedestrian fatalities. Pedestrian deaths start to increase in late summer and continue a steady increase through the end of the year. Since 2009, pedestrian deaths have risen sharply, totaling 7,330 in 2016 compared to 4,109 in 2009. For the first time, Injury Facts shows where pedestrian fatalities tend to occur, outdoor lighting conditions at the time of the death and the day of the week the incident occurred.
  • Drownings. Swimming, playing in the water or falling in the water claimed 656 lives in July alone in 2016, a 108% increase over the yearly average and their highest level that year. In total, 3,786 people died in 2016 from drowning. Injury Facts now breaks down all preventable deaths by month so people understand the biggest risks facing them throughout the calendar year.

When chronicling drunk driving incidents, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) is pointing out the deadliness of the four-day period between July 2 and July 6. Over the 2016 Fourth of July holiday:

  • 188 people were killed in crashes involving at least one driver or motorcycle operator with a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of .08 or higher.  (A 28% increase from 2015, which had 146 fatalities).
  • Nearly half of those who died were in a vehicle crash involving at least one driver or motorcycle operator with a BAC of .15 or higher—almost twice the legal limit.

Even if you’re off the road and hosting a company party or celebrating in a backyard, there are risks all around. The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) warns that there are more fires reported on the Fourth of July than any other day of the year, nearly half of which are caused by fireworks. With extreme drought plaguing the western states, fireworks, outdoor grilling areas, and campfires require extra caution. The NFPA said that July is the peak month for grilling fires, with gas leaks cited as the leading cause.

And while looking to the sky for a fireworks show is always fun, the aforementioned groups recommend attending displays put on by professionals only and avoiding consumer fireworks. According to the Consumer Product Safety Commission’s (CPSC) 2017 Fireworks Annual Report, fireworks were involved in an estimated 11,100 injuries treated in U.S. hospital emergency departments in 2016.

“Preventable injuries are the third leading cause of death for the first time in United States history,” NSC President and CEO Debbie Hersman recently told Risk Management Monitor. “Sadly, our national opioid epidemic and the sudden recent increase in motor vehicle deaths have propelled preventable injuries past chronic lower respiratory disease and stroke in terms of how many lives are lost each year. Every single unintentional injury could have been prevented.”

Despite A ‘Near-Average’ Forecast, Hurricane Flooding May Increase

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With so many businesses and individuals affected by Hurricanes including Maria, Harvey and Irma in 2017, risk managers and insurers are looking to revised forecasts of this year’s hurricane season for a glimmer of hope that 2018 will not bring the same destruction. They may have found it in new information released by Colorado State University, which indicates that a near-average season is likely. It predicts 14 named storms between now and Nov. 30, of which six would become hurricanes. But the caveat is that one immense storm during a “near-average” season can still wreak havoc on businesses and homes.
The criteria is heavily based on the number of hurricanes and not their economic impact. Look to other years with similar buzzword descriptors to determine if its impact is included in your organization’s systematic risk.

“The years 1960, 1967 and 2006 had near-average Atlantic hurricane activity, while 1996 and 2011 were both above-normal hurricane seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.

Most of those years endured damage caused by heavy tropical storms—the most noteworthy was 2011 when Hurricane Irene touched down and ultimately cost $15 billion alone. Klotzbach’s team predicts that 2018 hurricane activity will be about 135% of the average season. By comparison, 2017’s hurricane activity, highlighted by Harvey, Irma and Maria, exceeded average season expectations by about 245%.

Given the outlook, experts are still optimistic about the insurance industry’s resilience. A recent Moody’s report noted that despite last year’s losses, the reinsurance industry has sufficient capital to absorb hurricane-related claims.

“Hurricanes, particularly Harvey, Irma and Maria, alongside other catastrophe events last year wiped out a number of reinsurers’ profitability for the year and drove the sector’s profitability to its lowest level since 2005,” analyst Rocio Nunez said in a statement.

Here Comes The Flood
There is another risk associated with hurricanes that could also explain the rising costs and number of claims. The storms themselves—not their windspeeds—have been moving slower than they did 70 years ago. With the collective pace of weather systems slowing down, the risk for flooding increases. Jim Kossin, a researcher at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), recently published findings and offered some theories to explain why storms and hurricanes are overstaying their welcome.

