About Emily Holbrook

Emily Holbrook is a former editor of the Risk Management Monitor and Risk Management magazine. You can read more of her writing at EmilyHolbrook.com.
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The Most Hazardous Countries for Business

It’s a dangerous world for business people, and it is well known that some areas of the world are definitely more dangerous than others.

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Maplecroft, a risk intelligence organization, has released its analysis of the 175 most dangerous countries for business. Its Global Risks Index (GRI) measures a combination of different risks that have an impact on global operations, supply chains and distribution networks of corporations.

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The GRI takes into account the following risks:

  • Terrorism
  • Conflict
  • Macroeconomic Risks
  • Rule of Law
  • Resource Security
  • Vulnerability to climate change
  • Natural Disasters
  • Human rights violations
  • Poverty
  • Risks from pandemics and infectious diseases

Without much surprise, Africa takes the cake for being home to the most dangerous countries in which to do business. The top four are:

  1. Somalia
  2. DR Congo
  3. Zimbabwe
  4. Sudan

Other notably dangerous countries include Afghanistan, Nigeria, Iraq, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Yemen. The report pointed to the most dangerous countries’ weak governance, internal conflicts and regional instability among the reasons  It’s also important to note that “several of these countries, including DR Congo, Nigeria, Iraq and Pakistan, are owners of huge oil, gas and mineral reserves, which form important links in the supply chains of western and BRIC companies alike.” The following map indicates regions of risk from low to extreme:

worldmap

The report also mentions countries that, although not highly ranked as dangerous, are critical to supply chains. Those countries include the Philippines, Indonesia and India.

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The United States, Canada and Australia remain low risk.

Iceland Says “No” to Paying Back Billions

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Iceland has not had much good publicity in the past two years, and it doesn’t look like that will change any time soon.

Back in 2008, Iceland’s government and economy essentially collapsed, leaving the country’s 304,000 residents in despair after what is now called the largest banking collapse in economic history.

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Now into 2010, the country is still reeling from the financial crisis that severely weakened the value of its currency, caused a 90% drop in capitalization of its stock exchange and decreased its GDP by 5.5% in the first six months of 2009.

But Iceland’s residents were not the only ones hurting.

The millions of foreign depositors who had chosen the country’s banks as a safe-haven for their savings were faced with the grim reality that every penny that had deposited there was now frozen. Though Britain and the Netherlands stepped in to refund the savers, Iceland is still in debt to those two countries.

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And today, news reports claim that the country’s president, Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, refused to sign a bill to repay a $5 billion debt to Britain and the Netherlands.

The Icelandic banks and their online subsidiaries with their high interest rates had attracted many savers from Britain and the Netherlands. When the banks collapsed 15 months ago, the British and Dutch governments stepped in to refund their savers who lost money. Britain and the Netherlands then negotiated a deal with the Icelandic government to be reimbursed for the money they paid out, and that bill was passed by the Icelandic parliament. Last week, though, President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson refused to sign the bill.

Grimsson references the Icelandic Constitution, stating that a referendum must now happen since he has received a petition signed by a quarter of the country’s population, which urged the president to renegotiate the terms of the repayment.

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 The loan carries a 5.5% interest rate and some feel that the if Iceland were to repay with the current terms, it could potentially cause a national bankruptcy.

Steingrimur Sigfusson, Iceland’s finance minister, understands that the issue is extremely unpopular among residents, but that in order to move forward and continue with economic restoration, the country must meet its obligations.

Whether a referendum happens or not, Sigfusson says, there is something deeper going on in Iceland–a moving away from what he calls the culture of neo-liberal greed and a returning home to its Nordic roots.

Whether or not Iceland will be able to dig itself out of this financial, political and economic conundrum and return to its Nordic roots will remain to be seen. Taking into account the country’s recent track record and its diminutive size in both population and world power, the odds are against it.

Recap of the P/C Insurance Joint Industry Forum

A group of notable industry insiders gathered Tuesday to participate in the “View From the Inside Looking Out,” the panel discussion at the 14th annual Property/Casualty Joint Industry Forum. I was lucky enough to attend this event, held at the Waldorf-Astoria hotel in Midtown Manhattan. It seemed as though every major insurance/reinsurance group was represented, along with financial corporations and regulating organizations.

The topic of conversation focused mostly on the performance of the P/C market during the financial downturn and the future of industry regulation.

“The worst of the financial crisis is over, but we still need to avoid inflation,” said Jay Gelb, director of senior equity research at Barclays Capital. “I don’t think the P/C industry is going to see positive growth anytime soon, however.”

Jay added, “The U.S. P/C industry is probably overcapitalized by 20% and we see underwriting losses continuing to rise.”

Joseph Guastella, head of Deloitte’s Global Insurance Practice, agreed. “I think it will start to trend up in 2011, but still a moderate growth at that time. The industry as a whole is going to be a pretty flat market for a while.”

In terms of regulation, both for the insurance and financial industry, the panelists had much to say about the reform they see emerging.

“We need some kind of mechanism for looking cross-sectorally for systemic risk,” said Therese Vaughn, CEO of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. “What’s going on in DC is less likely to impact regulation than what’s going on globally. International standards are going to become more and more important.”

“I think a systemic risk regime is a bad idea,” said Scott Harrington, professor of health care management and insurance and risk management at Wharton School of Business. “It’s probably the single most destructive idea.”

“What we think will actually evolve is probably less sweeping than we thought six months ago,” said Joseph Guastella.

Though many of the panelists agreed that the P/C sector performed relatively well in the midst of an economic downturn, they all agreed that they should not be overly confident and that the future of the industry requires cautious optimism.

For more on the coverage of this event, check out the P&C National Underwriter website and the Insurance Information Institute’s website.

Devastation in Haiti

Residents of Haiti are seeing the sun rise over their devastated country after a magnitude 7.0 earthquake hit the country’s captial of Port-au-Prince. Thousands are feared dead in the notoriously poor country where unstable shanty towns make up the majority of the cities, especially densely populated Port-au-Prince.

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Heads of government organizations were killed as was the Archbishop of Haiti, along with hundreds, possibly thousands, of the nation’s residents.

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The French foreign minister said that the head of the United Nations mission in Haiti had been killed when the mission’s headquarters collapsed. The minister, Bernard Kouchner, told French radio stations that Hedi Annabi, the Tunisian head of the United Nations’ Haiti mission, and “all those who were with him and around him” were dead. Fourteen members of the United Nations cultural agency were reported missing.

This earthquake was the worst in the region in more than 200 years.

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Foreign governments and aid organizations around the world are mobilizing. The International Red Cross has said that the Port-au-Prince airport is open and relief flights would begin today.
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Though Haiti is situated in an area prone to natural disasters, such as tsunamis, hurricanes and earthquakes, it has seen relatively few natural catastrophes in recent years. The Insurance Information Institute lists the 10 worst earthquakes in terms of victims:

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As the country’s residents struggle to cope with what has happened, we will be keeping an eye on all updates regarding this situation. To view a world map all current disasters worldwide, click here.