Author Archives: Caroline McDonald

About Caroline McDonald

Caroline McDonald is a writer and former senior editor of the Risk Management Monitor and Risk Management magazine.
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Aug. P&C Rate Holds at Minus 1%; Auto, Transportation Up

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The U.S. property and casualty composite rate for August was stable at minus 1%, the same as July, MarketScout reported. By industry classification, manufacturing, habitational and energy each moderated 1% , while all otherBarometer industry classifications remained unchanged.

“While the month to month composite rate is stable, there is clear movement in commercial auto and transportation accounts with each showing a year over year rate increase of plus 3%,” said Richard Kerr, CEO of MarketScout. “Insurers have decided it is time for commercial auto and transportation accounts to start paying up.”

By coverage, commercial property, workers compensation and professional liability each moderated 1% in August—to minus 1% for property, minus 1% for workers compensation and flat for professional liability. Commercial auto rates went up to plus 3%, while all other coverages remained unchanged, MarketScout said.

Coverage class 1

By account size the only adjustment was for accounts with more than million premium, which adjusted from down 3% in July to down 2% in August.

Account size 3

Industry class 2

Active Shooter Preparations Lagging, Study Finds

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Between 2014 and 2015, the United States experienced nearly six times as many active shooter incidents as it did between 2000 and 2001, according to the FBI.

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The report, Active Shooter Preparedness by Everbridge, found that even though U.S. companies are overwhelmingly concerned about violence and violent acts in the workplace, they remain unprepared.

Out of 888 organizations surveyed about their safety plans and ability to manage an active shooter situation, only 21% felt that they were prepared; and 79% said their organizations were at best somewhat prepared for an active shooter incident. Even among those who feel they are prepared, only 7% are “very much prepared,” Everbridge said.
Prepared-1

Preparedness is important, as companies cannot rely solely on police and other government assistance.

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According to an FBI study of active shooter events between 2000 and 2013, 60% ended before the police arrived. Adequate preparedness requires communication and practice plans to make sure responders know who is at risk and that people know what to do if an event happens.

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Despite this, close to 40% of respondents said they did not have a communications plan in place for active shooter events.
Plan 2

The survey also found that executives of organizations are much more concerned about employee or student safety than they were two years ago—the overwhelming majority (79%) said they were.
Chart 3

Other Findings:

  • 69% of respondents view an active shooter incident as a potential top threat to their company or organization. Workplace violence was cited as a top threat by 62%.
  • Communicating to people who may be in an impacted building and confirming their safety was seen as the biggest challenge during an active shooter situation (71% of respondents).
  • Safety concerns are growing: 79% of executives/leaders are more concerned about employee or student safety than they were two years ago; 73% said that employees or students are willing to exchange some aspects of privacy for enhanced security.
  • 61% do not run any active shooter preparedness drills at all.

Small Villages Hit Hardest by Italian Earthquake

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A strong 6.2 magnitude earthquake that stuck Central Italy in the early morning hours of Aug. 24 has caused about 250 deaths and hundreds of injuries. The temblor stuck 10km (6.2 miles) southeast of Norcia and 100km (62.13 miles) northeast of Rome. Areas with the most damage are smaller, older towns consisting of unreinforced masonry buildings. One such town was Amatrice, which the town’s mayor has said “no longer exists.”

Dozens of aftershocks have since occurred in the area—the strongest a magnitude 5.5. Because it was a shallow quake, occurring about six miles below the surface, it was more destructive, the New York Times reported.
Italy map

Map: USGS.gov

The vicinity of Wednesday’s temblor has also experienced significant earthquakes in the past, including one with a magnitude of 6.3 near the town of L’Aquila in 2009. According to the Times. That quake killed at least 295 people, injured more than 1,000 and left 55,000 homeless. Bloomberg reported that only about 2% of the economic loss from the 2009 quake was insured.

Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide said that Italy’s nonlife insurance market is the eighth-largest in the world and the fifth largest in Europe, and its property insurance market is the second-largest nonlife market in the country after automobile.

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Earthquake coverage, however, is often not included in standard homeowners’ policies and is typically issued as an extension of fire policies. Earthquake coverage for industrial and commercial structures may be offered for an additional premium, which varies by region.

Fitch Ratings said on Aug. 26 that it expects to see limited impact on Italian insurers. According to Fitch:

We estimate insured losses of EUR100 million-EUR200 million, arising mainly from property lines. Our estimate reflects the low density of population and businesses and limited insurance coverage in the region. Claims of this magnitude would not have a material impact on Italian insurers’ underwriting results or credit profiles.

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Italian non-life insurers wrote EUR2.

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3 billion of gross written premiums of property insurance in 2015.

Italy has declared a state of emergency in the region hit by the earthquake and the government has pledged EUR50 million for first aid. The declaration of a state of emergency means that certain losses will be covered by a state fund for emergencies, limiting losses for insurers.

We expect the insured losses to be EUR40 million-EUR80 million for primary insurers and EUR60 million-EUR120 million for reinsurers. A similar event that struck a nearby area in 2009, where the insurance exposure was higher, caused insured losses of around EUR250 million.

Planning for Extreme Floods

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Flooding

Companies in the United States should begin preparing now for climate change, which is predicted to cause extreme weather conditions, according to FM Global’s report, The Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flooding. As the climate warms, areas that are dry will become drier and moist areas will see higher precipitation. The characteristics of precipitation will also change. “We feel cli­mate change not so much through subtle changes in the mean, but through changes in the extremes,” MIT Prof.

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Kerry Emanuel said in the report.

While the overall amount of precipitation might remain the same, it will become less frequent but more intense.

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A specific region of the country that has historically seen 10 inches of rain each May might see the same volume that month, for example, but those 10 inches may occur in a much shorter period of time, increasing the risk of flooding, according to the study.

By the end of the century, as temperatures rise, it is possible for precipitation to change by 8%, which could exacerbate wildfires in some areas and flooding in others.

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The danger is that, because these extreme events are infrequent, they lack urgency, so planning can easily be put off. Risk managers are advised to check their facility’s resilience in terms of the building’s ability to withstand flooding, focusing on 500-year flood levels rather than 100-year.

Extreme wet or dry conditions can affect a company’s buildings, machinery, data centers, transportation networks, supply chains, people and sales. Organizations should focus on water management—diverting water from property, optimizing drainage and protecting water supplies, and they should consider new weather extremes when managing supply chains.

Flood hazard mapping is increasingly proving helpful as understanding of water risk is improving, Louis Gritzo, vice president and manager of research with FM Global, wrote in “Mitigating Evolving Water Threats,” from this month’s Risk Management Magazine. Advances in technology have led to improvements in weather satellites, geospatial data acquisition and physical model development, making old models obsolete. Anyone working with information from a flood map that is more than 15 years old should consider an update, he wrote.

Those with a flood map should make sure it includes potential coastal flooding areas as well as river flooding, also taking into account the local topography of coastal locations. “Areas along the coast that are surrounded by hills and mountains will likely experience far more wind-blown water (storm surge), as the local terrain directs more water in spaces between steeper slopes,” Gritzo wrote.