About Emily Holbrook

Emily Holbrook is a former editor of the Risk Management Monitor and Risk Management magazine. You can read more of her writing at EmilyHolbrook.com.
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Storm Summary 13

Welcome to the twelfth “Storm Summary” post of the hurricane season. Most Fridays from now until the official end of the season (November 30) I will post an update on past and present hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific, like the following:

NAME PEAK STATUS DATE LOCATION DAMAGE
Carlos Cat. 1 7/10 to 7/16 East Pacific None
Felicia Cat. 4 8/3 to 8/11 East Pacific None
Guillermo Cat. 3 8/12 to 8/19 East Pacific None
Bill Cat. 4 8/15 to 8/24 Mid Atlantic No major damage
Fred Cat. 3 9/7 to 9/12 South Atlantic None
Jimena Cat. 4 8/29 to 9/4 East Pacific No major damage
Linda Cat. 1 9/7 to 9/11 East Pacific None
Rick Cat. 5 10/15 to 10/21 East Pacific No major damage
Neki Cat. 3 10/18 to 10/27 Central Pacific No major damage
Ida Cat. 2 11/4 to 11/10 Western Caribbean No major damage

Let’s talk Hurricane Ida.

Ida began as a small storm off the coast of Costa Rica on Nov. 4. It then strengthened to a tropical storm and then a hurricane — the third of the Atlantic hurricane season. Ida made landfall in Nicaragua on Nov. 5, which weakened it to a tropical storm.

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But Ida wouldn’t go down quietly — late on Nov. 6, Ida made her way back to water an regained strength. It was classified yet again as a tropical storm early the next morning and as a category 1 hurricane later that same day. Hurricane Ida was classified as a category 2 storm on Nov. 8 and she made landfall in and around El Salvador two days later as a weakened tropical storm.

Initial reports out of the area blamed Hurricane Ida for 124 deaths.

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However, later reports from the National Hurricane Center placed the blame on a “disturbed weather area” off the coast of El Salvador, which brought torrential rains and deadly mudslides. It should be noted that the reason we claim there was “no major damage” from Hurricane Ida is because, though Ida did cause minor damage, the majority of the destruction was due to the weather that immediately followed the Ida.

Though the Atlantic has only seen three official hurricanes, the waters of the Pacific are seeing constant activity, due, in part, to El Niño, which is “the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters [that] occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.” Although most people think of this phenomenon in negative terms for the damage it can spur on the West Coast, it is actually beneficial to the East Coast/Gulf Coast in the sense that warmer waters in the Pacific usually create conditions that suppress Atlantic hurricanes.

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Why exactly this occurs is not something I’m qualified to explain but, as I recall, it has something to do with warm and cool air mixing in a different way and creating a “wind shear” that helps prevent storms from developing. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society can probably explain it better. For hard proof of El Niño, consider the fact that the Pacific has seen 23 named storms, mostly tropical storms and hurricanes, while the Atlantic waters have seen only 11.

For constant, up-to-date storm information, visit NOAA. And for breaking information on the insured losses the storms create, check out the Insurance Information Institute and the Insurance Services Office.

Most importantly, don’t forget to check back next Friday for our fourteenth “Storm Summary” installment.

Cyclone Phyan Halts Daily Life in Coastal India

Tropical Cyclone Phyan has just struck India’s western coast near the commercial capital of Mumbai, prompting mass evacuations.

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In preparation for the storm, authorities has closed schools, shops and offices.

The cyclone, however, turned out to be more rain than wrath along India’s drought-ridden coast. Though it has been reported that the storm caused no major damage, 200 fisherman are missing in the rough seas. Indian natives have seen their fair share of destruction from cyclones.

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In May of this year, Cyclone Aila pounded eastern India and Bangladesh, killing close to 200 people and destroying thousands of homes.

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And just two years ago, Cyclone Sidr struck the same area, killing more than 3,500 people and displacing another 2 million. Below is a listing of the 15 deadliest cyclones in history, with death toll figures (death tolls from the earliest cyclones are more speculative than fact).

