About Bill Coffin

Bill Coffin is the former publisher of Risk Management magazine.
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The Spencer Eductional Foundation Turns 30

Last week, nearly 600 guests gathered at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in Manhattan to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the Spencer Educational Foundation, the leading nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing the education of tomorrow’s risk managers.

Spencer Educational Foundation Gala

Collegial excitement filled the Waldorf as professionals from across the risk management profession united on a night filled with networking, rememberance and celebration of the foundation’s rich history as an organization that has made possible the educational dreams of many aspiring risk managers.

Throughout the evening, a number of presenters took to the stage to draw attention to the foundation’s many ongoing activites. Current Foundation scholars as well as past scholars and foundation president Roger Andrews and chairwoman Donna Galer.

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The highlight of the evening, however, was the keynote speech given by gala honoree J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr., chairman, president and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Noting his own company’s long-standing commitment to internships and industry education, Gallagher reiterated not only the importance of supporting education into the risk profession, but the importance of the risk profession itself. To underscore this commitment to excellence, Gallagher announced that his firm would donate  $100,000 to fund the creation of the Robert E. Gallagher and John P. Gallagher Scholarship to provide funding for students of risk management disciplines.

“We are grateful for the tremendous generosity of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., and know that its contribution will be instrumental in cultivating a dynamic next generation of risk and insurance talent,” said Donna Galer, chairwoman of Spencer Educational Foundation, Inc. “This scholarship will be a continuous reminder of the long history of support Arthur J. Gallagher & Co has given Spencer Educational Foundation. We thank Pat Gallagher and his team.”

Since its formation in 1979, the Spencer Educational Foundation has awarded 454 student scholarships totaling $3.6 million and university grants totaling $1.3 million in the United States, Canada and United Kingdom. The Foundation will begin accepting scholarship applications for the 2010-2011 academic year in November 2009.

“My father, John Gallagher, and my uncle, Bob Gallagher, were lifelong proponents of bringing talented young people into the insurance and risk management industries,” said J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr., chairman, president and chief executive officer of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., who was honored at the gala for his support of the Foundation. “They were committed to giving college students an opportunity to learn about our business, the many career paths it offers and how it impacts society as a whole. Through the Robert E. Gallagher and John P. Gallagher Scholarship program, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is helping to ensure that their legacy lives on.

For more photos and coverage of the Spencer gala, be sure to read the RIMS Society page of the November issue of Risk Management.

Thoughts on CEI’s Stance on Catastrophe Funding

In the most recent issue of Business Insurance, Competitive Enterprise Institute senior fellow Eli Lehrer offers his thoughts on why exactly a federal natural catastrophe backstop would be a very, very bad idea. The CEI has been carpet bombing trade and mainstream media outlets in a nonstop campaign to tell anybody who will listen that the only thing worse than a hurricane wiping out coastal property is for the federal government to pick up the tab for it.

While Lehrer’s BI interview is well-reasoned and even worded, not all of the CEI’s efforts in the arena have been. Earlier this year, the CEI launched NoBeachHouseBailouts.org, which appears to promote itself on the specious notion that a national catastrophe defense fund, such as the one outlined in the Homeowner’s Defense Act of 2008, would primarily benefit the likes of super-rich celebrities seeking government bailout funds for their beach-front mansions. It’s the kind of cynical sloganeering we’d expect in a nasty political campaign (Lehrer himself was a speechwriter for Bill Frist, R-TN), especially since it goes for a gut reaction instead of considering the facts.

When we study poverty rates along all coastal counties subject to Atlantic hurricanes (figures provided by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Data Service, 2007) we find that 10 of the 19 states with coastal risk exposures to Atlantic hurricanes have higher poverty rates on the coast than the statewide average. And across all coastal states subject to hurricanes, the average county poverty rate in 2007 is 12.4%, only 0.6% below the national rate.

More to the point, if we look at regional data, an even more interesting picture emerges. Coastal poverty rates are lower than the national average almost across the board in states from Virginia through Maine — those northeastern states that have a much milder hurricane history than their more southern counterparts.

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Coastal poverty rates from North Carolina through Texas — the states where hurricanes make landfall most frequently — were almost entirely above state averages. And this, in states where the statewide averages themselves were universally several points higher than the national poverty average.

Bottom line: a national catastrophe defense fund is meant to provide for those who cannot afford to rebound from a hurricane strike with the means to do so.

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The states that would benefit from this the most are poorer southern states that already have higher-than-average rates of poverty compared to the rest of the nation, and whose coasts are even more poverty-stricken. To suggest that a national catastrophe defense fund would primarily bailout celebrities such as Donald Trump, Tiger Woods and John Travolta, as the CEI does, displays a certain ignorance of the wider economic reality of coastal risk.

