About Caroline McDonald

Caroline McDonald is a writer and former senior editor of the Risk Management Monitor and Risk Management magazine.
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Japan Earthquake Causes Parts Shortage, Closing 4 GM Plants

The earthquake in Japan earlier this month has impacted the supply chain of General Motors, causing four plants in North America to close temporarily because of a shortage of parts from Japan, the company reported.

GM said in a statement that its manufacturing operations are expected to be down for two weeks beginning April 25 in Spring Hill, Tennessee; Lordstown, Ohio; Fairfax, Kansas andGM logo the Oshawa Flex Assembly in Canada.

The temporary adjustment is not expected to have “any material impact on GM’s full-year production plans in North America,” GM said. In addition, the company “does not expect a material impact to its second quarter or full-year financial results for GM North America.”

Japan’s Kyushu Island was rocked by a 7.0 temblor on April 16, killing 58 people and injuring about 900, according to AIR Worldwide. The quake was the strongest to strike Japan since 2011, when a massive 9.0-magnitude offshore earthquake unleashed a tsunami that killed 18,000 people in the country’s northeast and triggered meltdowns at a nuclear power plant in Fukushima, the New York Times reported.

AIR said the earthquake is expected to result in insured losses between $1.7 billion and $2.9 billion. Those losses only reflect insured physical damage to onshore property (residential, commercial/industrial, mutual), both structures and their contents, from ground shaking, fire-following and liquefaction, AIR said.

The Japan Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA) estimates that more than 3,900 residences and 120 non-residential buildings were damaged or destroyed, a number of mudslides resulted, and 14 fires were attributed to the temblors.

On the same day, April 16, a 7.

8 earthquake struck the central coast of Ecuador, killing 570 people and injuring more than 4,700. AIR estimates losses from that quake between $325 million and $850 million. More than 1,100 buildings are reported to have been destroyed and more than 800 damaged.

Even though they happened just hours apart, the two quakes are not related. The Times reported:

Are the two somehow related?

No. The two quakes occurred about 9,000 miles apart. That’s far too distant for there to be any connection between them.

Large earthquakes can, and usually do, lead to more quakes — but only in the same region, along or near the same fault. These are called aftershocks. Sometimes a large quake can be linked to a smaller quake that occurred earlier, called a foreshock. In the case of the Japanese quake, seismologists believe that several magnitude-6 quakes in the same region on the previous day were foreshocks to the Saturday event.

Cyber, Regulation Seen as Top Emerging Risks, Report Finds

SAN DIEGO—Forecasting risk is not expected to get easier in the next three years, with cyberattacks and regulation topping the list of emerging risks, according to a new report published jointly by Marsh and RIMS.

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The 13th annual Excellence in Risk Management report found that while risk professionals are increasingly relied upon to identify and assess emerging risks, there are still organizational and other barriers to identifying those risks. In fact, nearly half of survey respondents—48%—predicted that forecasting critical business risks will be more difficult three years from now, while just over one-quarter said it would be the same.

“Whether emerging risks are on your doorstep, around the corner, or on the far horizon, they have the potential to catch organizations unaware,” said Brian Elowe, Marsh’s U.S. client executive leader and co-author of the report. “It’s important for risk professionals to maintain awareness of global risk trends, and to make the connection to their organizations’ business strategy.”

Where do risk professionals turn when trying to understand the impacts of emerging risks on their organization? According to the report:
One of the goals of this year’s Excellence survey’s goal was to better understand how organizations view the emerging risks facing them, what tools they use and the barriers they face in assessing, modeling, and understanding the risks. According to the findings, a majority of respondents—61%—cited cyber-attacks as the likely source of their organization’s next critical risk. This was followed by regulation, cited by 58% of the respondents, and talent availability, cited by 40% of the respondents.

Based on survey responses and insights from numerous focus group discussions, it became clear that risk professionals generally agree on the importance of identifying emerging risks, and also that there is no clearly established framework for doing so. More can be done to better identify, assess, and manage the impact emerging risks may have on organizations.

For example, a majority—60%—of the risk management respondents said they use claims-based reviews as one of the primary means to assess emerging risks, compared to 38% who said they use predictive analytics.

“The widespread use of claims-based reviews means that a majority of organizations are relying on studying past incidents to predict how emerging risks will behave rather than using predictive analytic techniques like stochastic modeling and game theory to help inform their decision making,” Elowe said.

Survey respondents also cited several barriers to understanding the impact of emerging risks on their business strategy.