According to his recent report, A Global Slowdown of Tropical Cyclone Translation Speed:

One thing scientists do know is that the location where tropical cyclones reach maximum intensity has been shifting toward the poles. And, this may be related to or even causing the overall slowdown.

Using the ‘operational best-track’ data from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF), the 2017 mean-over-land Atlantic translation speed is 17.9 km h-1, which is at the slowest 20th percentile of over-land translation speeds for the period since 1949.

Some experts believe that global warming also contributes to the slower pace since it “weakens the summertime circulation of the atmosphere in the tropics.” Still, a stalled hurricane and ongoing precipitation may be too much for some infrastructures to handle, as was demonstrated in Houston last year.

Hindsight
The 2017 hurricane season was undoubtedly a wakeup call for the United States, as it saw 12 named storms causing 100 deaths—68 from Hurricane Harvey alone—and is considered the 17th deadliest hurricane season since 1990. With regard to economic impact, last year’s natural disasters between June 1 and Nov. 30 caused $200 billion in reported damages, making it the second-costliest season on record behind the 2005 season.

“Hurricane Harvey was a different beast—its movement stalled because of high pressure regions that essentially blocked its path. It’s not clear whether we’ll see that specific situation more commonly as the world warms,” an Ars Technica article noted. Other ways in which climate change contributed to Harvey’s impact—like warmer ocean water and warmer air holding more water vapor—are more obvious.

Risk Management Monitor reported that the majority of senior executives of large U.S. companies with operations in Texas, Florida or Puerto Rico admitted to being unprepared for the hurricanes that devastated their communities in 2017. According to a survey by FM Global, 64% of respondents said the hurricanes had an adverse impact on their operations, a full 62% said they were not entirely prepared.

New RIMS Report Delivers a ‘Wakeup Call’ To Risk Managers

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According to the new RIMS report, Enterprise Risk Management’s Wakeup Call: 10 Years After, an increasing number of organizations are at least partially integrating ERM into their frameworks as they prepare for the possibility of another financial crisis or a new threat.

“The evidence shows that risk management has evolved from a promising but somewhat perfunctory exercise into a strategic management competency,” said RIMS Vice President of Strategic Initiatives Carol Fox, who authored the report. “Even so, given increasingly uncertain times, risk management professionals would be unwise to declare victory or become complacent.”

The 10 Years After report highlights a range of perspectives from executives, officers and risk professionals who represent banking, higher education, technology, health care, transportation, and a federal agency. These professionals offer their perspectives on where ERM stands today. In fact, one shared observation is that the factors which contributed to the crisis are resurfacing, but that ERM can help protect against them. As one technology officer noted: “…as soon as people are introduced into the equation, things change and risks are introduced into the process. While financial models and robot investing are agnostic, once you introduce people, their biases come back into play and disrupt the integrity of those models.”

The integration of ERM programs—even partially—has seen a slow-but-steady climb in the past decade. The report cites statistics from recent RIMS surveys, showing that 92% of financial institutions have fully or partially integrated ERM programs since the housing market crisis. Full integration, however, may be the key to protection and value—and this is accordingly the most daunting, long-term task. “At any point in time, changes in an organization itself, given myriad complexities and disruptions, may take focus away from full integration,” Fox said.

The report discusses what the experts and their industries learned from the financial crisis in the way of risk appetite and regulatory systems. By examining recent literature and studies to better understand the risks facing organizations, the report challenges risk professionals to deliver programs that generate value.

It also offers insight as to what organizations should consider as they further integrate programs. Changes in legislation, interest rates and the volatility of cryptocurrencies are on the collective radar as risk professionals look to the future.

“[bitcoin’s] future is unknown, especially given its recent run-up and sudden devaluation,” the technology officer said. “Cryptocurrency could become problematic because of scale—particularly if someone figures out a way to short-sell it much like what occurred with CDOs.”

Enterprise Risk Management’s Wakeup Call: 10 Years After is available to RIMS members only for the first 60 days. After the introductory period, it will become available to the broader risk management community. You can download the report via Risk Knowledge.

Complementary to the report, Risk Management Monitor recently published Compliance in 2018: Q&A with James Reese of the SEC, highlighting how the SEC views organizational risk management.

