About Hilary Tuttle

Hilary Tuttle is the managing editor of the Risk Management Monitor and Risk Management magazine.
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NOAA Releases 2014 Hurricane Season Outlook

hurricane season

In a press conference this morning, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its official 2014 outlook for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons.

The East Coast may see below-average activity this year, thanks, in part, to the anticipated development of El Nino this summer. According to NOAA, “El Niño causes stronger wind shear, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.”

There is a 50% chance for a below-average season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-average season, the center predicts. “For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which three to six could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to two major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher),” they announced.

2014 Atlantic Hurricane OutlookBut the forecast is no reason to take preparations lightly. “Thanks to the environmental intelligence from NOAA’s network of earth observations, our scientists and meteorologists can provide life-saving products like our new storm surge threat map and our hurricane forecasts,” said Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “And even though we expect El Niño to suppress the number of storms this season, it’s important to remember it takes only one land-falling storm to cause a disaster.”

On the West Coast, it may be a more tumultuous summer. The outlook calls for a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The center predicts there is a 70% chance of 14 to 20 named storms, which includes 7 to 11 hurricanes, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

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“The key climate factor behind the outlook is the likely development of El Niño this summer. El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the eastern tropical Pacific, favoring more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.

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D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The eastern Pacific has been in an era of low activity for hurricanes since 1995, but this pattern will be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño.

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Next week (May 25-31) is National Hurricane Preparedness Week, and NOAA and FEMA will be offering additional tips and insight on their websites ahead of the official start of hurricane season on June 1.

The World’s Most Resilient Cities

Toronto most resilient city

How do you invest, source and expand responsibly?

Picking the right place to do so may make or break your efforts. At least, that’s the theory of London-based property company Grosvenor. With that in mind, the company analyzed 160 data sets to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the world’s “50 most important cities” to determine which are the most resilient, with resilience defined as “the ability of cities to continue to function as centers of production, human habitation, and cultural development despite the challenges posed by climate change, population growth, declining resource supply, and other paradigm shifts.”

Grosvenor first measured vulnerability by looking at climate threats, environmental degradation (including pollution and overconsumption due to sprawl), resources, infrastructure and community cohesion. For the next half of the equation, according to the Guardian, “Adaptive capacity, or a city’s ability to prevent and mitigate serious threats, was a combination of governance (high value here on democracy, freedom of speech, community participation, transparency, accountability and long-term leadership vision), strong institutions, learning capacity (including good technical universities), disaster planner and finally funding (from budget to credit and access to global funding).”

Of particular note, eight of the weakest 20 cities are in BRIC countries, and some of the cities where population and industry growth are waiting to boom may pose the greatest risks.

New Studies Highlight Sources, Patterns of Data Breach—And How to Do Better

Three recent studies provide a great reminder of the threats of data breach—and the role workers and IT departments play in either maintaining a company’s defense or letting malware storm the gates.

In its 2014 Data Breach Investigations Report, Verizon identified nine patterns that were responsible for 92% of the confirmed data breaches in 2013. These include: point of sale intrusions, web application attacks, insider misuse, physical theft/loss, miscellaneous errors, crimeware, card skimmers, denial of service attacks, and cyber-espionage. They have also identified the breakdown of these patterns in various industries, highlighting some of the greatest sources of cyber risk for your business:

Verizon Data Breach Investigations Report

Verizon’s report also offers specific information about the patterns and advice on how to respond to them.

Many sources of vulnerability come from within, and there is less variation than you might expect in terms of who the riskiest workers may be.

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A survey by the Pew Research Center found that 18% of adults have had important personal information stolen online, including Social Security number, credit card, or bank account information—an 8% increase from just six months ago. Further, 21% of adults who use the internet have had an email or social networking account compromised. Two groups that make up a large part of the workforce were hit particularly hard during this period: young adults and baby boomers. The percentage of individuals in these groups who had personal information stolen online doubled between July 2013 and January 2014.