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Decisions with lack of cross-organization collaboration ranked first among risk professional respondents.

“Lack of collaboration across the organization is still an issue for many risk professionals. On the other hand, breaking down silos has become less of a concern for executives,” said Carol Fox, vice president of strategic initiatives for RIMS and co-author of the report. “Tackling emerging risks often requires creative yet pragmatic approaches. It has to encompass internal cross-functional conversations — formal and informal — around the intersection of risk and strategy, senior-leadership engagement, and tapping into external information sources. Risk professionals are encouraged to broaden the scope and collaboration around emerging risk issues within their organizations.”

According to the report:

As the risk environment becomes increasingly complex and more entwined with financial decisions, risk strategy is increasingly a boardroom issue. As we have seen in past Excellence surveys, senior leaders’ expectations of the risk management department have increased in everything from leading enterprise risk management to providing better risk quantification and analysis.

However, while more is being asked of risk professionals, investment is not necessarily keeping pace. For example, the percentage that say they expect to hire more staff dropped to 25% this year from 37% when we asked in 2015. “We’ve all experienced this elevation of risk management at our institutions, but…as we are battling for budget, it becomes pretty easy for risk management to get pushed over to the side,” said the assistant vice president of risk management at a major university.

The survey is based on more than 700 responses to an online survey and a series of focus groups with risk executives in January and February 2016.

Can You Spot a Liar?

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SAN DIEGO—Just to be clear, we’re all liars. What’s more, the better we think we are at spotting a lie, the worst we are in reality, lying expert Pam Meyer is quick to point out.

Meyer, certified fraud examiner and a keynote speaker here at the annual RIMS conference, said that we are also gullible to lies.

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“Ask yourself, I am hungry for Meyer, Pamela-HR PhotoX,” she said. Once we figure out what our own weakness is, we can become less of a target. “Pursue that hunger,” she said.

There are lies and then there are lies. There are the corporate fraud kind, which cost billions annually, the lies we use every day to protect ourselves or others—lying about small things to a partner or people we know.

To spot a liar, she looks for too much or too little detail in people’s statements, speaking in the wrong tense and repeating a question to stall for time—think Bill Clinton, whose formal language used when denying any wrongdoing with Monica Lewinsky gave him away; Susan Smith, who drowned her two children, but spoke in the past tense about them before a crime was proven; and Bill Cosby, who when asked if he committed any crimes against his accusers, completely dodged the question, giving a nonsensical answer.

She also looks for:

  • Lip smacking/biting
  • Grooming gesture
  • Hand wringing
  • Excessive sweating
  • Closed eyes
  • Slumped posture
  • Lowered Voice

Body language cues can also include giving the opposite of the words—such as shaking the head while saying yes or shrugging the shoulders while telling a confident, good story.

When trying to determine honesty or deception, look for these attitude giveaways:

  • An honest person will be enthusiastic and help brainstorm to discover the real suspect.
  • An honest person will be infuriated throughout the whole process if they suspect they are being accused – it won’t just be in flashes.
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  • An honest person will want a strict punishment for the person who committed the crimes.
  • In contrast, a deceptive person will talk only in chronological order and get confused when asked to tell it differently, changing the order.
  • A deceptive person will be withdrawn from the conversation.
  • A deceptive person will add way too much irrelevant detail.

Spotting a liar isn’t always possible, but when you practice lie-spotting skills by combining the science of recognizing deception with the art of looking and listening, you exempt yourself from collaborating in a lie, Meyers said. “You start being a little bit more explicit, because you signal to everyone around you that your world will be an honest one, where truth is strengthened and falsehood is recognized and marginalized.

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Weakened Competition Moderates U.S. Commercial Rates

Competition in the U.S. commercial insurance market was checked in March with the composite rate index showing slightly decreased price-cutting after three consecutive months at minus 4%, according to MarketScout data.

Commercial property, inland marine, general liability, umbrella, workers compensation, andbarometer professional lines all moderated by 1%.

“One month certainly is not a trend but insurers did moderate their aggressive pricing in March,” noted Richard Kerr, CEO of MarketScout.

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By industry classification, manufacturing, contracting, and service all moderated by 1% as compared to the prior month.

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Habitational rates were minus 4% in March, compared to minus 6% in February.

Small accounts (up to ,000 premium) were down 3% compared to down 4% the previous month.

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Large accounts ($250,000 to $1,000,000) and medium accounts ($25,001 to $250,000) were down 4% compared to down 5% in February. Jumbo accounts were unchanged.

MarketScout summary:
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