Great Bhola Cyclone, Bangladesh
1970
Bay of Bengal
500,000
Hooghly River Cyclone, India and Bangladesh
1737
Bay of Bengal
300,000
Haiphong Typhoon, Vietnam
1881
West Pacific
300,000
Coringa, India
1839
Bay of Bengal
300,000
Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh
1584
Bay of Bengal
200,000
Great Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh
1876
Bay of Bengal
200,000
Chittagong, Bangladesh
1897
Bay of Bengal
175,000
Super Typhoon Nina, China
1975
West Pacific
171,000
Cyclone 02B, Bangladesh
1991
Bay of Bengal
140,000
Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar
2008
Bay of Bengal
140,000
Great Bombay Cyclone, India
1882
Arabian Sea
100,000
Hakata Bay Typhoon, Japan
1281
West Pacific
65,000
Calcutta, India
1864
Bay of Bengal
60,000
Swatlow, China
1922
West Pacific
60,000
Barisal, Bangladesh
1822
Bay of Bengal
50,000
Sunderbans coast, Bangladesh
1699
Bay of Bengal
50,000
India
1833
Bay of Bengal
50,000
India
1854
Bay of Bengal
50,000
Great Bhola Cyclone, Bangladesh
1970
Bay of Bengal
500,000
Hooghly River Cyclone, India and Bangladesh
1737
Bay of Bengal
300,000
Haiphong Typhoon, Vietnam
1881
West Pacific
300,000
Coringa, India
1839
Bay of Bengal
300,000
Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh
1584
Bay of Bengal
200,000
Great Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh
1876
Bay of Bengal
200,000
Chittagong, Bangladesh
1897
Bay of Bengal
175,000
Super Typhoon Nina, China
1975
West Pacific
171,000
Cyclone 02B, Bangladesh
1991
Bay of Bengal
140,000
Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar
2008
Bay of Bengal
140,000
Great Bombay Cyclone, India
1882
Arabian Sea
100,000
Hakata Bay Typhoon, Japan
1281
West Pacific
65,000
Calcutta, India
1864
Bay of Bengal
60,000
Swatlow, China
1922
West Pacific
60,000
Barisal, Bangladesh
1822
Bay of Bengal
50,000
Sunderbans coast, Bangladesh
1699
Bay of Bengal
50,000
India
1833
Bay of Bengal
50,000
India
1854
Bay of Bengal
50,000
  • Great Bhola Cyclone, Bangladesh, 1970, Bay of Bengal, 500,000
  • Hooghly River Cyclone, India and Bangladesh, 1737, Bay of Bengal, 300,000
  • Haiphong Typhoon, Vietnam, 1881, West Pacific, 300,000
  • Coringa, India, 1839, Bay of Bengal, 300,000
  • Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh, 1584, Bay of Bengal, 200,000
  • Great Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh, 1876, Bay of Bengal, 200,000
  • Chittagong, Bangladesh, 1897, Bay of Bengal, 175,000
  • Super Typhoon Nina, China, 1975, West Pacific, 171,000
  • Cyclone 02B, Bangladesh, 1991, Bay of Bengal, 140,000
  • Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar, 2008, Bay of Bengal, 140,000
  • Great Bombay Cyclone, India, 1882, Arabian Sea, 100,000
  • Hakata Bay Typhoon, Japan, 1281, West Pacific, 65,000
  • Calcutta, India, 1864, Bay of Bengal, 60,000
  • Swatlow, China, 1922, West Pacific, 60,000
  • Barisal, Bangladesh, 1822, Bay of Bengal, 50,000
  • Sunderbans coast, Bangladesh, 1699, Bay of Bengal, 50,000
  • India, 1833, Bay of Bengal, 50,000
  • India, 1854, Bay of Bengal, 50,000

Authorities remain on alert as mudslides are a common occurrence following the torrential rains of tropical cyclones. More reports will be available as the destruction (or lack thereof) and loss of life become more clear. Stay tuned.

Storm Summary 12

Welcome to the twelfth “Storm Summary” post of the hurricane season.

