Author Archives: Emily Holbrook

About Emily Holbrook

Emily Holbrook is a former editor of the Risk Management Monitor and Risk Management magazine. You can read more of her writing at EmilyHolbrook.com.
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The Growing Problem of Supply Chain Risk

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As the modern business world becomes more and more sophisticated, so too do the supply chains on which organizations rely. And as these supply chains have become more sophisticated and intertwined, the risk of possible problems has grown.

A recent report by Deloitte states that “Because of the importance of supply chain management to companies’ success, supply chain risk events are having a profound effect and becoming more costly.” The consulting firm surveyed 600 executives at manufacturing and retail companies to understand their perceptions of the causes and affects of supply chain risks. Some of the key findings include:

  • Supply chain risk is a strategic issue. There are now more risks to the supply chain and risk events are becoming more costly. As a result, 71% of executives said that supply chain risk is important in strategic decision making at their companies.
  • Margin erosion and sudden demand changes cause the greatest impacts. The most common and the most costly outcomes of supply chain disruptions are erosion of margins and an inability to keep up with sudden changes in demand, which illustrates the extent to which the supply chain risk issue affects the “heart of the business.”
  • Most concern about extended value chain. Executives surveyed are more concerned about risks to their extended value chain—outside suppliers, distributors, and customers—than about risks to company-owned operations and supporting functions.
  • Supply chain risk management is not always considered effective. Two thirds of companies have a supply chain risk management program in place, but only half the surveyed executives believed those programs are extremely or very effective.
  • Companies face a wide variety of challenges. Executives cited a wide variety of challenges including problems with collaboration, end-to-end visibility, and justifying investment in supply chain risk programs, among others. However, no single challenge stood out, indicating the need for broad approaches.
  • Many companies lack the latest tools. Current tools and limited adoption of advanced technologies are often constraining companies’ ability to understand and mitigate today’s evolving supply chain risks.

What’s alarming in this report is that even though companies are taking a proactive approach to managing supply chain risks, only about half of the executives surveyed believed their companies are extremely or very effective at managing supply chain risk, including just 13% who considered their companies to be extremely effective. However, when asked which strategies have been most effective, executives most often cited building stronger relationships, building business continuity plans and developing the ability to quickly adapt the production or distribution network.

In all, however, Deloitte’s survey did not reveal the most positive news for companies and how they manage supply chain risk. But if anything, executives can use this information to better understand the weaknesses in today’s supply chain environment. As we’ve seen with past catastrophes and economic troubles, the chain is complex and ever-evolving. Keeping up with changes and eliminating the affect of events is what true supply chain resiliency is.

 

Best Practices for Business Storm Prep

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Winter storm Nemo is approaching the Northeast as, what some are calling, a blizzard for the record books. To prepare, businesses must take into consideration those aspects that will keep their organization up and running — including communication to customers and employees.

To ensure your company is successful at critical communications, Everbridge, an interactive communication and mass notification company, suggests companies:

  • Plan to manage the entire lifecycle of any critical event. Dr. Robert C. Chandler, crisis communication expert, suggests creating a crisis plan that addresses each of the six stages of a crisis: warning, risk assessment, response, management, resolution and recovery.
  • Confirm that you have multiple contact paths for each individual to decrease reliance on any one device.
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    Set delivery options to attempt email and SMS paths first, as cellular and landline infrastructures could be damaged by the storm.

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  • Focus on message construction. Dr. Chandler recommends that message maps consist of three short sentences that convey three key messages in 30 words. SMS messages should be no longer than 120 characters and audio/video needs to convey its message in the first nine seconds.
  • Don’t forget social media. Use social media as an additional communications channel and be sure to monitor social media sites like Twitter to gain situational intelligence that can help emergency response teams.
  • Ensure that regular system and staff testing and preparation procedures are followed including system testing for effectiveness and data accuracy. Staff should be trained to operate the critical communications system from both computer and mobile devices.

Hundreds Arrested in China for Food Safety Violations

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Regulators in China have decided to crack down on food safety violators. Since last month, Chinese police have seized 350 suspects involved in 120 food-related criminal cases. With the Chinese Lunar New Year beginning February 10, and the many celebrations surrounding it, the ministry has focused its efforts on the quality of cooking oil, meat and other food items that find a place on many revelers plates in the holiday season.

According to Chinese Radio International, “the police destroyed more than 220 underground food workshops during the crackdown” and it has organized inspections in supermarkets, food exhibitions, tourist sites and food companies to continue throughout the year. Officials have even gone so far as to offer rewards of up to 300,000 yuan (,200) to people who report on others who violate food safety laws.

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China has long been in the spotlight for food offenses. The 2008 melamine-in-milk incident resulted in the death of six children.

