About Emily Holbrook

Emily Holbrook is a former editor of the Risk Management Monitor and Risk Management magazine. You can read more of her writing at EmilyHolbrook.com.
Игроки всегда ценят удобный и стабильный доступ к играм. Для этого идеально подходит зеркало Вавады, которое позволяет обходить любые ограничения, обеспечивая доступ ко всем бонусам и слотам.

Strong Prediction for Fourth Quarter Cat Bond Market

The catastrophe bond market saw a very slow recovery (if we can call it that) in the beginning of this year, with the number of bonds issued down 33% year over year.

But the fourth quarter is looking much more promising, according to a report from Guy Carpenter.

The report, “Cat Bond Update: Third Quarter 2009,”  says that various trends and activity within the cat bond market could result in a total of between $3 billion and $4 billion worth of issuance in 2009. Also encouraging is the report’s statement that new risk capital issued in the third quarter of 2009 rose 28.8% compared with the same quarter of 2008.

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Though the cat bond market is still severely behind its 2007 performance, the conclusion of the fourth quarter of this year may see 2009 catch up to 2008 in terms of issuance.

David Priebe, chairman of global client development for Guy Carpenter suggests both caution and optimism with views of the cat bond market:

Given the increase in risk capital and the performance of the two bonds issued in the third quarter — both in terms of pricing and size — a fourth quarter that would account for more than 40 % of the year’s total issuance is not unattainable. [However], redemptions resulting from cat bonds maturing and a fairly light Atlantic hurricane season should also increase demand for new issuance.

The report offers the following fourth quarter 2009 outlook:

  • Improvement in global financial market conditions and advances in the insurance-linked securities (ILS) collateral solutions — coupled with a stronger demand for issuance and the increasing capacity of investors — have resulted in a shift in the ILS market relative to the beginning of 2009.
  • Investors are increasingly focusing on capital deployment and stimulating additional primary issuance, which is contributing to spread tightening.
  • The consensus estimate for 2009 total issuance remains from billion to billion, implying a fourth quarter issuance rate of $2 billion to $2.2 billion.

Eleven more weeks of cat bond market activity will prove this prediction right or wrong.

Close to 100 in U.S. and Egypt Charged With ID Theft

The Associated Press recently reported that nearly 100 individuals have been charged in one of the largest identity theft rings ever uncovered. The defendants hail from California, Nevada, North Carolina and Egypt. The scam targeted two banks and close to 5,000 U.S. citizens, with combined losses of up to $2 million.

The group engaged in “phishing” to retrieve personal information on the unsuspecting victims — a common method among those who commit identity theft.

As San Diego News Network states:

The ring consisted of computer hackers in Egypt sending out “phishing” messages, or mass e-mails directing people to fake banking Web sites, where they were instructed to enter personal information. The information was then used to transfer money between the victims’ accounts to ones that could be withdrawn from by co-conspirators in the United States. According to the FBI, between $1 million and $2 million was stolen.

33 people have been arrested in the United States while another 21 are being sought. In Egypt, 47 have been taken into custody.

United States businesses lose an estimated $2 million per year as their clients become victims of "phishing."

United States businesses lose an estimated $2 million per year as their clients become victims of "phishing."

Storm Summary 8

Welcome to the eighth “Storm Summary” post of the hurricane season.

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Most Fridays from now until the official end of the season (November 30) I will post an update on past and present storms, like the following:

NAME PEAK STATUS DATE LOCATION DAMAGE
Carlos Cat. 1 7/10 to 7/16 East Pacific None
Felicia Cat.  4 8/3 to 8/11 East Pacific None
Guillermo Cat. 3 8/12 to 8/19 East Pacific None
Bill Cat. 4 8/15 to 8/24 Mid Atlantic No major damage
Fred Cat. 3 9/7 to 9/12 South Atlantic None
Jimena Cat. 4 8/29 to 9/4 East Pacific No major damage
Linda Cat. 1 9/7 to 9/11 East Pacific None

Though the Atlantic has only seen two official hurricanes, the waters of the Pacific are seeing constant activity, due, in part, to El Niño, which is “the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters [that] occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.” Although most people think of this phenomenon in negative terms for the damage it can spur on the West Coast, it is actually beneficial to the East Coast/Gulf Coast in the sense that warmer waters in the Pacific usually create conditions that suppress Atlantic hurricanes.

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Why exactly this occurs is not something I’m qualified to explain but, as I recall, it has something to do with warm and cool air mixing in a different way and creating a “wind shear” that helps prevent storms from developing.

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The International Research Institute for Climate and Society can probably explain it better.

For constant, up-to-date storm information, visit NOAA. And for breaking information on the insured losses the storms create, check out the Insurance Information Institute and the Insurance Services Office.

Most importantly, don’t forget to check back next Friday for our ninth “Storm Summary” installment.

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Testing for E. Coli Begins . . . At Costco at Least

Ever wonder where your ground beef comes from? It’s doesn’t originate from one chunk of prime meat sent through a grinder to be packaged up for sale to your family for your next barbecue.  No, instead hamburger meat is most times a combination of various grades of meat from all different parts of cows (including some unappealing parts). When a company such as Cargill, a major food manufacturer, mass produces its popular frozen hamburger patties, they oftentimes receive meats from different slaughterhouses, combining everything to produce the basis for your next cheeseburger or lasagna.

The problem with this (if you haven’t found one yet) is that, as food experts say time and time again, this amalgam of cow parts makes ground beef most susceptible to E. coli. Even so, there remains no federal requirement for grinders to test for the pathogen. As someone who has been infected with E. coli, this is unacceptable. It should not only be unacceptable to me, but to the legions of other meat-eaters out there. Though my experience with the painful illness was horrible, it was nothing compared to what Stephanie Smith went through. 22-year-old Smith was in a coma for nine weeks and is now paralyzed — a severe reaction from E. coli. Hardcore carnivores may not want to read her story, as featured recently in The New York Times.

With no one policing such meat and thousands being sickened each year (there have been 17 outbreaks of E. coli since 2007), how is the public to trust what’s on their dinner plate? You could start by buying your ground beef at Costco. The warehouse discount chain recently reported that they would begin testing for E. coli.

Costco’s food safety director, Craig Wilson, said the company would begin buying beef trimmings for making hamburger from Tyson, one of the largest beef producers, after an agreement reached with Tyson this week that allows Costco to test the trimmings before they are mixed with those from other suppliers.

Though not fully cleared from the pathogen, the Tyson trimmings are to be fully tested before being mixed with other slaughterhouse’s meats. In the past, testing was sometimes done after mixing and grinding the various meats, a process that proved unsuccessful when trying to pinpoint the origin of E. coli. Though this is not a cure, it is a step in the right direction — a step towards risk management for the beef industry.

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