About Emily Holbrook

Emily Holbrook is a former editor of the Risk Management Monitor and Risk Management magazine. You can read more of her writing at EmilyHolbrook.com.
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Countries Most Vulnerable to Economic Losses

Natural disasters in any form wreak havoc not only on the property and residents of the area affected, but also on its economic stability. Risk intelligence company Maplecroft set out to answer the question of which countries are most vulnerable to economic losses from natural disasters.

To answer this, they used their Natural Disasters Economic Loss Index (NDELI), which evaluates the economic impact of “earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, storms, flooding, drought, landslides, extreme temperatures and epidemics between 1980 and 2010.”

The results highlighted the top 10 most vulnerable countries as:

  1. Haiti
  2. Mozambique
  3. Honduras
  4. Vanuatu
  5. Zimbabwe
  6. El Salvador
  7. Nicaragua
  8. Sri Lanka
  9. Fiji
  10. Tajikistan

As for industrialized economies, Italy, Japan, China, USA, Spain and France all ranked in the “high risk” category.

“When economic losses are taken as absolute figures, it is predominantly the industrialised countries, such as USA and China, that shoulder the greatest costs,” explained Maplecroft Environmental Analyst, Dr Anna Moss.

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“However, when losses are calculated as a percentage of GDP, it is developing countries that are most exposed. For example, the USA’s losses from the 1997-1998 El Niño were US$ 1.

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96 billion, or 0.03 percent of GDP, whereas in Ecuador, economic losses were US$ 2.9 billion, or 14.6 percent of GDP.”

Maplecroft says that the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that struck Haiti in January cost the country close to $8 billion, or 73% of annual GDP. As for number two Mozambique, it’s the increasing amount of flooding over the last decade. The World Bank has reported that Mozambique is at “increasing risk from storm surges . . . due to climate change and estimates that 41% of the country’s coastal area and 52% of coastal GDP is vulnerable.”

Says Profesor Alyson Warhurst, CEO of Maplecroft:

“Climate change has the potential to raise global temperatures and affect weather patterns – the fear for insurers is that this will lead to more frequent and extreme hydro-meteorological related losses.”

If you add up the costs associated with the earthquakes in Haiti and Chile, plus this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, the cost of natural disasters to the insurance industry in 2010 could reach $110 billion worldwide, according to Swiss Re. A frightening figure to say the least.

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Fireworks Gone Wrong

Every 4th of July, average, law-abiding citizens turn into amateur pyromaniacs (myself included). And each Independence Day the emergency rooms are full of those people (and onlookers) who have been injured by these beautiful displays of chemicals mixing with fire to create the glorious sky art we so enjoy. Here are a couple of geniuses setting off fireworks in a driveway, with one participant sustaining burns (the first firework launch is all that really needs to be viewed to understand the risks):

In response to the upcoming 4th of July fire hazard, the Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association is issuing a warning to both firework fans and insurance companies:

Insurance agents should be aware that in 2008, fireworks caused an estimated 22,500 reported fires, including 1,400 total structure fires, 500 vehicle fires, and 20,600 outside and other fires. These fires resulted in an estimated one civilian death, 40 civilian injuries and $42 million in direct property damage, according to the National Fire Protection Association.

But let us not forget the mother of all fireworks disasters — the Enshede fireworks factory explosion in May 2000. The fire, and following massive explosion, killed 23 people and injured 947 in and around the Netherlands factory.

As evidenced here, fireworks are both beautiful and deadly. Be safe this 4th of July weekend.

NFIP Back in Action — At Least Temporarily

What timing. The National Flood Insurance Program received temporary re-authorization last night by the U.S. Senate. The vote puts the NFIP back in business until September 30.

This is good timing for those along the coast as the storm season has kicked into gear with hurricane Alex now battering the coast of Mexico and south Texas. As the Insurance Journal states:

“It is alarming that the NFIP was allowed to remain expired for so long, causing so much confusion and potentially leaving desperate homeowners and small businesses unprotected for almost a month,” said Robert Rusbuldt, Big “I” president and CEO. “While the Big ‘I’ is appreciative of Congress extending the program on a temporary basis, we are also greatly concerned that these short expiration periods and patchwork of temporary extensions will negatively impact the market.

The program lapsed June 1 for the fourth time. Now, the measure sits on President Obama’s desk, awaiting his signature. If signed, it would allow any new policy application or renewals that were signed and submitted during the hiatus to become effective from the date of application.

The official end to the 2010 hurricane season is November 30 — two months after the program’s new expiration date. Not good news, considering this hurricane season is predicted to be much more active than average — Weather Services International is calling for 20 named storms, with five being a category 3 or higher. Without more support from Congress, this hurricane season could prove not only historical in terms of storms, but also in uninsured property damage.

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Cryptographic Lock Baffles the FBI

encryption

Cryptography: The art of writing or solving codes.

Daniel Dantas: A Brazilian banker whose arrested in 2008 for attempting to bribe a police officer. He is also suspected of money laundering, embezzlement and other financial crimes. More importantly, he has managed to fool not only the South American authorities with his cryptographic locks on his numerous hard drives, but also the FBI.

That’s right — since July 2008, when Dantas was arrested, the FBI and officials throughout South America have tried fruitlessly to decrypt files held on the banker’s hardware (a story I first saw this morning on the Schneier on Security blog).

As The Register, a UK-based newspaper, states:

The files were encrypted using Truecrypt and an unnamed algorithm, reportedly based on the 256-bit AES standard. In the UK, Dantas would be compelled to reveal his passphrase under threat of imprisonment, but no such law exists in Brazil. The Brazilian National Institute of Criminology (INC) tried for five months to obtain access to the encrypted data without success before turning over the job to code-breakers at the FBI in early 2009. US computer specialists also drew a blank even after 12 months of efforts to crack the code.

A full year of diligent work from highly-intelligent code breakers and still nothing? Dantas seems to have chosen the right encryption software and password. We’ve seen that choosing a secure password, though very important, seems difficult for many to do. In an article we ran back in April entitled “The Real Enemy,” we highlighted the ignorance of many password-choosers.

Back in 1990, a Unix password study revealed that the most popular password was “12345.” Today, even with the proliferation of hacking and data security warnings, the most popular password, chosen by 320,000 of all users on RockYou [a web app company], was “123456”-an entire digit longer. This was followed by the 1990 favorite “12345” and then, creatively enough, “123456789” and “password.” About 20% of the people on the site picked from a relatively small pool of only 5,000 passwords. According to the data security firm Imperva, these poor passwords mean that “with only minimal effort, a hacker can gain access to one new account every second or 1,000 accounts every 17 minutes.”

It’s 2010 and it seems only Dantas and a handful of others are successful at securely encrypting their sensitive data. What can we learn from this? Choose better passwords, engage encryption software if necessary — and the FBI isn’t as smart as we think.