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And in mid-December, KFC came under fire for allegedly supplying stores with chicken containing excess amounts of antiviral drugs and hormones used to accelerate growth.

But these are merely two examples of many and it remains to be seen if the Chinese ministry can get a hold on food safety in a country of 1.3 billion.

The New Reality of Risk

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In wondering what the new year has in store for the insurance industry, Marsh hosted “The New Reality of Risk – U.S. Insurance Markets and Risk Trends in 2013,” a webinar produced on the heels of their Insurance Market Report 2013 publication. The webinar touched on firming in the market, Superstorm Sandy, cat models and workers comp, among other things, with insights from:

  • Dean Klisura, U.S. risk practices leader for Marsh
  • Cliff Rich, managing director in Guy Carpenter’s global business intelligence unit
  • Duncan Ellis, Marsh’s U.S. property practice leader
  • Jon Zaffino, Marsh’s U.S. casualty practice leader
  • Chris Lang, U.S. placement leader for Marsh’s FINPRO practice
  • Claude Yoder, head of Marsh global analytics

Catastrophe Market

“One thing we have seen change dramatically in the past two years relates to cat losses,” said Klisura. As he noted, insured losses over the past 10 years have averaged $50 billion, with a spike in 2011. The industry has experienced two straight years of well above average losses — coupled with feeling the effects of low interest rates and a shaky economy. “However, the industry still remains well capitalized,” Klisura remarked.

Klisura doesn’t envision a hardening environment, but claims certain sectors of the market are in transition. “A few things risk managers should keep an eye on in 2013 are cat exposed property risk, including risk with flood zone exposures — it will be a big one,” said Klisura. He also noted that certain sectors of workers comp market will may experience changes along with complex financial institution risk and competition among insurers, which is expected to remain intense in 2013.

Reinsurance

The reinsurance market at January 1 was characterized as stable. Superstorm Sandy, crop losses and other severe weather outbreaks resulted in global losses of $60 billion, which was less than 2011 losses, but the sector continues to be challenged by the macroeconomic environment — namely, the economy. “Casualty rates increased modestly in 2012 but at January 1, 2013, renewal rates, casualty pricing stabilized,” said Cliff Rich.

Cat Limits

According to the panelists, carriers are being a little more stingy around cat limits. For cat sub limits, they are seeing carriers limiting the amount of flood coverage. For deductibles, they’re seeing a push for per-location deductibles on flood vs traditional per-occurrence deductibles. For premiums, there is renewed pressure on some cat exposed insureds and on a client by client basis. “For 2013, I think it’s much of the same we’ve seen,” said Ellis. “2012 could be the third year in a row that property insurers have not realized a profit. The big unknown? 2013 losses.” There is a potential for “trading” between retention and premium, he explained.

Cat Models

In terms of catastrophe models, Ellis feels they will change to take into account both Irene, which had insured losses of $4.4 billion, and Sandy, which had insured losses of $18 to $25 billion. This drives home the point that insureds should provide high quality data for models. “What I’ve heard is that losses from Sandy are what was expected from modeling,” Ellis said. “But models will change.”

There are several widely used models for wind and earthquake, Ellis pointed out. But that’s not the case with flood, despite flooding being the loss leading peril over the last few years. “There’s nothing consistent market-wide yet,” he said.

Casualty Market 

Jon Zaffino explained that insurer competition is strong. However, challenges may arise from clients with difficult loss experience and certain individual risks, or line of business characteristics. “It’s a tug of war between the technical and trading environment,” he said. “We may see rates flattening in some lines in 2nd half of 2013.”

  • Technical – macro factors such as loos-cost trend, interest rates, etc.
  • Trading – insurance supply/insurer appetite and market depth and breadth

Workers Comp

This segment continues to operate at historically unprofitable rates for insurers. Marsh illustrates this with a graphic based on their client accounts.

“Medical expenses as a percentage of toal claims continues to rise, along with the escalation of prescribtion drug use and abuse,” said Zaffino.” Active pre- and post-loss programs, medical cost containment measures and a variety of other technigues help clients manage their claims.

“The largest trend we’re really seeing in casualty is the need to create a comprehensive view of total cost of risk, or TCOR,” said Yoder. “For workers comp, there is much available data, advances in the way insurers calibrate their underwriting and pricing, and a wave of claims-based modeling. Plus, predictive analytics use in claims modeling is accelerating.”

Directors and Officers 

According to Chris Lang, rates in the management liability market are trending upward. As 2012 progressed, leading insueres obtained upwards of 10% increases, and average program rate increases of 5%. “Smaller sized market companies are experiencing higher rate increases than are larger companies,” said Lang. “In 2013, expect insurers’ rate discipline to continue.”

Regulatory actions are increasing. According to NERA, in 2012, settlements rose 6.6% compared with 2011, to 714.