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Most Fridays from now until the official end of the season (November 30) I will post an update on past and present hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific, like the following:

NAME PEAK STATUS DATE LOCATION DAMAGE
Carlos Cat. 1 7/10 to 7/16 East Pacific None
Felicia Cat. 4 8/3 to 8/11 East Pacific None
Guillermo Cat. 3 8/12 to 8/19 East Pacific None
Bill Cat. 4 8/15 to 8/24 Mid Atlantic No major damage
Fred Cat. 3 9/7 to 9/12 South Atlantic None
Jimena Cat. 4 8/29 to 9/4 East Pacific No major damage
Linda Cat. 1 9/7 to 9/11 East Pacific None
Rick Cat. 5 10/15 to 10/21 East Pacific No major damage
Neki Cat. 3 10/18 to 10/27 Central Pacific No major damage
Ida Cat. 1 11/4 to 11/5 Caribbean No major damage

The only addition we have to the hurricane list is Ida, which was a short-lived and quite uneventful hurricane that is now a Tropical Depression hovering off the coast of Honduras. As was predicted, the 2009 hurricane season is shaping up to be a (thankfully) dismal event.

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Though the Atlantic has only seen two official hurricanes, the waters of the Pacific are seeing constant activity, due, in part, to El Niño, which is “the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters [that] occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.” Although most people think of this phenomenon in negative terms for the damage it can spur on the West Coast, it is actually beneficial to the East Coast/Gulf Coast in the sense that warmer waters in the Pacific usually create conditions that suppress Atlantic hurricanes.

Why exactly this occurs is not something I’m qualified to explain but, as I recall, it has something to do with warm and cool air mixing in a different way and creating a “wind shear” that helps prevent storms from developing. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society can probably explain it better. For hard proof of El Niño, consider the fact that the Pacific has seen 23 named storms, mostly tropical storms and hurricanes, while the Atlantic waters have seen only 10.

For constant, up-to-date storm information, visit NOAA. And for breaking information on the insured losses the storms create, check out the Insurance Information Institute and the Insurance Services Office.

Most importantly, don’t forget to check back next Friday for our twelfth “Storm Summary” installment.

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The Insurance Industry and Climate Change

This morning, AIR Worldwide, in collaboration with the the U.

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K. Met Office and the Association of British Insurers (ABI), released their findings on the financial implications of climate change to the insurance industry.

The report, “Financial Risks of Climate Change,” focuses on insured risks in both the U.K and China from dominant natural hazards in those areas, including inland flooding, winter windstorms and typhoons.

Results from the study include:

  • The average annual insured inland flood losses in Great Britain could rise by 14 percent assuming a global temperature rise of 4°C (39 degrees Fahrenheit). Within Great Britain, the results vary by region (increases range from less than 10 percent to nearly 30 percent).
  • The insured inland flood loss in Great Britain occurring on average once every 100 years could rise by 30 percent. The insured inland flood loss occurring on average once every 200 years could rise by 32 percent.
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    In both cases, the estimates assume a global temperature rise of 4°C.

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  • The average annual insured losses from typhoons affecting China could increase by 32 percent; the 100-year loss could increase by 9 percent, and the 200-year loss could increase by 17 percent. In all cases, the estimates assume a global temperature rise of 4°C.The average annual insured inland flood losses in Great Britain could rise by 14 percent assuming a global temperature rise of 4°C. Within Great Britain, the results vary by region (increases range from less than 10 percent to nearly 30 percent).

“The earth’s climate system is constantly changing,” said Dr. Peter Dailey, assistant vice president and director of atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide. “Not only does a change to any component of the system influence the risk from natural catastrophes, but the interactions between components bring about an inherent uncertainty surrounding how climate will evolve in the future. By conditioning our models on future climate scenarios developed by leading climate researchers at the Met Office, the study we have conducted on behalf of the ABI advances our understanding of the relationship between these complex climate relationships and insured risk.”

The research brings together unique climate model projections with state-of-the-art catastrophe models. And as we’ve recently seen with Typhoon Ketsana, which demolished parts of China, the Philippines, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos and killed almost 700 and caused more than $1 billion in damage — research in this area is greatly needed. Nothing can stop Mother Nature, but cat models can help prepare for her wrath.
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