It is tempting indeed to suggest that if people do not wish to deal with coastal risk, they should simply move away from the coast. However, such wishful thinking flies in the face of global human behavior, which is showing more movement toward coastal areas than at any other time in the history of our species.

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Coastal risk cannot be dismissed with a wave of the hand, nor is it primarily borne by those with more than enough personal resources to cope with the risks.

If the CEI is so bothered by the thought of millionaires benefiting from a catastrophe defense fund, then a more reasoned approach would be to lobby for a condition exempting homeowners with single property values over a certain amount, on the basis that such property owners already have enough to afford proper levels of insurance, or can finance their risk independently, rather than argue to deny our nation’s coastal poor the benefit of government relief when the next major hurricane strikes them.

People Power

At the moment, a substantial amount of public outcry, including riots and mass demonstrations, are being reported throughout Iran as supporters of presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi have taken to the streets, protesting the outcome of that country’s recent presidential election. The official announcement from the Iranian government that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the election in a landslide immediately threw up a number of red flags indicating possible voter fraud.

From a distance, the situation looks pretty unsavory, with riot police beating down protesters, foreign journalists getting hassled by interior security agents, and even reports that the BBC Persia satellite link is being jammed from somewhere within Iran itself. All of this points to a regime that clearly has a stake in keeping a lid on things, which one must assume could include a questionable electoral outcome. Why else employ such heavy security?

While the Western world in particular raises questions over this situation, the business implications of the election pose a less headline-worthy but potentially more serious impact. Iran is currently OPEC’s second-largest petroleum producer and, as such, remains heavily dependent on world oil prices.

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Fluctuation in price per barrel has taken a heavy toll on Iran, which supports its internal economy through heavy public spending.

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According to the Coface Handbook of Country Risk 2009, Iran experiences inflation in excess of 25%, thanks in part to poor governance and the long-term impact of international sanctions against the country. It is that very inflation, among other things, that has driven so much discontent within the country. And it seems likely that if the current election results stand as is, or if Iran’s recently announced probe into them proves to be nothing more than a charade, additional sanctions could follow.

What will happen when one of the world’s leading oil producers is put under even greater international economic pressure? What will happen when its own economy worsens? What will happen when an entire generation of citizens no longer fear the state’s ability to keep the peace? It all adds up to a most unusual display of instability in a country that holds the keys to a great deal of economic power. As we saw during the last two years of oil fluctuation, weird things can happen when the price of oil goes off the rails.

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And what’s happening in Iran is looking more and more like a train wreck.

Feeling Sick

Well, it’s finally happened.

Last week, the A(H1N1) virus (which is still being referred to as “swine flu” by a number of media outlets, including the BBC) became a formal pandemic.

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The World Health Organization made the announcement in an emergency meeting after cases of A(H1N1) rose sharply in Australia last week.

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At present, A(H1N1) is present in 74 countries, and there are nearly 28,000 confirmed cases of infection. The overall impact of the disease, however, has been fairly manageable, causing mild to moderate illness in the vast majority of cases. Concerns over the disease have caused school shutdowns in many countries, including the United States, and it all but put Mexico City under total lockdown back in April when the disease first gained global media coverage.

As this article by the BBC suggests, there has been some dissonance between the general public concern over a possible A(H1N1) pandemic and the effects the pandemic has actually delivered.

Long story short: the pandemic warning system was really meant to alert the public to a genuinely dangerous outbreak along the lines of avian flu, that could cause widespread death and hospitalization. Thankfully, A(H1N1) has not done that, but as this blog reported earlier, it has caused a fair bit if collateral damage among the pork industry because of its unfortunate (and inaccurate) “swine flu” moniker.

Ultimately, the true weight of the pandemic should be kept in perspective.

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Though the disease has killed and spread globally, its effects still pale in comparison to any number of more serious disease outbreaks throughout the world, such as cholera in Zimbabwe (the result of that country’s government utter failure to manage anything), dengue fever in Argentina (which is taking its toll politically on President Cirstina Kirchner) and the ever-present risk of malaria, which in 2006 alone sickened nearly 250 million people and killed some 881,000.

After A(H1N1) runs its course, the media (and this blog as well) will undoubtedly get rapped on the knuckles for overblown coverage of a modest disease. “Pandemic” is a measure of a disease’s breadth of exposure, not its severity of illness. And while the A(H1N1) story has proven to be not nearly as serious as early reports warned, better that we go on alert wrongly than pretend a risk does not exist.