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stolen personal data by age

But as this chart shows, all age ranges have experienced a significant amount of data theft as of the beginning of the year.

Indeed, according to meetings-software company TeamViewer, 92% of IT administrators have seen troublesome habits among office workers using company computers. These risky behaviors are frequently known to open the work system to viruses or other malware, including:

  • Browsing social media websites (reported by 82% of IT admins)
  • Opening inappropriate email attachments (57%)
  • Downloading games (52%)
  • Plugging in unauthorized USB devices (51%)
  • Plugging in unauthorized personal devices (50%)
  • Illegal downloads, such as pirated movies, music or software (45%)
  • Looking for other jobs (39%)

Further, nine out of 10 IT administrators reported witnessing problems to company equipment because of these actions, including viruses (77%), slow computers (74%), crashed computers (55%), mass popups (48%) and inability to open email (33%). Not only do these behaviors leave corporate infrastructure at risk, but they may endanger the overall HR program, as a vast proportion of IT workers report feeling frustrated, angry and discouraged.

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Up to 12% even said that they were considering quitting over these bad behaviors and increased strain on the IT department.

So what can you do? Administrators agreed that better security software, using remote access to fix problems, installing disk cleanup software, integrating automatic backup solutions, and offering the ability to telecommute would all help mitigate these issues and make their jobs easier.

Top Female Risk Managers Offer Insight on Success with the Board and Beyond

DENVER—Four of the top risk managers gathered today to reflect on their career paths and tips for success in the panel “Women of Distinction: Risk Managers of the Year Share Their Wisdom.”

Noted for far more than their gender, Grace Crickette, Lori Gray, Sheila Small, and Laurie Solomon have all received top accolades in the industry and were all previously been named Risk Manager of the Year. While they all reflected on the strengths and skills that women bring to the field, they did acknowledge a number of challenges faced on the road to management positions, some of which should be no surprise to any woman in business. “When I was first made an executive, I had to see a clinical psychologist,” said Grace Crickette, SVP and CRO for AAA Northern California, Nevada and Utah.

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“He told me, ‘You have some really great traits to be in business—if you were a man.  As a woman, you’re probably going to have a pretty hard time.’”

Their insight stretched far beyond questions of being a woman in the workplace, however. In particular, their advice on how to earn the respect and recognition of the board offered key tips for any risk manager, male or female. “You need to focus more on building your reputation for work with the board,” Crickette said.

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“Help educate them. I make a point to send out an article—not written by me—at least once a month that offers something valuable to learn. In doing so, you also demonstrate what you know, understand, and can engage about.”

“Few people understand our companies across the whole organization as well as we do,” said Laurie Solomon, The Coca-Cola Company’s director of risk management. “Our biggest asset is that broad knowledge of the organization, how it works, what the biggest challenges are, and where there is the greatest potential for risk or growth.” That knowledge and comfort in the material at hand breeds confidence. Knowledge, experience, and confidence combine to create credibility, and that credibility is what facilitates access to the board and progress in your program and your career, she said.

Credibility also has tremendous impact on a risk manager’s success in the public sector as well. Last year’s Risk Manager of the Year, Lori Gray of Prince William County, emphasized the human component of this. The risk assessment process, she said, offers a prime opportunity to establish credibility and strong working relationships by meeting critical players face to face.

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“Risk assessment is your opportunity to meet people in person and ask what keeps them up at night. You are developing critical relationships while getting an honest, first-hand perspective of the exposures that should be on your radar,” Gray said. “Going out and meeting department heads is critical because one of your chief jobs is to sell. You are selling yourself and selling your program.”

Gaining recognition may be one of the greatest challenges for the future of risk managers and risk management as a whole. “Part of the challenge we face as an industry is to get recognition of risk management as a pool for future CEOs and COOs,” said Crickette. “The skills and insight we have would make for fantastic officers, but people just do not think of us for those opportunities. The industry has a lot to do to promote our potential.”