Suicide Discussions in the Workplace

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Conversations about suicide in the workplace have been seemingly unavoidable, due to the self-inflicted deaths of apparel icon Kate Spade and Anthony Bourdain, chef, author and “Parts Unknown” host, last week. Employers may use these tragedies to reconsider their own prevention and awareness efforts, and ways they can productively contribute to the dialogue and keep their workers safe.

According to the latest Vital Signs report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (which was released in the time between the two aforementioned fatalities), suicide is the tenth-leading cause of death in the United States and is on the rise. The new data also shows that in 2016, nearly 45,000 Americans age 10 and older died by suicide—equaling about 123 people every day.

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The increases were reflected in 49 states (Nevada being the only one with a decrease) and 25 states had rate increases of more than 30% since 1999.

“Suicide is a leading cause of death for Americans—and it’s a tragedy for families and communities across the country,” CDC Principal Deputy Director Anne Schuchat, M.

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D. said in a statement. “From individuals and communities to employers and healthcare professionals, everyone can play a role in efforts to help save lives and reverse this troubling rise in suicide.”

Suicide is rarely caused by a single factor, the CDC said. Although suicide prevention efforts largely focus on identifying and providing treatment for people with mental health conditions, there are many additional opportunities for prevention.

Dialogue Etiquette
What we say or don’t say, and how we say it, matters to those struggling with thoughts of ending their lives and to those suffering a loss due to suicide. Suggestions for how to address the issue are offered by CNN, which quoted a crisis intervention expert advocating for changing the phrase “committed suicide.”

“It implies sin or crime” –we “commit” sins and crimes – “and pathologizes those affected. We suggest more objective phrasing, like ‘died by/from suicide,’ ‘ended their life’ or ‘took their life,'” said Dese’Rae Stage, a suicide awareness activist. “If we’re using the right language, if we’re pulling negative connotations from the language, talking about suicide may be easier.”

Ultimately, the CDC suggests that there is no single method that best prevents or reduces suicide. “Rather, suicide prevention is best achieved,” it stated in the technical package, “…across all sectors, private and public.”

Although society’s collective attention span is limited, considering the barrage of headlines emanating from media outlets and overall news fatigue, suicide – like drug use – is a public health concern. It is likely that more stories and facts will emerge in the coming weeks about the CDC’s data, as well as the mindsets of Bourdain and Spade, which will bring the topics into a mainstream dialogue again.
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The Business Impact
In 2017, the CDC released Preventing Suicide, a technical package containing strategies and approaches to help employers, government and other sectors of society take a comprehensive public health approach to prevention and address the range of contributing factors.

The package also explores the health and economic consequences of suicides and suicide attempts. For example:

  • In 2013, suicide cost $50.8 billion in estimated lifetime medical and work-loss costs alone.
  • Another study estimated the total lifetime costs associated with nonfatal injuries and deaths caused by self-directed violence to be approximately $93.5 billion in 2013.
  • One estimate suggested that 13.2 million (7%) of the U.S. adult population knew someone 12 months prior to the study who had died by suicide.

The technical package suggests that businesses are among the entities that “are in the best position to establish policies and support practices that create protective environments where people live, work, and play.”

Strategies in a reduction or prevention effort include:

Strengthening access and delivery of suicide care. Two approaches include adding/increasing coverage of mental health conditions in health insurance policies and reducing provider shortages in underserved areas and providing safer care through changes in the systems. The CDC states: “Equal coverage does not necessarily imply good coverage as health insurance plans vary in the extent to which benefits and services are offered to address various health conditions.

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Rather it helps to ensure that mental health services are covered on par with other health concerns.”

Creating protective environments. This involves fostering a culture characterized by awareness and encourages prosocial behavior (such as asking for help) that should start at the executive level. It also calls for reducing access to lethal means (such as chemicals, weapons and other items that may be available or necessary in the workplace) among those who may be at risk of suicide.

Reducing future and unexpected risks. These include suicide contagion—which can be triggered by continuous, sensationalized or uninformed reporting on the subject. Should your workplace be impacted by a suicide, postvention approaches such as debriefing sessions, counseling and other actions to provide a protective environment can help balance workplace morale and “may reduce survivors’ guilt, feelings of depression, and complicated grief.”

It is worth noting that World Suicide Prevention Day will be observed on Sept. 10, which coincides with National Suicide Prevention Week  (Sept. 9-15) in the U.S.